Game angles
College week 4: 4 team trends and 2 games where our number disagrees with the market. The sealed 2023-2025 college read came back 50.9% on spreads, inside the luck band: our number against the market, never a bet.
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The Bears have gone under 10 of 13 in prime time. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2025, new QB in 2026. Their totals in that spot ran 43.5 to 49.5.
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The Bears have gone over 12 of 19 outdoors after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2025, new QB in 2026. Their totals in that spot ran 38 to 51.5.
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The Bears have covered 14 of 22 at home. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2025, new QB in 2026.
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The Bears have covered 10 of 16 outdoors after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2025, new QB in 2026.
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The Bears have covered 7 of 11 in prime time. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2025, new QB in 2026.
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The Bears have gone over 7 of 11 outdoors when our model likes them. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2025, new QB in 2026. Their totals in that spot ran 38.5 to 45.5.
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The Eagles have covered 16 of 26 on the road outdoors. Counted 2021-2026, Sirianni and Hurts.
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The Broncos have gone under 14 of 23 as an underdog. Counted 2023-2026, new QB in 2024. Their totals in that spot ran 37.5 to 47.5.
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The Broncos have gone under 7 of 11 outdoors in prime time. Counted 2023-2026, new QB in 2024. Their totals in that spot ran 37.5 to 47.5.
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The Broncos have gone over 11 of 17 when our model likes them. Counted 2023-2026, new QB in 2024. Their totals in that spot ran 37 to 47.5.
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The Broncos have covered 5 of 8 at home when our model likes them. Counted 2023-2026, new QB in 2024.
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The Rams have gone under 15 of 23 in prime time. Counted 2021-2026, McVay and Stafford. Their totals in that spot ran 42.5 to 53.5.
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The Rams have covered 15 of 24 as a road favorite. Counted 2021-2026, McVay and Stafford.
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The Ravens have covered 7 of 8 on the road after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2026.
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The Ravens have covered 17 of 26 on the road. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2026.
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The Ravens have covered 10 of 13 as a favorite after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2026.
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The Ravens have gone over 12 of 16 after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2026. Their totals in that spot ran 38.5 to 51.
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The Saints have gone under 9 of 12 as a home favorite. Counted 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2025. Their totals in that spot ran 39.5 to 42.
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The Saints have gone under 17 of 25 at home. Counted 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2025. Their totals in that spot ran 39 to 47.5.
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The Raiders have gone under 15 of 24 as a road underdog. Counted 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2026. Their totals in that spot ran 39.5 to 47.
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The 49ers have covered 31 of 48 as a favorite outdoors. Counted 2022-2026, Shanahan and Purdy.
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The 49ers have gone under 7 of 10 as a home favorite in a division game. Counted 2022-2026, Shanahan and Purdy. Their totals in that spot ran 40 to 48.5.
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The 49ers have gone under 8 of 13 as a favorite of 7 or more at home. Counted 2022-2026, Shanahan and Purdy. Their totals in that spot ran 40 to 48.5.
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The 49ers have covered 6 of 9 as a favorite of 7 or more in a division game. Counted 2022-2026, Shanahan and Purdy.
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The 49ers have gone over 18 of 24 when our model likes them. Counted 2022-2026, Shanahan and Purdy. Their totals in that spot ran 40 to 49.5.
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The Cardinals have gone under 16 of 26 on the road. Counted 2023-2026, new QB in 2025. Their totals in that spot ran 41 to 49.5.
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The Cardinals have gone over 21 of 34 after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new QB in 2025. Their totals in that spot ran 41.5 to 49.5.
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The Buccaneers have covered 7 of 11 as an underdog after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, Bowles and Mayfield.
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The Buccaneers have gone over 7 of 11 as an underdog after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, Bowles and Mayfield. Their totals in that spot ran 41 to 49.5.
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The Vikings have covered 10 of 12 as a favorite outdoors. Counted 2023-2026, new QB in 2026.
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The Vikings have covered 13 of 17 outdoors. Counted 2023-2026, new QB in 2026.
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The Vikings have gone under 18 of 29 as a favorite. Counted 2023-2026, new QB in 2026. Their totals in that spot ran 39.5 to 47.5.
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The Vikings have covered 15 of 23 on the road. Counted 2023-2026, new QB in 2026.
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The Bills have gone under 6 of 8 with a total of 48 or higher with extra rest. Counted 2018-2026, McDermott and Allen. Their totals in that spot ran 48.5 to 54.
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The Bills have gone over 19 of 28 as a favorite when our model likes them. Counted 2018-2026, McDermott and Allen. Their totals in that spot ran 37 to 50.5.
