Game lines · 2026

NFL Week 5 Game Lines and Plays, 2026

15 games, 25 official picks on the card. 0 of 15 played. Our number on every game; the card opens with the Pass until kickoff.

Game lines

Game	Line	Our number	Final
TB @ DALThu, Oct 8 20:15 ET	DAL -9.5o/u 48.5 · opened -3.5	DAL -3.3	See the matchup →
1 on the card, 5 prop spots, 1 on test on this game. The full sheet: the plan, every line, the script →The play on this game opens with the Betting Pass. Unlock it, $5.41/wk ($119/season)
DEN @ LACSun, Oct 11 16:05 ET	LAC +3.5o/u 41.5 · opened -2.5	LAC -1.7	See the matchup →
1 on the card, 3 prop spots on this game. The full sheet: the plan, every line, the script →The play on this game opens with the Betting Pass. Unlock it, $5.41/wk ($119/season)
BAL @ ATLSun, Oct 11 20:20 ET	ATL -3.5o/u 43.5 · opened +4.5	ATL +1.7	See the matchup →
2 on the card, 1 prop spot, 1 on test on this game. The full sheet: the plan, every line, the script →The plays on this game open with the Betting Pass. Unlock it, $5.41/wk ($119/season)
PHI @ JAXSun, Oct 11 09:30 ET	JAX -7.5o/u 41.5 · opened +1.5	JAX -2.5	See the matchup →
3 on the card, 2 prop spots, 3 on test on this game. The full sheet: the plan, every line, the script →The plays on this game open with the Betting Pass. Unlock it, $5.41/wk ($119/season)
HOU @ TENSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET	TEN +7.5o/u 38.5 · opened +3.5	TEN +4.2	See the matchup →
1 on the card, 4 prop spots, 1 on test on this game. The full sheet: the plan, every line, the script →The play on this game opens with the Betting Pass. Unlock it, $5.41/wk ($119/season)
SF @ SEASun, Oct 11 16:25 ET	SEA -3o/u 45.5 · opened -3.5	SEA +0.2	See the matchup →
1 on the card, 2 prop spots on this game. The full sheet: the plan, every line, the script →The play on this game opens with the Betting Pass. Unlock it, $5.41/wk ($119/season)
BUF @ LAMon, Oct 12 20:15 ET	LA -3o/u 54.5	LA +0.1	See the matchup →
3 on the card, 0 prop spots on this game. The full sheet: the plan, every line, the script →The plays on this game open with the Betting Pass. Unlock it, $5.41/wk ($119/season)
CHI @ GBSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET	GB +1.5o/u 45.5 · opened -3	GB -1.1	See the matchup →
1 on the card, 3 prop spots on this game. The full sheet: the plan, every line, the script →The play on this game opens with the Betting Pass. Unlock it, $5.41/wk ($119/season)
DET @ ARISun, Oct 11 16:25 ET	ARI +5.5o/u 54.5 · opened +8.5	ARI +3.1	See the matchup →
1 on the card, 1 prop spot on this game. The full sheet: the plan, every line, the script →The play on this game opens with the Betting Pass. Unlock it, $5.41/wk ($119/season)
NYG @ WASSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET	WAS -3.5o/u 41.5 · opened -1.5	WAS -1.3	See the matchup →
0 on the card, 6 prop spots, 2 on test on this game. The full sheet: the plan, every line, the script →
CLE @ NYJSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET	NYJ -1.5o/u 39.5	NYJ -3.6	See the matchup →
1 on the card, 1 prop spot, 1 on test on this game. The full sheet: the plan, every line, the script →The play on this game opens with the Betting Pass. Unlock it, $5.41/wk ($119/season)
IND @ PITSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET	PIT -2.5o/u 44.5	PIT -0.8	See the matchup →
2 on the card, 3 prop spots, 2 on test on this game. The full sheet: the plan, every line, the script →The plays on this game open with the Betting Pass. Unlock it, $5.41/wk ($119/season)
LV @ NESun, Oct 11 13:00 ET	NE -3.5o/u 45.5 · opened -8.5	NE -4.2	See the matchup →
4 on the card, 1 prop spot on this game. The full sheet: the plan, every line, the script →The plays on this game open with the Betting Pass. Unlock it, $5.41/wk ($119/season)
MIN @ NOSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET	NO +2.5o/u 41.5 · opened +1.5	NO +2.7	See the matchup →
2 on the card, 2 prop spots, 1 on test on this game. The full sheet: the plan, every line, the script →The plays on this game open with the Betting Pass. Unlock it, $5.41/wk ($119/season)
CIN @ MIASun, Oct 11 13:00 ET	MIA +6.5o/u 42.5 · opened +6	MIA +6.4	See the matchup →
2 on the card, 1 prop spot on this game. The full sheet: the plan, every line, the script →The plays on this game open with the Betting Pass. Unlock it, $5.41/wk ($119/season)

Market and our number as posted before kickoff; the closing line and cover show once a game settles. Triggers is how much we have on the game: click it.

Matchups

One page per game: the line and how it moved, who is out, where the two teams collide, and every trend and angle on it.

TB @

DALDAL -9.5 · o/u 48.56 triggersThu, Oct 8 20:15 ET

PHI @

JAXJAX -7.5 · o/u 41.55 triggersSun, Oct 11 09:30 ET

CHI @

GBGB +1.5 · o/u 45.54 triggersSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET

CIN @

MIAMIA +6.5 · o/u 42.53 triggersSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET

CLE @

NYJNYJ -1.5 · o/u 39.52 triggersSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET

HOU @

TENTEN +7.5 · o/u 38.55 triggersSun, Oct 11 13:00 ET

Model trends

89 fire in week 5. Thursday has 7. Logged before kickoff, graded after. The number is confidence, where 50 is a coin flip; the bright bar is this spot, the faded bar is everywhere else. Every card opens its game.

Cut it

33 of the player lines are behind the Betting Pass ($5.41 a week, $119 for the season). The first two, every trend and our number on every game are open.

Thursday 1 game · 7 fire

Buccaneers at CowboysThu 8:15 PM ET

7Sheet →

player lineBetting Pass

79Dak Prescott: over a posted line, passing yards

9 of 13, 69% in this spot

3 of 15, 20% everywhere else

Over · QB · DALTB at DAL, Thu, Oct 8TB allows #7 to QBs, 1.11x league (249.6 vs 225.7 a game)

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2025 wk 2	vs NYG	361.0	yes
2025 wk 4	vs GB	319.0	yes
2025 wk 7	vs WAS	264.0	no
2025 wk 9	vs ARI	250.0	no
2025 wk 12	vs PHI	354.0	yes
2025 wk 13	vs KC	320.0	yes
2025 wk 15	vs MIN	294.0	yes
2025 wk 16	vs LAC	244.0	no
2026 wk 2	vs WAS	279.0	yes
2026 wk 3	vs BAL	276.0	yes

player lineBetting Pass

75Kenneth Gainwell: over a posted line, catches

11 of 13, 85% in this spot

11 of 23, 48% everywhere else

Over · RB · TBTB at DAL, Thu, Oct 8DAL allows #9 to RBs, 1.13x league (4.8 vs 4.3 a game)

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2025 wk 8	vs GB	2.0	yes
2025 wk 9	vs IND	4.0	yes
2025 wk 10	at LAC	2.0	yes
2025 wk 12	at CHI	6.0	yes
2025 wk 13	vs BUF	2.0	yes
2025 wk 14	at BAL	6.0	yes
2025 wk 16	at DET	5.0	yes
2025 wk 18	vs BAL	8.0	yes
2026 wk 1	at CIN	1.0	no
2026 wk 3	vs MIN	2.0	yes

player lineBetting Pass

73Dak Prescott: over a posted line, rushing yards

5 of 7, 71% in this spot

7 of 21, 33% everywhere else

Over · QB · DALTB at DAL, Thu, Oct 8TB allows #5 to QBs, 1.15x league (20.7 vs 18.0 a game)

The 7 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 2	vs NO	12.0	yes
2025 wk 2	vs NYG	17.0	yes
2025 wk 7	vs WAS	7.0	no
2025 wk 9	vs ARI	34.0	yes
2025 wk 15	vs MIN	2.0	no
2025 wk 16	vs LAC	14.0	yes
2026 wk 2	vs WAS	26.0	yes

his history

68CeeDee Lamb has 8 of his last 10 games at home with over 80.5 receiving yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

14 of 32, 44% everywhere else

WR · CowboysTB at DAL, Thu, Oct 82024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sun, Dec 22 24	vs TB (+4.5)	105	yes
Sun, Sep 14 25	vs NYG (-4.5)	112	yes
Sun, Oct 19 25	vs WAS (-1.5)	110	yes
Mon, Nov 3 25	vs ARI (-3.5)	85	yes
Sun, Nov 23 25	vs PHI (+3)	75	no
Thu, Nov 27 25	vs KC (+3.5)	112	yes
Sun, Dec 14 25	vs MIN (-5.5)	111	yes
Sun, Dec 21 25	vs LAC (-1.5)	51	no
Sun, Sep 20 26	vs WAS (-3.5)	153	yes
Sun, Sep 27 26	vs BAL (+3)	112	yes

+ 3 more on this game

his history

62Emeka Egbuka has 5 of his last 6 games on the road as an underdog with over 3.5 catches.

