Weekly Lines · 2026
Week 5.
15 games, 3 plays posted before kickoff. 0 of 15 played so far. Our number on the three biggest disagreements is free; the rest is the Betting Pass until the week settles.
This week's plays: no graded plays yet. Season through week 5: no graded plays yet.
| Game | Market | Total | Our number | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 DET @  ARISun, Oct 11 16:25 ET | ARI +8.5 | 48.5 | ARI -0.4 | Sun, Oct 11 16:25 ET |
 CIN @  MIASun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | MIA +6 | 49.5 | MIA -1.5 | Sun, Oct 11 13:00 ET |
 BAL @  ATLSun, Oct 11 20:20 ET | ATL +4.5 | 48.5 | ATL -1.7 | Sun, Oct 11 20:20 ET |
 PHI @  JAXSun, Oct 11 09:30 ET | JAX +1.5 | 45.5 | JAX ••• | Sun, Oct 11 09:30 ET |
 MIN @  NOSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | NO +1.5 | 44.5 | NO ••• | Sun, Oct 11 13:00 ET |
 DEN @  LACSun, Oct 11 16:05 ET | LAC -2.5 | 44.5 | LAC ••• | Sun, Oct 11 16:05 ET |
 CHI @  GBSun, Oct 11 16:25 ET | GB -3 | 49.5 | GB ••• | Sun, Oct 11 16:25 ET |
 LV @  NESun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | NE -8.5 | 44.5 | NE ••• | Sun, Oct 11 13:00 ET |
 CLE @  NYJSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | NYJ -2.5opened -1.5 | 39.5 | NYJ ••• | Sun, Oct 11 13:00 ET |
 HOU @  TENSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | TEN +3.5 | 43.5 | TEN ••• | Sun, Oct 11 13:00 ET |
 NYG @  WASSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | WAS -2.5opened -1.5 | 48.5 | WAS ••• | Sun, Oct 11 13:00 ET |
 TB @  DALThu, Oct 8 20:15 ET | DAL -3.5 | 52.5 | DAL ••• | Thu, Oct 8 20:15 ET |
 BUF @  LAMon, Oct 12 20:15 ET | LA -3 | 53.5 | LA ••• | Mon, Oct 12 20:15 ET |
 SF @  SEASun, Oct 11 16:25 ET | SEA -3.5 | 48.5 | SEA ••• | Sun, Oct 11 16:25 ET |
 IND @  PITSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET | PIT -2.5 | 47.5 | PIT ••• | Sun, Oct 11 13:00 ET |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
MIN @ NO - model fades them by 3.0+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 22-14 (61%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 50-33 (60%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, better coach, in a dome 42-28 (60%)
DET @ ARI TOTALCLE @ NYJ TOTALRead it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. Every play is graded at the number we posted before kickoff, never at the closing line. A TEST rule is pre-registered to settle a question in public and is never counted in the record.