Model trends · 2026
NFL Week 1 Model Trends, 2026
Logged before kickoff, graded after the game. Every item opens its game.
Model trends
Prop spots at the posted line, player and team trends in the spot this week puts them in, and first-quarter tells, in confidence order. The number is confidence, 0 to 100: the record after shrinking for sample size, how many signals agree, and how far our number sits from the market. The bright bar is this spot, the faded bar is everywhere else.
70Cade Otton over 27.5 receiving yards (-120): 7 of 8 outdoors as an underdog
69NO +7 at DET, 3u: model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), in a dome, high total (48+)
68Kenneth Gainwell over 21.5 receiving yards (-115): 6 of 8 outdoors as an underdog
62Josh Downs over 44.5 receiving yards (-115): 10 of 16 as an underdog
60TB have covered 17 of 26 on the road
70Cade Otton over 27.5 receiving yards (-120): 7 of 8 outdoors as an underdog
68Kenneth Gainwell over 21.5 receiving yards (-115): 6 of 8 outdoors as an underdog
62Josh Downs over 44.5 receiving yards (-115): 10 of 16 as an underdog
58Kenneth Gainwell over 3.5 catches (+135): 5 of 8 outdoors as an underdog
53Garrett Wilson over 59.5 receiving yards (-115): 6 of 6 on the road as an underdog
53Kyler Murray under 22.5 rushing yards: 5 of 7 at home as a favorite
52Dontayvion Wicks over 29.5 receiving yards (-110): 5 of 6 in division games as a favorite
51Rachaad White over 14.5 receiving yards (-120): 7 of 8 outdoors as an underdog
49Noah Gray over 9.5 receiving yards (-120): 18 of 23 as a favorite
48Travis Kelce over 42.5 receiving yards (-115): 9 of 10 in division games as a favorite
46Nico Collins under 68.5 receiving yards: 7 of 11 as an underdog
46RJ Harvey under 18.5 rushing yards: 5 of 8 on the road
92 more player lines
43Joe Burrow over 6.5 rushing yards (-125): 7 of 10 at home as a favorite
42Cade Otton over 3.5 catches (+130): 6 of 8 outdoors as an underdog
41Samaje Perine over 6.5 receiving yards (-120): 14 of 19 as a favorite
40Samaje Perine under 20.5 rushing yards: 15 of 19 as a favorite
38Josh Downs over 4.5 catches (+120): 4 of 6 at home as an underdog
35Dalton Schultz under 3.5 catches: 9 of 14 as an underdog
33Mike Gesicki over 2.5 catches (+125): 11 of 17 as a favorite
29Xavier Hutchinson under 2.5 catches: 12 of 13 as an underdog
25Jordan Love under 239.5 passing yards: 5 of 6 on the road indoors
25Adam Trautman under 7.5 receiving yards: 5 of 8 in prime time
24Dallas Goedert over 35.5 receiving yards (-115): 4 of 6 in division games outdoors
23Saquon Barkley under 2.5 catches: 18 of 26 outdoors
22Jaxson Dart over 31.5 rushing yards (-115): 5 of 7 at home
20Tony Pollard over 52.5 rushing yards (-115): 4 of 5 at home as a favorite
19Tucker Kraft under 4.5 catches: 5 of 5 as an underdog
18Saquon Barkley over 77.5 rushing yards (-115): 6 of 8 in division games outdoors
17Matthew Golden under 3.5 catches: 5 of 8 on the road
17Jalen McMillan under 2.5 catches: 5 of 8 on the road
17Emeka Egbuka under 4.5 catches: 3 of 5 on the road as an underdog
16Jake Ferguson under 30.5 receiving yards: 4 of 5 in division games outdoors
16De'Von Achane under 28.5 receiving yards: 4 of 5 on the road indoors
16Xavier Hutchinson under 17.5 receiving yards: 9 of 13 as an underdog
16Matthew Golden under 38.5 receiving yards: 5 of 8 on the road
15Emeka Egbuka under 53.5 receiving yards: 6 of 9 on the road
15Jalen McMillan under 34.5 receiving yards: 5 of 8 on the road
14Christian Watson under 4.5 catches: 11 of 11 on the road
14Jordan Love under 10.5 rushing yards: 4 of 5 as an underdog
14Nico Collins under 5.5 catches: 8 of 11 as an underdog
9Rashod Bateman over 1.5 catches (-190): 8 of 12 on the road as a favorite