5 of 6, 83% in this spot

7 of 15, 47% everywhere else

WR · BuccaneersTB at DAL, Thu, Oct 82025-2026

The 6 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Mon, Sep 15 25	at HOU (+2.5)	4	yes
Sun, Oct 5 25	at SEA (+3.5)	7	yes
Mon, Oct 20 25	at DET (+6)	4	yes
Sun, Nov 16 25	at BUF (+6)	5	yes
Sun, Nov 23 25	at LA (+7)	3	no
Sun, Sep 13 26	at CIN (+3.5)	5	yes

player lineBetting Pass

58Tyler Goodson: under a posted line, rushing yards

12 of 17, 71% in this spot

12 of 17, 71% everywhere else

Under · RB · DALTB at DAL, Thu, Oct 8TB allows #29 to RBs, 0.8x league (75.2 vs 94.4 a game)

player lineBetting Pass

52Bucky Irving: over a posted line, catches

8 of 13, 62% in this spot

8 of 17, 47% everywhere else

Over · RB · TBTB at DAL, Thu, Oct 8DAL allows #9 to RBs, 1.13x league (4.8 vs 4.3 a game)

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 9	at KC	3.0	yes
2024 wk 12	at NYG	6.0	yes
2024 wk 13	at CAR	3.0	yes
2024 wk 15	at LAC	2.0	no
2024 wk 16	at DAL	3.0	yes
2025 wk 1	at ATL	4.0	yes
2025 wk 2	at HOU	6.0	yes
2025 wk 16	at CAR	0.0	no
2025 wk 17	at MIA	5.0	yes
2026 wk 1	at CIN	7.0	yes

Sunday early 9 games · 61 fire

Eagles at JaguarsSun 9:30 AM ET

5Sheet →

league history

62Favorites have covered 23 of 35 overseas

23 of 35, 66% in this spot

1259 of 2594, 48% everywhere else

inside the luck line · JAX herePHI at JAX2016-2026

player lineBetting Pass

57Brenton Strange: under a posted line, catches

19 of 29, 66% in this spot

19 of 29, 66% everywhere else

Under · TE · JAXPHI at JAX, Sun, Oct 11PHI allows #31 to TEs, 0.74x league (3.9 vs 5.3 a game)

player lineBetting Pass

56Will Shipley: under a posted line, rushing yards

12 of 12, 100% in this spot

7 of 7, 100% everywhere else

Under · RB · PHIPHI at JAX, Sun, Oct 11JAX allows #32 to RBs, 0.7x league (66.5 vs 94.4 a game)

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 10	at DAL	34.0	no
2024 wk 13	at BAL	4.0	no
2025 wk 4	at TB	0.0	no
2025 wk 7	at MIN	0.0	no
2025 wk 10	at GB	17.0	no
2025 wk 14	at LAC	0.0	no
2025 wk 16	at WAS	0.0	no
2025 wk 17	at BUF	2.0	no
2026 wk 2	at TEN	24.0	no
2026 wk 3	at CHI	0.0	no

team history

54The Jaguars have covered 11 of 15 as a home favorite

11 of 15, 73% in this spot

23 of 40, 57% everywhere else

JAXPHI at JAX2023-2026, new coach in 2025

The 15 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 3	at NE	yes
2026 wk 1	at CLE	yes
2025 wk 18	at TEN	yes
2025 wk 15	at NYJ	yes
2025 wk 3	at HOU	yes
2025 wk 1	at CAR	yes
2024 wk 7	at NE	yes
2024 wk 5	at IND	no
2024 wk 2	at CLE	no
2023 wk 17	at CAR	yes
2023 wk 13	at CIN	no
2023 wk 11	at TEN	yes
2023 wk 6	at IND	yes
2023 wk 4	at ATL	yes
2023 wk 3	at HOU	no

+ 1 more on this game

his history

52Jalen Hurts has 8 of his last 10 games outdoors with over 0.5 passing touchdowns.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

7 of 12, 58% everywhere else

QB · EaglesPHI at JAX, Sun, Oct 112025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Mon, Nov 10 25	at GB (+1.5)	1	yes
Sun, Nov 16 25	vs DET (-2.5)	0	no
Fri, Nov 28 25	vs CHI (-7)	2	yes
Sun, Dec 14 25	vs LV (-12.5)	3	yes
Sat, Dec 20 25	at WAS (-7)	2	yes
Sun, Dec 28 25	at BUF (+3)	1	yes
Sun, Sep 13 26	vs WAS (-6)	3	yes
Sun, Sep 20 26	at TEN (-7)	2	yes
Mon, Sep 28 26	at CHI (-3.5)	0	no
Sun, Oct 4 26	vs LA (+3.5)	2	yes

Bears at PackersSun 1:00 PM ET

4Sheet →

player lineBetting Pass

72D'Andre Swift: over a posted line, rushing yards

5 of 6, 83% in this spot

12 of 30, 40% everywhere else

Over · RB · CHICHI at GB, Sun, Oct 11GB allows #10 to RBs, 1.11x league (104.3 vs 94.4 a game)

The 6 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 13	at DET	39.0	no
2024 wk 15	at MIN	79.0	yes
2024 wk 18	at GB	65.0	yes
2025 wk 2	at DET	63.0	yes
2025 wk 11	at MIN	90.0	yes
2025 wk 14	at GB	63.0	yes

league history

63Underdogs have covered 26 of 40 in week 5 in a division game

26 of 40, 65% in this spot

1321 of 2589, 51% everywhere else

inside the luck line · GB hereCHI at GB2016-2026

player lineBetting Pass

60D'Andre Swift: under a posted line, receiving yards

8 of 12, 67% in this spot

10 of 24, 42% everywhere else

Under · RB · CHICHI at GB, Sun, Oct 11GB allows #24 to RBs, 0.87x league (27.4 vs 31.5 a game)

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 5	vs CAR	47.0	yes
2024 wk 10	vs NE	6.0	no
2025 wk 7	vs NO	14.0	no
2025 wk 10	vs NYG	18.0	yes
2025 wk 12	vs PIT	14.0	no
2025 wk 15	vs CLE	-2.0	no
2025 wk 16	vs GB	12.0	no
2025 wk 18	vs DET	8.0	no
2026 wk 1	at CAR	10.0	no
2026 wk 2	vs MIN	54.0	yes

player lineBetting Pass

56Colston Loveland: under a posted line, receiving yards

4 of 5, 80% in this spot

7 of 14, 50% everywhere else

Under · TE · CHICHI at GB, Sun, Oct 11GB allows #29 to TEs, 0.8x league (42.8 vs 53.5 a game)

The 5 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2025 wk 1	vs MIN	12.0	no
2025 wk 14	at GB	29.0	no
2025 wk 16	vs GB	30.0	no
2025 wk 18	vs DET	91.0	yes
2026 wk 2	vs MIN	3.0	no

