Model trends · 2026
NFL Week 4 Model Trends, 2026
Logged before kickoff, graded after the game. Every item opens its game.
Model trends
Prop spots at the posted line, player and team trends in the spot this week puts them in, and first-quarter tells, in confidence order. The number is confidence, 0 to 100: the record after shrinking for sample size, how many signals agree, and how far our number sits from the market. The bright bar is this spot, the faded bar is everywhere else.
52MIA +7.5 at MIN, 1u: model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), in a dome, on turf
17ATL +2.5 at NO, 1u: model fades them by 2.0+, at home, less rest than the opponent, division game
5Over 40.5 PIT at CLE, 1u: over when low total (41 or under), early season
How the trends grade. Prop board: 331 logged, 276 of them after kickoff, none graded yet. Player trends: 53 logged, none graded yet. Team trends: 54 logged, none graded yet. League trends: 9 logged, none graded yet.