9Malik Nabers over 60.5 receiving yards (-115): 6 of 10 at home
9Greg Dulcich under 2.5 catches: 3 of 5 on the road
8Jayden Reed under 3.5 catches: 6 of 9 in division games
8Geno Smith over 201.5 passing yards (-115): 9 of 12 outdoors as an underdog
6Dalton Kincaid under 36.5 receiving yards: 5 of 8 on the road as a favorite
6Breece Hall under 17.5 receiving yards: 6 of 10 on the road as an underdog
6Malik Washington over 2.5 catches (-150): 9 of 15 on the road
5Woody Marks over 30.5 rushing yards (-115): 5 of 8 at home
5Malik Willis under 38.5 rushing yards
4Bucky Irving over 1.5 catches (-200): 15 of 20 outdoors
54De'Von Achane has 10 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.
54Derrick Henry has 10 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 50+ rushing yards.
54Justin Jefferson has 10 of his last 10 games at home as an underdog with 50+ receiving yards.
54De'Von Achane has 10 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 50+ rushing yards.
54Derrick Henry has 10 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.
54Justin Jefferson has 10 of his last 10 games at home as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards.
54Jacoby Brissett has 8 of his last 10 games indoors as a favorite with 2+ passing touchdowns.
54Saquon Barkley has 8 of his last 10 games in division games outdoors with a rushing touchdown.
54Jacoby Brissett has 8 of his last 10 games indoors as an underdog with 2+ passing touchdowns.
54Dallas Goedert has 7 of his last 10 games outdoors with a receiving touchdown.
51Chase Brown has 8 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 50+ rushing yards.
51Chase Brown has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.
49Josh Downs has 7 of his last 10 games at home as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards.
45Chris Olave has 10 of his last 10 games indoors with 50+ receiving yards.
45Ja'Marr Chase has 10 of his last 10 games at home with 6+ catches.
45Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 9 of his last 10 games at home with 75+ receiving yards.
45James Cook has 9 of his last 10 games on the road with 50+ rushing yards.
45Trey McBride has 8 of his last 10 games on the road with a receiving touchdown.
45J.K. Dobbins has 8 of his last 10 games outdoors with 75+ rushing yards.
45Rico Dowdle has 6 of his last 8 games at home outdoors with 50+ rushing yards.
45Jauan Jennings has 7 of his last 10 games as an underdog with a receiving touchdown.
45Marvin Harrison Jr. has 7 of his last 10 games indoors with 50+ receiving yards.
45Jalen Hurts has 7 of his last 10 games outdoors as an underdog with 2+ passing touchdowns.
43Javonte Williams has 8 of his last 10 games in prime time with 50+ rushing yards.
40Jared Goff has 7 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 2+ passing touchdowns.
39Tee Higgins has 8 of his last 10 games at home with a receiving touchdown.
38Dak Prescott has 9 of his last 10 games in prime time as an underdog with 250+ passing yards.
38Dak Prescott has 9 of his last 10 games in prime time as a favorite with 250+ passing yards.
37Aaron Rodgers has 7 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 2+ passing touchdowns.
32Nico Collins has 9 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ receiving yards.
31Zay Flowers has 9 of his last 10 games on the road as an underdog with 50+ receiving yards.
31Zay Flowers has 9 of his last 10 games on the road as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards.
31Michael Pittman has 7 of his last 9 games outdoors as an underdog with 6+ catches.
29Baker Mayfield has 8 of his last 10 games outdoors as a favorite with 2+ passing touchdowns.
29Baker Mayfield has 8 of his last 10 games outdoors as an underdog with 2+ passing touchdowns.