Bengals at DolphinsSun 1:00 PM ET

4Sheet →

player lineBetting Pass

76Malik Washington: under a posted line, catches

29 of 32, 91% in this spot

29 of 32, 91% everywhere else

Under · WR · MIACIN at MIA, Sun, Oct 11CIN allows #32 to WRs, 0.81x league (9.0 vs 11.1 a game)

team history

74The Bengals have covered 9 of 10 as a road favorite after a loss

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

49 of 91, 54% everywhere else

CINCIN at MIA2020-2026, Taylor and Burrow

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2025 wk 16	at MIA	yes
2024 wk 14	at DAL	yes
2024 wk 6	at NYG	yes
2024 wk 4	at CAR	yes
2023 wk 5	at ARI	yes
2022 wk 6	at NO	yes
2022 wk 3	at NYJ	yes
2022 wk 2	at DAL	no
2021 wk 11	at LV	yes
2021 wk 6	at DET	yes

league history

66Road teams have covered 46 of 71 in week 5 after the home team lost

46 of 71, 65% in this spot

1294 of 2562, 50% everywhere else

inside the luck line · CIN hereCIN at MIA2016-2026

his history

54Tee Higgins has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

9 of 16, 56% everywhere else

WR · BengalsCIN at MIA, Sun, Oct 112024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Jan 4 24	at PIT (-2.5)	53	yes
Sun, Sep 7 25	at CLE (-5.5)	33	no
Sun, Sep 14 25	vs JAX (-3.5)	56	yes
Sun, Oct 26 25	vs NYJ (-5.5)	44	no
Sun, Dec 21 25	at MIA (-3.5)	53	yes
Sun, Dec 28 25	vs ARI (-7)	59	yes
Sun, Jan 4 25	vs CLE (-9.5)	67	yes
Sun, Sep 13 26	vs TB (-3.5)	59	yes
Sun, Sep 27 26	at PIT (-3.5)	90	yes
Sun, Oct 4 26	vs JAX (-2.5)	157	yes

Browns at JetsSun 1:00 PM ET

6Sheet →

player lineBetting Pass

76Garrett Wilson: under a posted line, catches

11 of 12, 92% in this spot

8 of 15, 53% everywhere else

Under · WR · NYJCLE at NYJ, Sun, Oct 11CLE allows #31 to WRs, 0.83x league (9.2 vs 11.1 a game)

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 4	vs DEN	5.0	no
2024 wk 7	at PIT	5.0	no
2024 wk 8	at NE	5.0	no
2024 wk 9	vs HOU	9.0	yes
2024 wk 10	at ARI	5.0	no
2024 wk 11	vs IND	4.0	no
2024 wk 13	vs SEA	5.0	no
2024 wk 15	at JAX	3.0	no
2024 wk 18	vs MIA	4.0	no
2025 wk 5	vs DAL	6.0	no

his history

72Harold Fannin Jr. has 6 of his last 7 games on the road outdoors with over 36.5 receiving yards.

6 of 7, 86% in this spot

5 of 13, 38% everywhere else

TE · BrownsCLE at NYJ, Sun, Oct 112025-2026

The 7 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sun, Sep 14 25	at BAL (+12.5)	48	yes
Sun, Oct 12 25	at PIT (+5.5)	81	yes
Sun, Oct 26 25	at NE (+7)	62	yes
Sun, Nov 9 25	at NYJ (-1.5)	44	yes
Sun, Dec 14 25	at CHI (+7.5)	48	yes
Sun, Sep 13 26	at JAX (+8.5)	21	no
Sun, Sep 20 26	at TB (+8.5)	54	yes

league history

66Road teams have covered 46 of 71 in week 5 after the home team lost

46 of 71, 65% in this spot

1294 of 2562, 50% everywhere else

inside the luck line · CLE hereCLE at NYJ2016-2026

team history

65The Browns have gone over 11 of 15 on the road with a total of 41 or under

11 of 15, 73% in this spot

17 of 39, 44% everywhere else

CLECLE at NYJ2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2026

The 15 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 1	at JAX	yes
2025 wk 15	at CHI	no
2025 wk 12	at LV	no
2025 wk 10	at NYJ	yes
2025 wk 8	at NE	yes
2025 wk 6	at PIT	no
2024 wk 4	at LV	no
2023 wk 18	at CIN	yes
2023 wk 16	at HOU	yes
2023 wk 13	at LA	yes
2023 wk 12	at DEN	yes
2023 wk 10	at BAL	yes
2023 wk 8	at SEA	yes
2023 wk 7	at IND	yes
2023 wk 2	at PIT	yes

+ 2 more on this game

league history

63Unders have hit 15 of 22 in week 5 in the rain

15 of 22, 68% in this spot

1353 of 2660, 51% everywhere else

inside the luck lineCLE at NYJ2016-2026

his history

50Geno Smith has 8 of his last 10 games at home outdoors with over 206.5 passing yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

26 of 42, 62% everywhere else

QB · JetsCLE at NYJ, Sun, Oct 112024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sun, Sep 8 24	vs DEN (-6.5)	171	no
Sun, Sep 22 24	vs MIA (-4)	289	yes
Sun, Oct 6 24	vs NYG (-7)	284	yes
Thu, Oct 10 24	vs SF (+3.5)	312	yes
Sun, Oct 27 24	vs BUF (+3)	212	yes
Sun, Nov 3 24	vs LA (+1.5)	363	yes
Sun, Nov 24 24	vs ARI (+1)	254	yes
Sun, Dec 15 24	vs GB (+3)	149	no
Sun, Dec 22 24	vs MIN (+2.5)	314	yes
Sun, Sep 20 26	vs GB (+3.5)	247	yes

Texans at TitansSun 1:00 PM ET

12Sheet →

player line

80Nico Collins over 81.5 receiving yards (-115): 8 of 10 in division games

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

4 of 18, 22% everywhere else

Over · WR · HOUHOU at TEN, Sun, Oct 11TEN allows #5 to WRs, 1.17x league (164.3 vs 140.5 a game)

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 1	at IND	117.0	yes
2024 wk 4	vs JAX	151.0	yes
2024 wk 12	vs TEN	92.0	yes
2024 wk 13	at JAX	119.0	yes
2024 wk 18	at TEN	38.0	no
2025 wk 3	at JAX	104.0	yes
2025 wk 4	vs TEN	79.0	no
2025 wk 10	vs JAX	136.0	yes
2025 wk 11	at TEN	92.0	yes
2025 wk 13	at IND	98.0	yes

team history

77The Titans have gone over 12 of 15 as an underdog of 7 or more

12 of 15, 80% in this spot

16 of 40, 40% everywhere else

TENHOU at TEN2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025

The 15 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 4	at BAL	no
2026 wk 2	at PHI	yes
2025 wk 18	at JAX	yes
2025 wk 15	at SF	yes
2025 wk 12	at SEA	yes
2025 wk 9	at LAC	yes
2025 wk 8	at IND	yes
2025 wk 5	at ARI	yes
2025 wk 4	at HOU	no
2025 wk 1	at DEN	no
2024 wk 12	at HOU	yes
2024 wk 10	at LAC	yes
2024 wk 8	at DET	yes
2024 wk 7	at BUF	yes
2023 wk 14	at MIA	yes

his history

72Xavier Hutchinson has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with over 16.5 receiving yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

7 of 21, 33% everywhere else

WR · TexansHOU at TEN, Sun, Oct 112025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sun, Oct 5 25	at BAL (-2.5)	18	yes
Sun, Oct 26 25	vs SF (-2.5)	69	yes
Sun, Nov 2 25	vs DEN (-1.5)	30	yes
Sun, Nov 16 25	at TEN (-5.5)	42	yes
Sun, Dec 14 25	vs ARI (-10.5)	16	no
Sun, Dec 21 25	vs LV (-14.5)	4	no
Sun, Jan 4 25	vs IND (-9.5)	84	yes
Sun, Sep 20 26	vs CIN (-3)	37	yes
Sun, Sep 27 26	at IND (-1.5)	51	yes
Sun, Oct 4 26	vs DAL (-3)	46	yes

player lineBetting Pass

72Nico Collins: over a posted line, catches

4 of 6, 67% in this spot

6 of 22, 27% everywhere else

Over · WR · HOUHOU at TEN, Sun, Oct 11TEN allows #5 to WRs, 1.1x league (12.2 vs 11.1 a game)

The 6 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 1	at IND	6.0	yes
2024 wk 13	at JAX	8.0	yes
2024 wk 18	at TEN	5.0	no
2025 wk 3	at JAX	8.0	yes
2025 wk 11	at TEN	9.0	yes
2025 wk 13	at IND	5.0	no

+ 8 more on this game

team history

70The Titans have gone over 11 of 15 as an underdog when our model likes them

11 of 15, 73% in this spot

17 of 40, 42% everywhere else

TENHOU at TEN2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025

The 15 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 2	at PHI	yes
2025 wk 12	at SEA	yes
2025 wk 8	at IND	yes
2025 wk 7	at NE	yes
2025 wk 4	at HOU	no
2025 wk 2	at LA	yes
2024 wk 15	at CIN	yes
2024 wk 10	at LAC	yes
2024 wk 7	at BUF	yes
2024 wk 2	at NYJ	no
2023 wk 18	at JAX	yes
2023 wk 9	at PIT	no
2023 wk 8	at ATL	yes
2023 wk 6	at BAL	no
2023 wk 2	at LAC	yes

league history

66Road teams have covered 46 of 71 in week 5 after the home team lost

46 of 71, 65% in this spot

1294 of 2562, 50% everywhere else

inside the luck line · HOU hereHOU at TEN2016-2026

player lineBetting Pass

66Woody Marks: under a posted line, catches

7 of 9, 78% in this spot

5 of 10, 50% everywhere else

Under · RB · HOUHOU at TEN, Sun, Oct 11TEN allows #30 to RBs, 0.78x league (3.4 vs 4.3 a game)

