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Week 3 · Saturday, September 19 · 7:00 PM ET

Western Michigan at Rice

Western Michigan -9.5At Rice · Mid-American · American Athletic
Total 43.5
The read

Western Michigan is favored by 9.5 on the road against Rice, and the total is 43.5. Our number has Western Michigan by 13.6, so the lean is Western Michigan -9.5. A lean, not a play. Western Michigan has covered 15 of 19 as a favorite, 2023-2026, better than the 8-11 they are everywhere else.

Spread
Western Michigan -9.5
Rice +9.5
Total
43.5
Over and under
Moneyline
Rice +310
Western Michigan -442.5

Our number vs the market

The lean
Western Michigan -9.5
A lean, not a play
Our number
Western Michigan by 13.6
Market has Western Michigan -9.5
Gap
4.1 pts
Between our number and the market

College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.

How each team covers in this spot

Western Michigan
Western Michigan has covered 15 of 19 as a favorite, 2023-2026.
15 of 19, 79% in this spot
8 of 19, 42% in every other spot
Rice
Rice has gone over 8 of 11 at home when our model fades them, 2023-2026.
8 of 11, 73% in this spot
10 of 27, 37% in every other spot

Against the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.

Player trends that apply to this game

Jalen BuckleyRB has 9 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.
9 of 10, 90% in this spot · 2024-2025
8 of 18, 44% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one. Game logs through last season; this season joins the file as it is played.