28Tony Pollard has 8 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 50+ rushing yards.
28Tony Pollard has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.
28Jordan Love has 7 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 250+ passing yards.
28Caleb Williams has 7 of his last 10 games outdoors with 2+ passing touchdowns.
25Courtland Sutton has 9 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards.
25Courtland Sutton has 9 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 50+ receiving yards.
22Terry McLaurin has 9 of his last 10 games in division games as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards.
22Terry McLaurin has 9 of his last 10 games in division games as an underdog with 50+ receiving yards.
20Christian McCaffrey has 9 of his last 10 games on the road with 50+ rushing yards.
18Josh Jacobs has 9 of his last 10 games indoors with 50+ rushing yards.
9Kenneth Walker III has 5 of his last 6 games in prime time as an underdog with 50+ rushing yards.
9Kenneth Walker III has 5 of his last 6 games in prime time as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.
9George Pickens has 8 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 50+ receiving yards.
9George Pickens has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards.
1Amon-Ra St. Brown has 9 of his last 10 games indoors with 50+ receiving yards.
0Jonathan Taylor has 9 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ rushing yards.
0Rashee Rice has 8 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ receiving yards.
0D'Andre Swift has 8 of his last 10 games on the road with 50+ rushing yards.
60TB have covered 17 of 26 on the road
57GB have gone over 18 of 26 on the road
46SF have gone over 15 of 20 when our model likes them
39SF have covered 11 of 17 in prime time
37WAS have gone over 22 of 32 as an underdog
33DAL have covered 7 of 10 in a division game when our model fades them
33DET have gone over 23 of 35 indoors
33TB have covered 15 of 25 as an underdog
30TB have covered 7 of 10 on the road when our model likes them
29DAL have covered 11 of 18 in a division game
27NE have gone over 22 of 35 as an underdog
25DET have covered 12 of 15 when our model fades them
45 more game trends
25LAC have covered 10 of 14 indoors when our model fades them
25CLE have gone over 15 of 25 on the road
25LAC have gone over 15 of 33 indoors
24CAR have covered 13 of 24 at home
23HOU have covered 14 of 24 as an underdog
22MIA have gone over 8 of 11 on the road when our model likes them
21DET have gone over 17 of 25 at home
21SF have covered 1 of 9 as an underdog
20WAS have gone over 13 of 18 in a division game
20NE have covered 14 of 24 on the road
19DEN have covered 4 of 13 in prime time
18SF have gone over 6 of 8 in prime time when our model likes them
18LA have gone over 11 of 25 at home
18LA have gone over 7 of 20 with a total of 48 or higher
17PHI have gone over 10 of 18 in a division game
17MIA have covered 9 of 25 as an underdog
16CLE have covered 6 of 24 on the road
14GB have gone over 7 of 10 indoors
14NO have gone over 4 of 8 as an underdog of 7 or more
14DEN have gone over 6 of 18 in a division game
14DAL have covered 7 of 21 with a total of 48 or higher
14MIN have gone over 8 of 25 at home
14KC have gone over 6 of 26 at home
14KC have gone over 3 of 18 in a division game
12CHI have covered 9 of 13 as a favorite
11BAL have covered 16 of 25 on the road
9DET have covered 10 of 13 as a favorite when our model fades them