The 9 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2025 wk 1	at LA	0.0	no
2025 wk 3	at JAX	1.0	no
2025 wk 5	at BAL	0.0	no
2025 wk 7	at SEA	3.0	yes
2025 wk 11	at TEN	1.0	no
2025 wk 13	at IND	1.0	no
2025 wk 14	at KC	2.0	yes
2025 wk 17	at LAC	1.0	no
2026 wk 3	at IND	1.0	no

player lineBetting Pass

65Woody Marks: under a posted line, receiving yards

7 of 9, 78% in this spot

5 of 10, 50% everywhere else

Under · RB · HOUHOU at TEN, Sun, Oct 11TEN allows #26 to RBs, 0.85x league (26.9 vs 31.5 a game)

The 9 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2025 wk 1	at LA	0.0	no
2025 wk 3	at JAX	9.0	yes
2025 wk 5	at BAL	0.0	no
2025 wk 7	at SEA	20.0	yes
2025 wk 11	at TEN	7.0	no
2025 wk 13	at IND	3.0	no
2025 wk 14	at KC	8.0	no
2025 wk 17	at LAC	4.0	no
2026 wk 3	at IND	6.0	no

league history

63Underdogs have covered 26 of 40 in week 5 in a division game

26 of 40, 65% in this spot

1321 of 2589, 51% everywhere else

inside the luck line · TEN hereHOU at TEN2016-2026

league history

63Unders have hit 15 of 22 in week 5 in the rain

15 of 22, 68% in this spot

1353 of 2660, 51% everywhere else

inside the luck lineHOU at TEN2016-2026

league history

62Underdogs of 7 or more have covered 15 of 21 in October with a total of 41 or under

15 of 21, 71% in this spot

367 of 728, 50% everywhere else

inside the luck line · TEN hereHOU at TEN2016-2026

team history

60The Texans have gone under 10 of 13 as a favorite after a loss

10 of 13, 77% in this spot

24 of 41, 58% everywhere else

HOUHOU at TEN2023-2026, Ryans and Stroud

The 13 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 4	at DAL	no
2026 wk 3	at IND	yes
2026 wk 2	at CIN	yes
2025 wk 8	at SF	yes
2025 wk 4	at TEN	yes
2025 wk 2	at TB	yes
2024 wk 13	at JAX	yes
2024 wk 11	at DAL	no
2024 wk 8	at IND	yes
2024 wk 4	at JAX	yes
2023 wk 17	at TEN	yes
2023 wk 13	at DEN	yes
2023 wk 9	at TB	no

Colts at SteelersSun 1:00 PM ET

8Sheet →

player lineBetting Pass

78Keenan Allen: over a posted line, receiving yards

27 of 35, 77% in this spot

27 of 35, 77% everywhere else

Over · WR · INDIND at PIT, Sun, Oct 11PIT allows #7 to WRs, 1.13x league (158.9 vs 140.5 a game)

player lineBetting Pass

71Keenan Allen: over a posted line, catches

25 of 35, 71% in this spot

25 of 35, 71% everywhere else

Over · WR · INDIND at PIT, Sun, Oct 11PIT allows #4 to WRs, 1.1x league (12.2 vs 11.1 a game)

team history

71The Colts have covered 11 of 15 on the road when our model likes them

11 of 15, 73% in this spot

19 of 40, 48% everywhere else

INDIND at PIT2023-2026, new QB in 2025

The 15 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 2	at KC	yes
2025 wk 18	at HOU	yes
2025 wk 15	at SEA	yes
2025 wk 12	at KC	yes
2025 wk 7	at LAC	yes
2025 wk 4	at LA	no
2024 wk 11	at NYJ	yes
2024 wk 8	at HOU	yes
2024 wk 6	at TEN	yes
2024 wk 5	at JAX	yes
2023 wk 16	at ATL	no
2023 wk 14	at CIN	no
2023 wk 9	at CAR	yes
2023 wk 6	at JAX	no
2023 wk 3	at BAL	yes

league history

66Road teams have covered 46 of 71 in week 5 after the home team lost

46 of 71, 65% in this spot

1294 of 2562, 50% everywhere else

inside the luck line · IND hereIND at PIT2016-2026

+ 4 more on this game

team history

63The Steelers have covered 7 of 8 outdoors with extra rest

7 of 8, 88% in this spot

25 of 46, 54% everywhere else

PITIND at PIT2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025

The 8 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2025 wk 8	at GB	no
2025 wk 6	at CLE	yes
2024 wk 18	at CIN	yes
2024 wk 14	at CLE	yes
2024 wk 10	at WAS	yes
2024 wk 7	at NYJ	yes
2023 wk 17	at SEA	yes
2023 wk 10	at GB	yes

league history

63Unders have hit 15 of 22 in week 5 in the rain

15 of 22, 68% in this spot

1353 of 2660, 51% everywhere else

inside the luck lineIND at PIT2016-2026

player lineBetting Pass

62Pat Freiermuth: over a posted line, receiving yards

10 of 15, 67% in this spot

9 of 20, 45% everywhere else

Over · TE · PITIND at PIT, Sun, Oct 11IND allows #2 to TEs, 1.3x league (69.5 vs 53.5 a game)

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 14	vs CLE	48.0	yes
2025 wk 1	at NYJ	28.0	yes
2025 wk 2	vs SEA	31.0	yes
2025 wk 3	at NE	6.0	no
2025 wk 6	vs CLE	11.0	no
2025 wk 7	at CIN	111.0	yes
2025 wk 11	vs CIN	19.0	no
2025 wk 15	vs MIA	45.0	yes
2025 wk 17	at CLE	63.0	yes
2026 wk 1	vs ATL	46.0	yes

team history

60The Colts have covered 7 of 10 as a road underdog outdoors

7 of 10, 70% in this spot

23 of 45, 51% everywhere else

INDIND at PIT2023-2026, new QB in 2025

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 2	at KC	yes
2025 wk 15	at SEA	yes
2025 wk 12	at KC	yes
2024 wk 15	at DEN	no
2024 wk 11	at NYJ	yes
2024 wk 6	at TEN	yes
2024 wk 5	at JAX	yes
2023 wk 14	at CIN	no
2023 wk 6	at JAX	no
2023 wk 3	at BAL	yes

Raiders at PatriotsSun 1:00 PM ET

2Sheet →

his history

72TreVeyon Henderson has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

2 of 8, 25% everywhere else

RB · PatriotsLV at NE, Sun, Oct 112025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sun, Oct 12 25	at NO (-3.5)	27	no
Sun, Oct 19 25	at TEN (-6.5)	5	no
Sun, Oct 26 25	vs CLE (-7)	75	yes
Sun, Nov 2 25	vs ATL (-5.5)	55	yes
Thu, Nov 13 25	vs NYJ (-12.5)	62	yes
Sun, Nov 23 25	at CIN (-7.5)	66	yes
Mon, Dec 1 25	vs NYG (-7)	67	yes
Sun, Dec 28 25	at NYJ (-12.5)	82	yes
Sun, Jan 4 25	vs MIA (-14)	53	yes
Sun, Sep 20 26	vs PIT (-4.5)	76	yes

player lineBetting Pass

53Ashton Jeanty: under a posted line, rushing yards

6 of 10, 60% in this spot

5 of 10, 50% everywhere else

Under · RB · LVLV at NE, Sun, Oct 11NE allows #28 to RBs, 0.84x league (79.4 vs 94.4 a game)

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2025 wk 1	at NE	38.0	no
2025 wk 3	at WAS	63.0	yes
2025 wk 5	at IND	67.0	yes
2025 wk 7	at KC	21.0	no
2025 wk 10	at DEN	60.0	yes
2025 wk 13	at LAC	31.0	no
2025 wk 15	at PHI	35.0	no
2025 wk 16	at HOU	128.0	yes
2026 wk 2	at LAC	48.0	no
2026 wk 3	at NO	56.0	no

