Who do fans take first overall in 2027 mock drafts?

Jeremiah Smith, in 72% of the fan mock drafts that reached pick one.

Where does this data come from?

Every mock draft run on the StickToTheModel simulator, counted nightly. Fan picks are the picks users made for their own team; the sims are full drafts with all 32 teams drafting.

How is the chance a player is still there worked out?

From the simulated drafts: the share of sims that took him before that pick, taken away from 100.

FreeMock Draft Simulator · seven rounds, trades, every pick graded as you make itStart a mock

Mock Draft Simulator / Community

Community Mock Draft 2027

Updated October 9, 2026, counted nightly

What 7,196 real mock drafts on our simulator did. Tap your team for its fans' picks.

First round Draft odds Still there?Most sought-after Team by team Fans vs board Be a GM

The fans' first round

What fans took at each pick, one player per pick. Sims: how often our simulator puts him there.

Pick	Fans' pick	Fans	Sims	Runner-up
1	Jeremiah Smith WR · Ohio State	72%	11%	Arch Manning QB, 12%
2	Arch Manning QB · Texas	31%	33%	Leonard Moore CB, 11%
3	Leonard Moore CB · Notre Dame	11%	11%	Colin Simmons EDGE, 3%
4	Colin Simmons EDGE · Texas	4%	13%	Ellis Robinson IV CB, 2%
5	Darian Mensah QB · Miami	3%	6%	Dylan Stewart EDGE, 2%
6	Dante Moore QB · Oregon	8%	12%	Drew Mestemaker QB, 5%
7	Trevor Goosby OT · Texas	22%	12%	KJ Bolden S, 9%
8	Dylan Stewart EDGE · South Carolina	12%	7%	David Stone DL, 11%
9	Julian Sayin QB · Ohio State	12%	9%	David Stone DL, 10%
10	David Stone DL · Oklahoma	20%	12%	Ellis Robinson IV CB, 14%
11	A'Mauri Washington DL1T · Oregon	25%	2%	Ellis Robinson IV CB, 11%
12	Ellis Robinson IV CB · Georgia	27%	15%	KJ Bolden S, 10%
13	KJ Bolden S · Georgia	8%	5%	Ryan Coleman-Williams WR, 5%
14	CJ Carr QB · Notre Dame	7%	3%	Will Echoles DL3T, 7%
15	Drew Mestemaker QB · Oklahoma State	7%	—	Tae Johnson S, 4%
16	WE William Echoles DL3T	7%	3%	Carter Smith OT, 2%
17	Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE · Oregon	6%	2%	Tae Johnson S, 6%
18	Jadan Baugh RB · Florida	20%	4%	Tae Johnson S, 9%
19	Ashton Hampton CB · Clemson	23%	4%	Cayden Green OT, 18%
20	Tae Johnson S · Notre Dame	24%	8%	Will Echoles DL3T, 9%
21	Will Echoles DL3T · Ole Miss	12%	2%	Trinidad Chambliss QB, 10%
22	Cayden Green OT · Missouri	10%	4%	Ryan Coleman-Williams WR, 5%
23	Trey'Dez Green TE · LSU	45%	9%	Jamari Johnson TE, 13%
24	Ian Moore OT · Ohio State	10%	—	Kelley Jones CB, 8%
25	Carter Smith OT · Indiana	11%	4%	Charlie Becker WR, 9%
26	Kewan Lacy RB · Ole Miss	6%	3%	LaNorris Sellers QB, 4%
27	Nick Marsh WR · Indiana	12%	5%	Kelley Jones CB, 10%
28	Zabien Brown CB · Alabama	10%	3%	Trevor Lauck OT, 10%
29	LaNorris Sellers QB · South Carolina	2%	—	Charlie Becker WR, 2%
30	Kade Pieper OG · Iowa	10%	—	Kelley Jones CB, 4%
31	Austin Siereveld OT · Ohio State	13%	2%	Charlie Becker WR, 8%
32	Ryan Coleman-Williams WR · Alabama	21%	3%	Charlie Becker WR, 7%

Draft odds

From 7,196 simulated drafts: the pick where half have taken him, and how often he goes top 5, top 10, round one.