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The Bills have gone under 6 of 9 with extra rest when our model likes them. Counted 2018-2026, McDermott and Allen. Their totals in that spot ran 36.5 to 53.5.
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The Chargers have gone under 13 of 18 outdoors. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2024. Their totals in that spot ran 37 to 45.5.
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The Chargers have gone under 7 of 9 as a road underdog. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2024. Their totals in that spot ran 36 to 54.
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The Chargers have gone under 17 of 25 on the road. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2024. Their totals in that spot ran 37 to 48.5.
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The Chargers have gone under 6 of 8 as an underdog after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2024. Their totals in that spot ran 36 to 54.
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The Browns have gone under 15 of 25 at home. Counted 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2026. Their totals in that spot ran 33.5 to 44.5.
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The Browns have covered 7 of 11 at home when our model likes them. Counted 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2026.
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The Lions have gone over 13 of 13 as a favorite with extra rest. Counted 2021-2026, Campbell and Goff. Their totals in that spot ran 46.5 to 52.5.
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The Lions have gone over 31 of 46 as a favorite. Counted 2021-2026, Campbell and Goff. Their totals in that spot ran 44.5 to 54.
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The Lions have gone over 13 of 15 indoors with extra rest. Counted 2021-2026, Campbell and Goff. Their totals in that spot ran 46.5 to 54.5.
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The Lions have gone over 28 of 43 at home. Counted 2021-2026, Campbell and Goff. Their totals in that spot ran 45 to 54.
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The Lions have gone over 15 of 21 with extra rest. Counted 2021-2026, Campbell and Goff. Their totals in that spot ran 46.5 to 52.5.
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The Lions have covered 9 of 11 after a loss with extra rest. Counted 2021-2026, Campbell and Goff.
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The Lions have gone over 34 of 56 indoors. Counted 2021-2026, Campbell and Goff. Their totals in that spot ran 45.5 to 54.
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The Lions have covered 13 of 17 as a favorite after a loss. Counted 2021-2026, Campbell and Goff.
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The Lions have covered 19 of 27 indoors after a loss. Counted 2021-2026, Campbell and Goff.
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The Jets have gone over 22 of 35 after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2025, new QB in 2026. Their totals in that spot ran 35.5 to 44.5.
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The Jets have covered 6 of 8 as a road underdog when our model likes them. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2025, new QB in 2026.
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The Colts have gone over 18 of 27 at home. Counted 2023-2026, new QB in 2025. Their totals in that spot ran 41.5 to 48.5.
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The Colts have covered 11 of 18 in a division game. Counted 2023-2026, new QB in 2025.
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The Colts have covered 15 of 24 as an underdog when our model likes them. Counted 2023-2026, new QB in 2025.
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The Texans have gone under 9 of 11 as a favorite after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, Ryans and Stroud. Their totals in that spot ran 39.5 to 45.5.
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The Jaguars have gone under 10 of 14 at home after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2025. Their totals in that spot ran 38 to 44.5.
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The Jaguars have gone under 14 of 23 after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2025. Their totals in that spot ran 38 to 46.
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The Jaguars have gone over 9 of 14 as a home favorite. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2025. Their totals in that spot ran 40 to 45.5.
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The Jaguars have covered 10 of 14 as a home favorite. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2025.
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The Patriots have covered 13 of 20 on the road outdoors. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2025, new QB in 2024.
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The Patriots have gone over 21 of 33 as an underdog outdoors. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2025, new QB in 2024. Their totals in that spot ran 37.5 to 48.5.
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The Dolphins have gone over 13 of 21 outdoors after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2026. Their totals in that spot ran 37 to 49.
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The Dolphins have covered 8 of 13 as an underdog after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2026.
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The Dolphins have gone under 7 of 11 at home when our model likes them. Counted 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2026. Their totals in that spot ran 44.5 to 50.5.
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The Dolphins have covered 6 of 10 after a loss when our model likes them. Counted 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2026.
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The Chiefs have gone over 15 of 20 as a favorite of 7 or more on the road. Counted 2018-2026, Reid and Mahomes. Their totals in that spot ran 41.5 to 53.5.
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The Giants have covered 10 of 14 outdoors with a total of 41 or under. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025.
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The Giants have gone over 9 of 15 with a total of 41 or under after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025. Their totals in that spot ran 37.5 to 41.
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The Titans have gone over 21 of 32 as an underdog after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025. Their totals in that spot ran 37.5 to 45.5.
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The Titans have gone under 7 of 10 outdoors with extra rest. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025. Their totals in that spot ran 37.5 to 42.
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The Titans have gone over 14 of 23 as a road underdog. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025. Their totals in that spot ran 37 to 45.
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The Titans have gone over 11 of 17 when our model likes them. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025. Their totals in that spot ran 36 to 46.5.