Vikings at SaintsSun 1:00 PM ET

5Sheet →

player lineBetting Pass

74Aaron Jones: under a posted line, catches

16 of 18, 89% in this spot

8 of 14, 57% everywhere else

Under · RB · MINMIN at NO, Sun, Oct 11NO allows #26 to RBs, 0.83x league (3.5 vs 4.3 a game)

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 13	vs ARI	3.0	no
2024 wk 14	vs ATL	2.0	no
2024 wk 15	vs CHI	2.0	no
2024 wk 16	at SEA	3.0	no
2025 wk 1	at CHI	3.0	no
2025 wk 2	vs ATL	0.0	no
2025 wk 11	vs CHI	3.0	no
2025 wk 16	at NYG	2.0	no
2026 wk 1	vs GB	0.0	no
2026 wk 3	at TB	5.0	yes

league history

66Road teams have covered 46 of 71 in week 5 after the home team lost

46 of 71, 65% in this spot

1294 of 2562, 50% everywhere else

inside the luck line · MIN hereMIN at NO2016-2026

league history

64Underdogs of under 7 have covered 14 of 20 in week 5 after the home team lost by 14 or more

14 of 20, 70% in this spot

951 of 1860, 51% everywhere else

inside the luck line · NO hereMIN at NO2016-2026

team history

62The Vikings have covered 10 of 13 as a road favorite

10 of 13, 77% in this spot

20 of 38, 53% everywhere else

MINMIN at NO2023-2026, new QB in 2026

The 13 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 3	at TB	yes
2025 wk 16	at NYG	yes
2025 wk 5	at CLE	yes
2025 wk 4	at PIT	no
2025 wk 1	at CHI	yes
2024 wk 16	at SEA	yes
2024 wk 11	at TEN	yes
2024 wk 10	at JAX	no
2024 wk 8	at LA	no
2024 wk 1	at NYG	yes
2023 wk 8	at GB	yes
2023 wk 6	at CHI	yes
2023 wk 4	at CAR	yes

+ 1 more on this game

player lineBetting Pass

54Juwan Johnson: under a posted line, catches

22 of 35, 63% in this spot

22 of 35, 63% everywhere else

Under · TE · NOMIN at NO, Sun, Oct 11MIN allows #30 to TEs, 0.8x league (4.2 vs 5.3 a game)

Giants at CommandersSun 1:00 PM ET

15Sheet →

player lineBetting Pass

78Darnell Mooney: over a posted line, receiving yards

11 of 11, 100% in this spot

16 of 23, 70% everywhere else

Over · WR · NYGNYG at WAS, Sun, Oct 11WAS allows #3 to WRs, 1.19x league (166.9 vs 140.5 a game)

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 5	vs TB	105.0	yes
2024 wk 6	at CAR	38.0	yes
2024 wk 8	at TB	86.0	yes
2024 wk 10	at NO	96.0	yes
2025 wk 3	at CAR	44.0	yes
2025 wk 11	vs CAR	34.0	yes
2025 wk 12	at NO	74.0	yes
2025 wk 15	at TB	35.0	yes
2025 wk 18	vs NO	20.0	yes
2026 wk 1	vs DAL	27.0	yes

player lineBetting Pass

77Darnell Mooney: over a posted line, catches

11 of 11, 100% in this spot

16 of 23, 70% everywhere else

Over · WR · NYGNYG at WAS, Sun, Oct 11WAS allows #3 to WRs, 1.14x league (12.6 vs 11.1 a game)

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 5	vs TB	9.0	yes
2024 wk 6	at CAR	3.0	yes
2024 wk 8	at TB	4.0	yes
2024 wk 10	at NO	5.0	yes
2025 wk 3	at CAR	4.0	yes
2025 wk 11	vs CAR	3.0	yes
2025 wk 12	at NO	3.0	yes
2025 wk 15	at TB	3.0	yes
2025 wk 18	vs NO	3.0	yes
2026 wk 1	vs DAL	2.0	yes

team history

76The Giants have covered 6 of 8 in a division game when our model likes them

6 of 8, 75% in this spot

19 of 46, 41% everywhere else

NYGNYG at WAS2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2026

The 8 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 1	at DAL	yes
2025 wk 6	at PHI	yes
2025 wk 2	at DAL	yes
2024 wk 4	at DAL	yes
2023 wk 11	at WAS	yes
2023 wk 10	at DAL	no
2023 wk 7	at WAS	yes
2023 wk 1	at DAL	no

player lineBetting Pass

75Jayden Daniels: over a posted line, rushing yards

11 of 12, 92% in this spot

8 of 14, 57% everywhere else

Over · QB · WASNYG at WAS, Sun, Oct 11NYG allows #4 to QBs, 1.2x league (21.6 vs 18.0 a game)

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 7	vs CAR	50.0	yes
2024 wk 8	vs CHI	52.0	yes
2024 wk 10	vs PIT	5.0	no
2024 wk 12	vs DAL	74.0	yes
2024 wk 13	vs TEN	34.0	yes
2024 wk 16	vs PHI	81.0	yes
2024 wk 17	vs ATL	127.0	yes
2025 wk 1	vs NYG	68.0	yes
2025 wk 6	vs CHI	52.0	yes
2025 wk 9	vs SEA	51.0	yes

+ 11 more on this game

his history

72Jacory Croskey-Merritt has 5 of his last 6 games in division games outdoors with a rushing touchdown.

5 of 6, 83% in this spot

2 of 15, 13% everywhere else

RB · CommandersNYG at WAS, Sun, Oct 112025-2026

The 6 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sun, Sep 7 25	vs NYG (-6)	1	yes
Sun, Dec 14 25	at NYG (+2.5)	1	yes
Sat, Dec 20 25	vs PHI (+7)	1	yes
Thu, Dec 25 25	vs DAL (+8.5)	2	yes
Sun, Jan 4 25	at PHI (+3)	0	no
Sun, Sep 13 26	at PHI (+6)	1	yes

team history

72The Commanders have gone over 11 of 13 in a division game after a loss

11 of 13, 85% in this spot

23 of 42, 55% everywhere else

WASNYG at WAS2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2024

The 13 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 2	at DAL	yes
2025 wk 18	at PHI	yes
2025 wk 17	at DAL	yes
2025 wk 15	at NYG	yes
2025 wk 7	at DAL	yes
2024 wk 12	at DAL	yes
2024 wk 11	at PHI	no
2024 wk 2	at NYG	no
2023 wk 18	at DAL	yes
2023 wk 12	at DAL	yes
2023 wk 11	at NYG	yes
2023 wk 8	at PHI	yes
2023 wk 4	at PHI	yes

team history

71The Commanders have gone over 13 of 16 at home after a loss

13 of 16, 81% in this spot

21 of 39, 54% everywhere else

WASNYG at WAS2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2024

The 16 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 3	at SEA	yes
2025 wk 17	at DAL	yes
2025 wk 13	at DEN	yes
2025 wk 10	at DET	yes
2025 wk 9	at SEA	yes
2025 wk 3	at LV	yes
2024 wk 13	at TEN	yes
2024 wk 12	at DAL	yes
2024 wk 7	at CAR	no
2024 wk 2	at NYG	no
2023 wk 18	at DAL	yes
2023 wk 17	at SF	no
2023 wk 13	at MIA	yes
2023 wk 11	at NYG	yes
2023 wk 8	at PHI	yes
2023 wk 5	at CHI	yes

league history

66Road teams have covered 46 of 71 in week 5 after the home team lost

46 of 71, 65% in this spot

1294 of 2562, 50% everywhere else

inside the luck line · NYG hereNYG at WAS2016-2026

player lineBetting Pass

66Jameis Winston: over a posted line, passing yards

6 of 10, 60% in this spot

2 of 6, 33% everywhere else

Over · QB · NYGNYG at WAS, Sun, Oct 11WAS allows #2 to QBs, 1.16x league (261.6 vs 225.7 a game)

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 2	at JAX	0.0	no
2024 wk 5	at WAS	16.0	no
2024 wk 7	vs CIN	67.0	no
2024 wk 8	vs BAL	334.0	yes
2024 wk 9	vs LAC	235.0	yes
2024 wk 12	vs PIT	219.0	yes
2024 wk 13	at DEN	497.0	yes
2024 wk 14	at PIT	212.0	yes
2024 wk 15	vs KC	146.0	no
2025 wk 11	vs GB	201.0	yes

team history

64The Commanders have gone over 15 of 20 in a division game

15 of 20, 75% in this spot

19 of 35, 54% everywhere else

WASNYG at WAS2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2024

The 20 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 2	at DAL	yes
2026 wk 1	at PHI	yes
2025 wk 18	at PHI	yes
2025 wk 17	at DAL	yes
2025 wk 16	at PHI	yes
2025 wk 15	at NYG	yes
2025 wk 7	at DAL	yes
2025 wk 1	at NYG	no
2024 wk 18	at DAL	no
2024 wk 16	at PHI	yes
2024 wk 12	at DAL	yes
2024 wk 11	at PHI	no
2024 wk 9	at NYG	yes
2024 wk 2	at NYG	no
2023 wk 18	at DAL	yes
2023 wk 12	at DAL	yes
2023 wk 11	at NYG	yes
2023 wk 8	at PHI	yes
2023 wk 7	at NYG	no
2023 wk 4	at PHI	yes

league history

64Underdogs of under 7 have covered 14 of 20 in week 5 after the home team lost by 14 or more