9LAC have covered 7 of 10 at home when our model fades them
9CHI have covered 11 of 24 on the road
9BUF have gone over 11 of 25 on the road
9ARI have gone over 10 of 25 on the road
9TEN have gone over 2 of 9 as a favorite
3NYG have gone over 10 of 18 in a division game
3TEN have covered 1 of 8 as a favorite
2LA have covered 13 of 18 in a division game
2MIN have covered 14 of 30 indoors
1IND have gone over 10 of 14 at home when our model likes them
0PIT have covered 8 of 11 outdoors when our model fades them
0PHI have covered 8 of 17 in a division game
0SEA have covered 9 of 24 at home
0GB have covered 9 of 25 on the road
0NYJ have covered 7 of 24 with a total of 41 or under
14Road teams have covered 33 of 50 on Thursday with a total of 48 or higher
11Underdogs have covered 46 of 73 in September with a total of 41 or under
5Underdogs have covered 34 of 55 in a division game in week 1
DEN @ KCposted KC -0.5, total 7.5, team totals DEN 0.5 / KC 3.5DEN 32 of 53 1Q cover (60%, league 50%)KC 37 of 58 1Q under (64%, league 52%)DAL @ NYGposted DAL -0.5, total 9.5, team totals DAL 6.5 / NYG 3.5DAL 21 of 52 1Q under (40%, league 52%)NYG 30 of 51 1Q under (59%, league 52%)ARI @ LACposted LAC -3, total 9.5, team totals ARI 0.5 / LAC 6.5ARI 29 of 51 1Q cover (57%, league 50%)LAC 34 of 53 opened with a punt or FG (64%, league 60%)MIA @ 
LVposted LV -0.5, total 7, team totals MIA 0.5 / LV 3.5MIA 31 of 52 1Q cover (60%, league 50%)LV 34 of 51 opened with a punt or FG (67%, league 60%)GB @ MINposted MIN -0.5, total 7.5, team totals GB 3.5 / MIN 3.5GB 25 of 55 opened with a punt or FG (46%, league 60%)MIN 28 of 52 opened with a punt or FG (54%, league 60%)WAS @ PHIposted PHI -0.5, total 7.5, team totals WAS 0.5 / PHI 6.5WAS 22 of 54 1Q cover (41%, league 50%)PHI 27 of 57 1Q under (47%, league 52%)CHI @ CARposted CHI -0.5, total 9.5, team totals CHI 3.5 / CAR 3.5CHI 31 of 53 1Q under (58%, league 52%)CAR 31 of 52 1Q under (60%, league 52%)TB @ 
CINposted CIN -0.5, total 10, team totals TB 3.5 / CIN 6.5TB 24 of 54 1Q cover (44%, league 50%)CIN 28 of 51 opened with a punt or FG (55%, league 60%)NO @ DETposted DET -3, total 10, team totals NO 0.5 / DET 6.5NO 18 of 51 1Q cover (35%, league 50%)DET 29 of 55 opened with a punt or FG (53%, league 60%)BUF @ HOUposted BUF -0.5, total 7.5, team totals BUF 3.5 / HOU 3.5BUF 27 of 58 opened with a punt or FG (47%, league 60%)HOU 26 of 57 1Q under (46%, league 52%)BAL @ INDposted BAL -0.5, total 9.5, team totals BAL 6.5 / IND 3.5BAL 31 of 55 1Q cover (56%, league 50%)IND 25 of 51 opened with a punt or FG (49%, league 60%)CLE @ 
JAXposted no first-quarter line yetCLE 22 of 52 1Q under (42%, league 52%)JAX 38 of 52 opened with a punt or FG (73%, league 60%)
ATL @ PITposted PIT -0.5, total 7.5, team totals ATL 0.5 / PIT 3.5ATL 22 of 51 1Q cover (43%, league 50%)PIT 40 of 54 opened with a punt or FG (74%, league 60%)NYJ @ TENposted TEN -0.5, total 7, team totals NYJ 0.5 / TEN 0.5NYJ 37 of 51 opened with a punt or FG (72%, league 60%)TEN 35 of 51 opened with a punt or FG (69%, league 60%)SF @ LAposted no first-quarter line yetSF 34 of 56 1Q cover (61%, league 50%)LA 25 of 57 1Q cover (44%, league 50%)NE @ SEAposted no first-quarter line yetNE 38 of 56 opened with a punt or FG (68%, league 60%)SEA 36 of 55 opened with a punt or FG (66%, league 60%)How the trends grade. Prop board: 331 logged, 276 of them after kickoff, none graded yet. Player trends: 53 logged, none graded yet. Team trends: 54 logged, none graded yet. League trends: 9 logged, none graded yet.