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Week 3 · Friday, September 18 · 7:30 PM ET

Miami at Wake Forest

Miami -20.8At Wake Forest · ACC
Total 56.5
The read

Miami is favored by 20.8 on the road against Wake Forest, and the total is 56.5. Miami comes in ranked. Our number has Miami by 13.8, so the lean is Wake Forest +20.8. A lean, not a play. Miami has covered 9 of 10 with more rest than the opponent, 2023-2026, better than the 13-15 they are everywhere else.

Spread
Miami -20.8
Wake Forest +20.8
Total
56.5
Over and under
Moneyline
Wake Forest +850
Miami -1625

Our number vs the market

The lean
Wake Forest +20.8
A lean, not a play
Our number
Miami by 13.8
Market has Wake Forest +20.8
Gap
7 pts
Between our number and the market

College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.

How each team covers in this spot

Miami
Miami has covered 9 of 10 with more rest than the opponent, 2023-2026.
9 of 10, 90% in this spot
13 of 28, 46% in every other spot
Wake Forest
Nothing about this spot has moved their cover rate. That is a finding too.

Against the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.

Player trends that apply to this game

Malachi ToneyWR has 5 of his last 6 games on the road with 6+ catches.
5 of 6, 83% in this spot · 2025-2026
4 of 11, 36% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one. Game logs through last season; this season joins the file as it is played.