14 of 20, 70% in this spot

951 of 1860, 51% everywhere else

inside the luck line · NYG hereNYG at WAS2016-2026

league history

63Underdogs have covered 26 of 40 in week 5 in a division game

26 of 40, 65% in this spot

1321 of 2589, 51% everywhere else

inside the luck line · NYG hereNYG at WAS2016-2026

league history

63Unders have hit 15 of 22 in week 5 in the rain

15 of 22, 68% in this spot

1353 of 2660, 51% everywhere else

inside the luck lineNYG at WAS2016-2026

player lineBetting Pass

60Jameis Winston: over a posted line, rushing yards

5 of 7, 71% in this spot

4 of 9, 44% everywhere else

Over · QB · NYGNYG at WAS, Sun, Oct 11WAS allows #7 to QBs, 1.15x league (20.6 vs 18.0 a game)

The 7 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 2	at JAX	4.0	yes
2024 wk 5	at WAS	-3.0	no
2024 wk 11	at NO	8.0	yes
2024 wk 13	at DEN	11.0	yes
2024 wk 14	at PIT	28.0	yes
2025 wk 12	at DET	13.0	yes
2026 wk 2	at LA	1.0	no

player lineBetting Pass

57Malik Nabers: over a posted line, catches

6 of 6, 100% in this spot

12 of 16, 75% everywhere else

Over · WR · NYGNYG at WAS, Sun, Oct 11WAS allows #3 to WRs, 1.14x league (12.6 vs 11.1 a game)

The 6 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 2	at WAS	10.0	yes
2024 wk 3	at CLE	8.0	yes
2024 wk 8	at PIT	7.0	yes
2024 wk 10	at CAR	6.0	yes
2024 wk 18	at PHI	5.0	yes
2025 wk 1	at WAS	5.0	yes

Sunday late 4 games · 31 fire

Broncos at ChargersSun 4:05 PM ET

10Sheet →

player lineBetting Pass

74Bo Nix: under a posted line, passing yards

13 of 18, 72% in this spot

7 of 19, 37% everywhere else

Under · QB · DENDEN at LAC, Sun, Oct 11LAC allows #27 to QBs, 0.89x league (202.0 vs 225.7 a game)

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 17	at CIN	219.0	no
2025 wk 2	at IND	206.0	no
2025 wk 3	at LAC	153.0	no
2025 wk 5	at PHI	242.0	yes
2025 wk 6	at NYJ	174.0	no
2025 wk 9	at HOU	173.0	no
2025 wk 13	at WAS	321.0	yes
2025 wk 14	at LV	212.0	no
2025 wk 17	at KC	182.0	no
2026 wk 1	at KC	131.0	no

his history

72Bo Nix has 8 of his last 10 games on the road with over 14.5 rushing yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

7 of 19, 37% everywhere else

QB · BroncosDEN at LAC, Sun, Oct 112025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sun, Sep 14 25	at IND (-2.5)	20	yes
Sun, Sep 21 25	at LAC (+2.5)	33	yes
Sun, Oct 5 25	at PHI (+3.5)	22	yes
Sun, Oct 12 25	at NYJ (-7.5)	24	yes
Sun, Nov 2 25	at HOU (+1.5)	36	yes
Sun, Nov 30 25	at WAS (-6.5)	16	yes
Sun, Dec 7 25	at LV (-8.5)	15	yes
Thu, Dec 25 25	at KC (-13.5)	42	yes
Mon, Sep 14 26	at KC (+2.5)	2	no
Sun, Oct 4 26	at SF (+3)	10	no

team history

68The Chargers have covered 7 of 10 indoors when our model likes them

7 of 10, 70% in this spot

20 of 43, 46% everywhere else

LACDEN at LAC2023-2026, new coach in 2024

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2025 wk 17	at HOU	no
2025 wk 16	at DAL	yes
2025 wk 14	at PHI	yes
2025 wk 10	at PIT	yes
2025 wk 1	at KC	yes
2024 wk 11	at CIN	yes
2024 wk 4	at KC	yes
2023 wk 16	at BUF	yes
2023 wk 14	at DEN	no
2023 wk 6	at DAL	no

league history

66Road teams have covered 46 of 71 in week 5 after the home team lost

46 of 71, 65% in this spot

1294 of 2562, 50% everywhere else

inside the luck line · DEN hereDEN at LAC2016-2026

+ 6 more on this game

player lineBetting Pass

64Keaton Mitchell: under a posted line, rushing yards

13 of 17, 76% in this spot

13 of 17, 76% everywhere else

Under · RB · LACDEN at LAC, Sun, Oct 11DEN allows #27 to RBs, 0.85x league (80.5 vs 94.4 a game)

league history

63Underdogs have covered 26 of 40 in week 5 in a division game

26 of 40, 65% in this spot

1321 of 2589, 51% everywhere else

inside the luck line · LAC hereDEN at LAC2016-2026

team history

59The Broncos have covered 7 of 10 as a favorite after a loss

7 of 10, 70% in this spot

20 of 44, 46% everywhere else

DENDEN at LAC2023-2026, new QB in 2024

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 2	at JAX	yes
2025 wk 17	at KC	no
2025 wk 4	at CIN	yes
2024 wk 18	at KC	yes
2024 wk 11	at ATL	yes
2024 wk 7	at NO	yes
2023 wk 17	at LAC	yes
2023 wk 16	at NE	no
2023 wk 7	at GB	yes
2023 wk 2	at WAS	no

team history

58The Broncos have gone over 6 of 8 as a road favorite

6 of 8, 75% in this spot

21 of 47, 45% everywhere else

DENDEN at LAC2023-2026, new QB in 2024

The 8 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2025 wk 17	at KC	no
2025 wk 14	at LV	yes
2025 wk 13	at WAS	yes
2025 wk 6	at NYJ	no
2025 wk 2	at IND	yes
2024 wk 12	at LV	yes
2024 wk 7	at NO	yes
2023 wk 4	at CHI	yes

player lineBetting Pass

58RJ Harvey: under a posted line, receiving yards

6 of 7, 86% in this spot

7 of 12, 58% everywhere else

Under · RB · DENDEN at LAC, Sun, Oct 11LAC allows #28 to RBs, 0.82x league (25.6 vs 31.5 a game)

The 7 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2025 wk 3	at LAC	14.0	no
2025 wk 10	vs LV	9.0	no
2025 wk 11	vs KC	20.0	no
2025 wk 14	at LV	25.0	no
2025 wk 17	at KC	33.0	yes
2025 wk 18	vs LAC	5.0	no
2026 wk 1	at KC	23.0	no

team history

50The Chargers have gone under 6 of 8 as an underdog in a division game

6 of 8, 75% in this spot

28 of 47, 60% everywhere else

LACDEN at LAC2023-2026, new coach in 2024

The 8 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2025 wk 18	at DEN	yes
2025 wk 15	at KC	yes
2025 wk 1	at KC	no
2024 wk 14	at KC	yes
2024 wk 4	at KC	yes
2023 wk 17	at DEN	yes
2023 wk 15	at LV	no
2023 wk 7	at KC	yes

Lions at CardinalsSun 4:25 PM ET

8Sheet →

player lineBetting Pass

78Tyler Allgeier: under a posted line, receiving yards

31 of 37, 84% in this spot

31 of 37, 84% everywhere else

Under · RB · ARIDET at ARI, Sun, Oct 11DET allows #31 to RBs, 0.76x league (23.9 vs 31.5 a game)

team history

77The Cardinals have gone over 16 of 19 at home after a loss

16 of 19, 84% in this spot

14 of 35, 40% everywhere else

ARIDET at ARI2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025

The 19 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2025 wk 16	at ATL	no
2025 wk 14	at LA	yes
2025 wk 12	at JAX	yes
2025 wk 11	at SF	yes
2025 wk 7	at GB	yes
2025 wk 5	at TEN	yes
2025 wk 4	at SEA	no
2024 wk 18	at SF	yes
2024 wk 15	at NE	yes
2024 wk 14	at SEA	yes
2024 wk 7	at LAC	no
2024 wk 4	at WAS	yes
2024 wk 2	at LA	yes
2023 wk 12	at LA	yes
2023 wk 10	at ATL	yes
2023 wk 8	at BAL	yes
2023 wk 5	at CIN	yes
2023 wk 3	at DAL	yes
2023 wk 2	at NYG	yes

his history

71Jameson Williams has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with over 3.5 catches.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

