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Weekly Lines · 2026

Week 1.

16 games, 11 plays posted before kickoff. 0 of 16 played so far. Our number on the three biggest disagreements is free; the rest is the Betting Pass until the week settles.

This week's plays: no graded plays yet. Season through week 1: no graded plays yet.

GameMarketTotalOur numberFinal
ARI @ LACSun, Sep 13 16:25 ETLAC -10.5opened -11.547.5LAC -4.2Sun, Sep 13 16:25 ET
NO @ DETSun, Sep 13 13:00 ETDET -749.5DET -1.5Sun, Sep 13 13:00 ET
BAL @ INDSun, Sep 13 13:00 ETIND +3.547.5IND -1.7Sun, Sep 13 13:00 ET
DEN @ KCMon, Sep 14 20:15 ETKC -343.5KC •••Mon, Sep 14 20:15 ET
DAL @ NYGSun, Sep 13 20:20 ETNYG +2.548.5NYG •••Sun, Sep 13 20:20 ET
BUF @ HOUSun, Sep 13 13:00 ETHOU +1.544.5HOU •••Sun, Sep 13 13:00 ET
CHI @ CARSun, Sep 13 13:00 ETCAR +2.546.5CAR •••Sun, Sep 13 13:00 ET
SF @ LAThu, Sep 10 20:35 ETLA -3.548.5LA •••Thu, Sep 10 20:35 ET
MIA @ LVSun, Sep 13 16:25 ETLV -3.540.5LV •••Sun, Sep 13 16:25 ET
TB @ CINSun, Sep 13 13:00 ETCIN -3.550.5CIN •••Sun, Sep 13 13:00 ET
CLE @ JAXSun, Sep 13 13:00 ETJAX -7.540.5JAX •••Sun, Sep 13 13:00 ET
NE @ SEAWed, Sep 9 20:20 ETSEA -3.544.5SEA •••Wed, Sep 9 20:20 ET
ATL @ PITSun, Sep 13 13:00 ETPIT -342.5PIT •••Sun, Sep 13 13:00 ET
NYJ @ TENSun, Sep 13 13:00 ETTEN -1.5opened -339.5TEN •••Sun, Sep 13 13:00 ET
GB @ MINSun, Sep 13 16:25 ETMIN -1.5opened +1.546.5MIN •••Sun, Sep 13 16:25 ET
WAS @ PHISun, Sep 13 16:25 ETPHI -4.544.5PHI •••Sun, Sep 13 16:25 ET
Market and our number as posted before kickoff; the closing line and cover are shown once a game settles.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The card pre-registered rules, frozen before Week 1

MIA @ LV THE CARD
MIA +3.5 1.0u
  • PR-001 Model road lean in a low-total game 661-551 (55%)
  • PR-005 Model lean vs a team looking ahead to a division game 764-680 (53%) registered to settle it forward, not because we believe it
  • PR-004 Underdog vs a team looking ahead to a division game 991-915 (52%) registered to settle it forward, not because we believe it
CLE @ JAX THE CARD
CLE •••
1 pre-registered rule fires here. Unlock with the Betting Pass.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

NO @ DET
DET •••
11 angles fire on this side. Unlock with the Betting Pass.
ARI @ LAC
LAC •••
5 angles fire on this side. Unlock with the Betting Pass.
MIA @ LV TOTAL
Total •••
1 angle fire on this side. Unlock with the Betting Pass.
CLE @ JAX TOTAL
Total •••
1 angle fire on this side. Unlock with the Betting Pass.
NYJ @ TEN TOTAL
Total •••
1 angle fire on this side. Unlock with the Betting Pass.

Tracked, not bet TEST rules registered to settle a question

NE @ SEA TEST
NE •••
2 pre-registered rules fire here. Unlock with the Betting Pass.
DAL @ NYG TEST
DAL •••
2 pre-registered rules fire here. Unlock with the Betting Pass.
ARI @ LAC TEST
ARI •••
2 pre-registered rules fire here. Unlock with the Betting Pass.
CHI @ CAR TEST
CHI •••
2 pre-registered rules fire here. Unlock with the Betting Pass.

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. Every play is graded at the number we posted before kickoff, never at the closing line. A TEST rule is pre-registered to settle a question in public and is never counted in the record.

The 2026 record Week 2 →

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