Arizona State at 
BYU
Total 51.5
The script. The market has BYU by 14.5 at a total of 51.5: BYU 33, Arizona State 18.5 on paper. BYU ahead means Martin carries it late; Arizona State chasing means Boley throws, and Harris and Miller get the volume.
How it plays. The total of 51.5 is ordinary for college. Conference play.
What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.
BYU is favored by 14.5 at home against Arizona State, and the total is 51.5. Our number has BYU by 11.3, so the lean is Arizona State +14.5. A lean, not a play. BYU has gone over 6 of 8 as a favorite of 14 or more, 2023-2026, better than the 19-16 they are everywhere else.
Our number vs the market
College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.
The card
Nothing on the college card for this game yet.
Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.
Bets is the share of tickets; money is the share of dollars. When the money runs well ahead of the bets, fewer people are betting bigger on that side, the move bettors call sharp money.
Spread
Arizona State+14.5-14.5BYUArizona State: 50% of the bets, 96% of the money. Fewer people, betting bigger.
Since 2018: when the money ran 20 or more points ahead of the bets on a side, the money side covered 50.4% (532-524-14, 1,070 games). No better than a coin flip.
Bets and money splits via DraftKings, as of Sun 5:05 PM ET. One book's customers, not the whole market.
Arizona State- QB Cutter Boley 260 passing yards a game in 4 games
- RB Kyson Brown 64 rushing yards a game in 4 games, 26 last season
- RB Marquis Gillis 24 rushing yards a game in 4 games
- WR Reed Harris 125 receiving yards a game in 4 games
- WR Omarion Miller 58 receiving yards a game in 4 games
- WR Cory Butler Jr. 18 receiving yards a game in 2 games
BYU- QB Bear Bachmeier 202 passing yards a game in 5 games, 219 last season
- RB LJ Martin 86 rushing yards a game in 4 games, 99 last season
- RB Journee Tonga 45 rushing yards a game in 4 games
- WR Legend Glasker 76 receiving yards a game in 5 games
- WR Kyler Kasper 36 receiving yards a game in 5 games
- WR Jojo Phillips 13 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 22 last season
Arizona State with the ballWhat they like to do. Arizona State play fast (20th).
Where they win and lose. They break explosive runs (15th) and they never hit a deep one (25th-worst).
What the BYU defense brings. They take the ball away (10th).
What works against them. Keep it in front: they do not hit deep shots (25th-worst).
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
BYU with the ballWhat they like to do. BYU are middle of the country in how they play.
Where they win and lose. They protect the quarterback (7th).
What the Arizona State defense brings. They keep it in front (10th).
What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
How each team covers in this spot
Arizona StateBYUAgainst the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.
BYU 23 at Arizona State 28Arizona State covered, Arizona State -3.5Arizona State 17 at BYU 27BYU covered, BYU +3.5