Weekly Lines · 2026
Week 16.
4 games, 1 play posted before kickoff. 0 of 4 played so far. Our number on the three biggest disagreements is free; the rest is the Betting Pass until the week settles.
This week's plays: no graded plays yet. Season through week 16: no graded plays yet.
| Game | Market | Total | Our number | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 BUF @  DENFri, Dec 25 16:30 ET | DEN +1.5 | 46.5 | DEN -4.2 | Fri, Dec 25 16:30 ET |
 LA @  SEAFri, Dec 25 20:15 ET | SEA +1.5 | 45.5 | SEA -2.5 | Fri, Dec 25 20:15 ET |
 GB @  CHIFri, Dec 25 13:00 ET | CHI -1.5 | 47.5 | CHI -4.2 | Fri, Dec 25 13:00 ET |
 HOU @  PHIThu, Dec 24 20:15 ET | PHI -2.5 | 38.5 | PHI ••• | Thu, Dec 24 20:15 ET |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
GB @ CHI - model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, at home, more rest than the opponent 53-32 (62%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, more rest than the opponent, better coach 44-27 (62%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, more rest than the opponent 85-54 (61%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. Every play is graded at the number we posted before kickoff, never at the closing line. A TEST rule is pre-registered to settle a question in public and is never counted in the record.