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The Steelers have covered 9 of 9 at home in a division game. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025.
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The Steelers have covered 9 of 10 in a division game after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025.
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The Steelers have covered 13 of 18 in a division game. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025.
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The Steelers have covered 18 of 27 at home. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025.
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The Steelers have covered 12 of 18 outdoors after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025.
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The Steelers have gone under 6 of 9 at home in a division game. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025. Their totals in that spot ran 37.5 to 48.5.
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The Commanders have gone over 19 of 26 as an underdog outdoors. Counted 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2024. Their totals in that spot ran 38.5 to 50.
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The Commanders have gone over 24 of 34 as an underdog. Counted 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2024. Their totals in that spot ran 40.5 to 50.5.
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The Commanders have gone over 12 of 15 at home after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2024. Their totals in that spot ran 42.5 to 50.5.
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The Commanders have gone over 16 of 23 outdoors after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2024. Their totals in that spot ran 39 to 50.
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The Commanders have gone over 17 of 25 at home. Counted 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2024. Their totals in that spot ran 42.5 to 50.
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The Commanders have gone over 22 of 33 when our model likes them. Counted 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2024. Their totals in that spot ran 43.5 to 50.
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The Seahawks have covered 18 of 26 on the road. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2024, new QB in 2026.
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The Seahawks have gone under 10 of 15 on the road outdoors. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2024, new QB in 2026. Their totals in that spot ran 40.5 to 47.5.
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The Seahawks have gone under 9 of 14 as a road favorite. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2024, new QB in 2026. Their totals in that spot ran 39 to 47.5.
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The Packers have gone under 15 of 24 at home. Counted 2023-2026, LaFleur and Love. Their totals in that spot ran 41.5 to 48.
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The Packers have gone over 11 of 18 in prime time. Counted 2023-2026, LaFleur and Love. Their totals in that spot ran 38.5 to 49.5.
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The Falcons have covered 7 of 11 as a road underdog after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2024, new QB in 2026.
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The Falcons have covered 5 of 8 outdoors after a loss. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2024, new QB in 2026.
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The Falcons have covered 5 of 8 as an underdog in prime time. Counted 2023-2026, new coach in 2024, new QB in 2026.
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Underdogs of under 7 have covered 29 of 41 in September after the road team lost by 14 or more. Every game that fit, 2016-2026. Inside the luck line: a count, not an edge.
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Underdogs of under 7 have covered 29 of 41 in September after the road team lost by 14 or more. Every game that fit, 2016-2026. Inside the luck line: a count, not an edge.
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Underdogs of under 7 have covered 24 of 34 in week 3 with a total of 48 or higher. Every game that fit, 2016-2026. Inside the luck line: a count, not an edge.
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Road teams have covered 39 of 60 in September after the road team lost by 14 or more. Every game that fit, 2016-2026. Inside the luck line: a count, not an edge.
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Road teams have covered 39 of 60 in September after the road team lost by 14 or more. Every game that fit, 2016-2026. Inside the luck line: a count, not an edge.
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Road teams have covered 39 of 60 in September after the road team lost by 14 or more. Every game that fit, 2016-2026. Inside the luck line: a count, not an edge.
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Underdogs have covered 27 of 40 in week 3 with a total of 48 or higher. Every game that fit, 2016-2026. Inside the luck line: a count, not an edge.
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Underdogs have covered 27 of 40 in week 3 with a total of 48 or higher. Every game that fit, 2016-2026. Inside the luck line: a count, not an edge.
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Home teams have covered 14 of 23 in week 3 after the home team lost by 14 or more. Every game that fit, 2016-2026. Inside the luck line: a count, not an edge.
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Home teams have covered 14 of 23 in week 3 after the home team lost by 14 or more. Every game that fit, 2016-2026. Inside the luck line: a count, not an edge.
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Home teams have covered 14 of 23 in week 3 after the home team lost by 14 or more. Every game that fit, 2016-2026. Inside the luck line: a count, not an edge.
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Home teams have covered 14 of 23 in week 3 after the home team lost by 14 or more. Every game that fit, 2016-2026. Inside the luck line: a count, not an edge.
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Texas A&M has gone over 11 of 13 on the road. Counted 2023-2026.
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Oklahoma has covered 10 of 13 coming off a loss. Counted 2023-2026.
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Texas A&M has gone over 16 of 24 in conference play. Counted 2023-2026.
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USC has gone over 15 of 23 at home. Counted 2023-2026.
Nothing fits that cut. Loosen one filter.
A team trend counts one team in one spot over the seasons its coach and quarterback have been in place, against what it did everywhere else. A slate read counts every game that fit the spot since 2016; one inside the luck line is a count, not an edge.