5 of 12, 42% everywhere else

WR · LionsDET at ARI, Sun, Oct 112025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sun, Nov 2 25	vs MIN (-9.5)	4	yes
Sun, Nov 9 25	at WAS (-8.5)	6	yes
Sun, Nov 23 25	vs NYG (-14)	0	no
Thu, Nov 27 25	vs GB (-2.5)	7	yes
Thu, Dec 4 25	vs DAL (-3.5)	7	yes
Sun, Dec 21 25	vs PIT (-7.5)	5	yes
Thu, Dec 25 25	at MIN (-7)	2	no
Sun, Sep 13 26	vs NO (-7)	4	yes
Sun, Sep 27 26	vs NYJ (-7)	4	yes
Sun, Oct 4 26	at CAR (-4.5)	6	yes

league history

66Road teams have covered 46 of 71 in week 5 after the home team lost

46 of 71, 65% in this spot

1294 of 2562, 50% everywhere else

inside the luck line · DET hereDET at ARI2016-2026

+ 4 more on this game

team history

66The Lions have gone over 19 of 26 as a favorite with a total of 48 or higher

19 of 26, 73% in this spot

31 of 61, 51% everywhere else

DETDET at ARI2021-2026, Campbell and Goff

The 26 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 4	at CAR	yes
2026 wk 3	at NYJ	yes
2026 wk 1	at NO	yes
2025 wk 16	at PIT	yes
2025 wk 14	at DAL	yes
2025 wk 13	at GB	yes
2025 wk 12	at NYG	yes
2025 wk 10	at WAS	yes
2025 wk 7	at TB	no
2025 wk 5	at CIN	yes
2024 wk 18	at MIN	no
2024 wk 17	at SF	yes
2024 wk 15	at BUF	yes
2024 wk 14	at GB	yes
2024 wk 12	at IND	no
2024 wk 6	at DAL	yes
2024 wk 3	at ARI	no
2024 wk 2	at TB	no
2024 wk 1	at LA	no
2023 wk 15	at DEN	yes
2023 wk 11	at CHI	yes
2023 wk 10	at LAC	yes
2022 wk 17	at CHI	no
2022 wk 14	at MIN	yes
2022 wk 13	at JAX	yes
2022 wk 4	at SEA	yes

team history

61The Lions have covered 13 of 17 as a favorite after a loss

13 of 17, 76% in this spot

41 of 69, 59% everywhere else

DETDET at ARI2021-2026, Campbell and Goff

The 17 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2025 wk 17	at MIN	no
2025 wk 16	at PIT	no
2025 wk 14	at DAL	yes
2025 wk 12	at NYG	no
2025 wk 10	at WAS	yes
2025 wk 7	at TB	yes
2025 wk 2	at CHI	yes
2024 wk 16	at CHI	yes
2024 wk 3	at ARI	yes
2023 wk 18	at MIN	yes
2023 wk 15	at DEN	yes
2023 wk 13	at NO	yes
2023 wk 8	at LV	yes
2023 wk 3	at ATL	yes
2022 wk 17	at CHI	yes
2022 wk 13	at JAX	yes
2022 wk 4	at SEA	no

league history

60Favorites of under 7 have covered 18 of 29 in week 5 with a total of 48 or higher

18 of 29, 62% in this spot

897 of 1851, 48% everywhere else

inside the luck line · DET hereDET at ARI2016-2026

team history

59The Lions have covered 7 of 9 as a road favorite with a total of 48 or higher

7 of 9, 78% in this spot

47 of 77, 61% everywhere else

DETDET at ARI2021-2026, Campbell and Goff

The 9 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 4	at CAR	no
2025 wk 10	at WAS	yes
2025 wk 5	at CIN	yes
2024 wk 17	at SF	yes
2024 wk 12	at IND	yes
2024 wk 10	at HOU	no
2024 wk 6	at DAL	yes
2024 wk 3	at ARI	yes
2023 wk 10	at LAC	yes

49ers at SeahawksSun 4:25 PM ET

9Sheet →

team history

80The 49ers have gone over 17 of 21 outdoors when our model likes them

17 of 21, 81% in this spot

23 of 49, 47% everywhere else

SFSF at SEA2022-2026, Shanahan and Purdy

The 21 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 3	at ARI	yes
2025 wk 18	at SEA	no
2025 wk 17	at CHI	yes
2025 wk 15	at TEN	yes
2025 wk 10	at LA	yes
2025 wk 9	at NYG	yes
2024 wk 17	at DET	yes
2024 wk 15	at LA	no
2024 wk 14	at CHI	yes
2024 wk 12	at GB	yes
2024 wk 11	at SEA	no
2024 wk 5	at ARI	no
2024 wk 1	at NYJ	yes
2023 wk 18	at LA	yes
2023 wk 16	at BAL	yes
2023 wk 8	at CIN	yes
2023 wk 5	at DAL	yes
2022 wk 18	at ARI	yes
2022 wk 16	at WAS	yes
2022 wk 14	at TB	yes
2022 wk 7	at KC	yes

player line

79Sam Darnold under 4.5 rushing yards (-110): 12 of 20 outdoors as a favorite

12 of 20, 60% in this spot

4 of 16, 25% everywhere else

Under · QB · SEASF at SEA, Sun, Oct 11SF allows #30 to QBs, 0.67x league (12.1 vs 18.0 a game)

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2025 wk 9	at WAS	0.0	no
2025 wk 10	vs ARI	-2.0	no
2025 wk 12	at TEN	-1.0	no
2025 wk 13	vs MIN	0.0	no
2025 wk 15	vs IND	5.0	yes
2025 wk 16	vs LA	7.0	yes
2025 wk 17	at CAR	2.0	no
2025 wk 18	at SF	9.0	yes
2026 wk 1	vs NE	0.0	no
2026 wk 3	at WAS	5.0	yes

team history

75The 49ers have covered 10 of 13 on the road in a division game

10 of 13, 77% in this spot

29 of 59, 49% everywhere else

SFSF at SEA2022-2026, Shanahan and Purdy

The 13 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 1	at LA	yes
2025 wk 11	at ARI	yes
2025 wk 5	at LA	yes
2025 wk 1	at SEA	yes
2024 wk 18	at ARI	no
2024 wk 6	at SEA	yes
2024 wk 3	at LA	no
2023 wk 15	at ARI	yes
2023 wk 12	at SEA	yes
2023 wk 2	at LA	no
2022 wk 15	at SEA	yes
2022 wk 11	at ARI	yes
2022 wk 8	at LA	yes

his history

72Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 8 of his last 10 games at home with over 90.5 receiving yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

10 of 28, 36% everywhere else

WR · SeahawksSF at SEA, Sun, Oct 112025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sun, Sep 7 25	vs SF (+2.5)	124	yes
Sun, Sep 21 25	vs NO (-7.5)	96	yes
Sun, Oct 5 25	vs TB (-3.5)	132	yes
Mon, Oct 20 25	vs HOU (-3)	123	yes
Sun, Nov 9 25	vs ARI (-7)	93	yes
Sun, Nov 30 25	vs MIN (-12.5)	23	no
Sun, Dec 14 25	vs IND (-13.5)	113	yes
Thu, Dec 18 25	vs LA (-1.5)	96	yes
Wed, Sep 9 26	vs NE (-3)	122	yes
Sun, Oct 4 26	vs LAC (-7)	76	no

+ 5 more on this game

his history

70Christian McCaffrey has 8 of his last 10 games on the road with over 4.5 catches.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

14 of 30, 47% everywhere else

RB · 49ersSF at SEA, Sun, Oct 112025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sun, Sep 7 25	at SEA (-2.5)	9	yes
Sun, Sep 14 25	at NO (-3)	6	yes
Thu, Oct 2 25	at LA (+8.5)	8	yes
Sun, Oct 12 25	at TB (+3.5)	7	yes
Sun, Oct 26 25	at HOU (+2.5)	3	no
Sun, Nov 2 25	at NYG (-2.5)	5	yes
Sun, Nov 16 25	at ARI (-3.5)	5	yes
Sun, Nov 30 25	at CLE (-5.5)	4	no
Mon, Dec 22 25	at IND (-4.5)	6	yes
Thu, Sep 10 26	at LA (+3.5)	5	yes

player lineBetting Pass

69Christian McCaffrey: over a posted line, receiving yards

17 of 24, 71% in this spot

17 of 24, 71% everywhere else

Over · RB · SFSF at SEA, Sun, Oct 11SEA allows #7 to RBs, 1.16x league (36.5 vs 31.5 a game)

team history

65The 49ers have gone over 10 of 13 on the road in a division game

10 of 13, 77% in this spot

30 of 57, 53% everywhere else

SFSF at SEA2022-2026, Shanahan and Purdy

The 13 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2026 wk 1	at LA	no
2025 wk 11	at ARI	yes
2025 wk 5	at LA	yes
2025 wk 1	at SEA	no
2024 wk 18	at ARI	yes
2024 wk 6	at SEA	yes
2024 wk 3	at LA	yes
2023 wk 15	at ARI	yes
2023 wk 12	at SEA	yes
2023 wk 2	at LA	yes
2022 wk 15	at SEA	no
2022 wk 11	at ARI	yes
2022 wk 8	at LA	yes

league history

63Underdogs have covered 26 of 40 in week 5 in a division game

26 of 40, 65% in this spot

1321 of 2589, 51% everywhere else

inside the luck line · SF hereSF at SEA2016-2026

his history

56Brock Purdy has 8 of his last 10 games on the road with over 1.5 passing touchdowns.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

16 of 29, 55% everywhere else

QB · 49ersSF at SEA, Sun, Oct 112024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sun, Sep 22 24	at LA (-6)	3	yes
Thu, Oct 10 24	at SEA (-3.5)	3	yes
Sun, Nov 10 24	at TB (-6.5)	2	yes
Sun, Dec 1 24	at BUF (+6.5)	0	no
Sun, Dec 22 24	at MIA (-2)	2	yes
Sun, Sep 7 25	at SEA (-2.5)	2	yes
Sun, Nov 16 25	at ARI (-3.5)	3	yes
Sun, Nov 30 25	at CLE (-5.5)	1	no
Mon, Dec 22 25	at IND (-4.5)	5	yes
Thu, Sep 10 26	at LA (+3.5)	3	yes

Ravens at FalconsSun 8:20 PM ET

4Sheet →

his history

74Michael Penix Jr. has 5 of his last 6 games in prime time with over 219.5 passing yards.

5 of 6, 83% in this spot

4 of 10, 40% everywhere else

QB · FalconsBAL at ATL, Sun, Oct 112024-2026

The 6 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sun, Dec 29 24	at WAS (+3.5)	223	yes
Sun, Sep 14 25	at MIN (+3.5)	135	no
Mon, Oct 13 25	vs BUF (+3.5)	250	yes
Sun, Oct 19 25	at SF (+1.5)	241	yes
Thu, Sep 24 26	at GB (+4.5)	256	yes
Mon, Oct 5 26	at NO (+1.5)	223	yes

player lineBetting Pass

70Michael Penix Jr.: over a posted line, passing yards

4 of 5, 80% in this spot

4 of 10, 40% everywhere else

Over · QB · ATLBAL at ATL, Sun, Oct 11BAL allows #4 to QBs, 1.13x league (254.8 vs 225.7 a game)

The 5 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
2024 wk 17	at WAS	223.0	yes
2025 wk 2	at MIN	135.0	no
2025 wk 6	vs BUF	250.0	yes
2025 wk 7	at SF	241.0	yes
2026 wk 3	at GB	256.0	yes

his history

60Derrick Henry has 8 of his last 10 games on the road with over 84.5 rushing yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

18 of 35, 51% everywhere else

RB · RavensBAL at ATL, Sun, Oct 112025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sun, Sep 7 25	at BUF (-1.5)	169	yes
Sun, Sep 28 25	at KC (-2.5)	42	no
Thu, Oct 30 25	at MIA (-7.5)	119	yes
Sun, Nov 9 25	at MIN (-4.5)	75	no
Sun, Nov 16 25	at CLE (-7.5)	103	yes
Sun, Dec 14 25	at CIN (-2.5)	100	yes
Sat, Dec 27 25	at GB (+2.5)	216	yes
Sun, Jan 4 25	at PIT (-4.5)	126	yes
Sun, Sep 13 26	at IND (-3)	144	yes
Sun, Sep 27 26	at DAL (-3)	89	yes

team history

60The Ravens have covered 7 of 10 on the road in prime time

7 of 10, 70% in this spot

22 of 44, 50% everywhere else

BALBAL at ATL2023-2026, new coach in 2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2025 wk 18	at PIT	no
2025 wk 17	at GB	yes
2025 wk 9	at MIA	yes
2025 wk 1	at BUF	no
2024 wk 12	at LAC	yes
2024 wk 7	at TB	yes
2024 wk 1	at KC	no
2023 wk 16	at SF	yes
2023 wk 15	at JAX	yes
2023 wk 12	at LAC	yes

Monday 1 game · 6 fire

Bills at RamsMon 8:15 PM ET

6Sheet →

team history

78The Bills have gone under 7 of 9 on the road in prime time

7 of 9, 78% in this spot

18 of 45, 40% everywhere else

BUFBUF at LA2023-2026, new coach in 2026

The 9 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2025 wk 12	at HOU	yes
2025 wk 6	at ATL	yes
2024 wk 6	at NYJ	no
2024 wk 4	at BAL	yes
2024 wk 2	at MIA	yes
2023 wk 18	at MIA	yes
2023 wk 16	at LAC	no
2023 wk 9	at CIN	yes
2023 wk 1	at NYJ	yes

team history

74The Rams have gone under 10 of 13 as a home favorite with a total of 48 or higher

10 of 13, 77% in this spot

35 of 76, 46% everywhere else

LABUF at LA2021-2026, McVay and Stafford

The 13 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2025 wk 18	at ARI	no
2025 wk 15	at DET	no
2025 wk 12	at TB	yes
2025 wk 11	at SEA	yes
2025 wk 4	at IND	yes
2024 wk 17	at ARI	yes
2024 wk 10	at MIA	yes
2023 wk 15	at WAS	yes
2023 wk 6	at ARI	yes
2021 wk 13	at JAX	yes
2021 wk 9	at TEN	yes
2021 wk 7	at DET	yes
2021 wk 4	at ARI	no

team history

70The Rams have gone under 9 of 12 in prime time with a total of 48 or higher

9 of 12, 75% in this spot

36 of 77, 47% everywhere else

LABUF at LA2021-2026, McVay and Stafford

The 12 games

Game	Spot	Hit
2025 wk 17	at ATL	no
2025 wk 12	at TB	yes
2024 wk 17	at ARI	yes
2024 wk 15	at SF	yes
2024 wk 12	at PHI	no
2024 wk 10	at MIA	yes
2024 wk 1	at DET	yes
2022 wk 1	at BUF	yes
2021 wk 14	at ARI	no
2021 wk 10	at SF	yes
2021 wk 9	at TEN	yes
2021 wk 5	at SEA	yes

league history

66Unders have hit 33 of 50 in October on Monday

33 of 50, 66% in this spot

1335 of 2632, 51% everywhere else

inside the luck lineBUF at LA2016-2026

+ 2 more on this game

league history

60Favorites of under 7 have covered 18 of 29 in week 5 with a total of 48 or higher

18 of 29, 62% in this spot

897 of 1851, 48% everywhere else

inside the luck line · LA hereBUF at LA2016-2026

his history

59Josh Allen has 8 of his last 10 games in prime time with over 1.5 passing touchdowns.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

23 of 44, 52% everywhere else

QB · BillsBUF at LA, Mon, Oct 122024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Mon, Sep 23 24	vs JAX (-4)	4	yes
Sun, Sep 29 24	at BAL (+2.5)	0	no
Mon, Oct 14 24	at NYJ (-1)	2	yes
Sun, Dec 1 24	vs SF (-6.5)	2	yes
Sun, Sep 7 25	vs BAL (+1.5)	2	yes
Thu, Sep 18 25	vs MIA (-12.5)	3	yes
Sun, Oct 5 25	vs NE (-7.5)	2	yes
Mon, Oct 13 25	at ATL (-3.5)	2	yes
Thu, Nov 20 25	at HOU (-5.5)	0	no
Thu, Sep 17 26	vs DET (-5.5)	3	yes

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