Player	Over/under	Top 5	Top 10	Round 1
Arch Manning QB · Texas	1.2	98%	99%	99%
Leonard Moore CB · Notre Dame	3.8	80%	>99%	>99%
Dante Moore QB · Oregon	2.8	75%	96%	98%
Jeremiah Smith WR · Ohio State	4.2	68%	99%	>99%
Colin Simmons EDGE · Texas	5.1	48%	92%	98%
Darian Mensah QB · Miami	8.2	30%	59%	90%
Trevor Goosby OT · Texas	7.7	26%	73%	95%
Jordan Seaton OT · LSU	8.6	26%	64%	97%
Dylan Stewart EDGE · South Carolina	8.7	21%	61%	96%
Julian Sayin QB · Ohio State	13.0	5%	35%	86%
Ellis Robinson IV CB · Georgia	11.7	4%	27%	96%
Cam Coleman WR · Texas	9.3	4%	60%	97%
David Stone DL · Oklahoma	18.5	2%	29%	64%
CJ Carr QB · Notre Dame	25.5	2%	9%	55%
Drew Mestemaker QB · Oklahoma State	—	1%	32%	33%
A'Mauri Washington DL · Oregon	—	1%	7%	44%
LaNorris Sellers QB · South Carolina	70.8	1%	5%	9%
Kelley Jones CB · Mississippi State	22.1	1%	3%	90%
Cayden Green OT · Missouri	25.3	--	--	85%
Carter Smith OT · Indiana	32.8	--	--	47%
Trinidad Chambliss QB · Ole Miss	67.5	--	2%	3%
WE William Echoles DL3T	32.2	--	--	50%
Zabien Brown CB · Alabama	37.0	--	--	36%
Austin Siereveld OT · Ohio State	—	--	--	5%
KJ Bolden S · Georgia	17.9	--	3%	96%
Jadan Baugh RB · Florida	28.4	--	1%	66%
Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE · Oregon	32.2	--	--	49%
Kewan Lacy RB · Ole Miss	36.3	--	--	29%
Trevor Lauck OT · Iowa	39.4	--	--	28%
Charlie Becker WR · Indiana	29.4	--	1%	60%

Will he still be there?

The chance each is still on the board at that pick. Green: likely. Amber: a coin flip. Red: gone.

Player	#5	#10	#15	#20	#25	#32
Jeremiah Smith WR · Ohio State	54%	6%	--	--	--	--
Arch Manning QB · Texas	11%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%
Leonard Moore CB · Notre Dame	44%	1%	--	--	--	--
Colin Simmons EDGE · Texas	57%	12%	2%	2%	2%	2%
Darian Mensah QB · Miami	76%	45%	24%	10%	10%	10%
Dante Moore QB · Oregon	35%	4%	2%	2%	2%	2%
Trevor Goosby OT · Texas	79%	36%	5%	5%	5%	5%
Dylan Stewart EDGE · South Carolina	82%	45%	14%	4%	4%	4%
Julian Sayin QB · Ohio State	97%	70%	42%	19%	14%	14%
David Stone DL3T · Oklahoma	98%	83%	63%	49%	39%	36%
A'Mauri Washington DL1T · Oregon	>99%	95%	78%	58%	56%	56%
Ellis Robinson IV CB · Georgia	97%	80%	20%	4%	4%	4%
KJ Bolden S · Georgia	>99%	98%	80%	41%	14%	4%
CJ Carr QB · Notre Dame	>99%	92%	82%	66%	54%	45%
Drew Mestemaker QB · Oklahoma State	>99%	71%	67%	67%	67%	67%
WE William Echoles	>99%	>99%	>99%	84%	64%	50%
Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE · Oregon	>99%	>99%	>99%	94%	82%	58%
Jadan Baugh RB · Florida	>99%	>99%	91%	73%	61%	38%
Ashton Hampton CB · Clemson	>99%	>99%	95%	82%	65%	50%
Tae Johnson S · Notre Dame	>99%	>99%	99%	81%	45%	11%
Will Echoles DL3T · Ole Miss	>99%	>99%	>99%	97%	83%	74%
Cayden Green OT · Missouri	>99%	>99%	95%	80%	59%	19%
Trey'Dez Green TE · LSU	>99%	>99%	99%	91%	65%	33%
Ian Moore OT · Ohio State	>99%	>99%	>99%	>99%	>99%	98%
Carter Smith OT · Indiana	>99%	>99%	99%	93%	82%	57%
Kewan Lacy RB · Ole Miss	>99%	>99%	>99%	>99%	96%	76%
Nick Marsh WR · Indiana	>99%	>99%	>99%	98%	86%	54%
Zabien Brown CB · Alabama	>99%	>99%	>99%	96%	83%	66%
LaNorris Sellers QB · South Carolina	>99%	96%	94%	93%	91%	91%
Kade Pieper OG · Iowa	>99%	>99%	>99%	>99%	>99%	96%
Austin Siereveld OG · Ohio State	>99%	>99%	>99%	>99%	>99%	95%
Ryan Coleman-Williams WR · Alabama	>99%	>99%	>99%	96%	88%	71%

Most sought-after, round by round

Teams: fanbases that take him often. Top spot: the fanbase that wants him most.

Round 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7

Player	Teams	Top spot	Range
Ellis Robinson IV CB · Georgia	6	27%	#4–#12
Charlie Becker WR · Indiana	5	9%	#11–#32
CJ Carr QB · Notre Dame	4	9%	#2–#14
Tae Johnson S · Notre Dame	3	24%	#8–#20
David Stone DL · Oklahoma	3	20%	#2–#10
Jamari Johnson TE · Oregon	3	14%	#11–#32
Will Echoles DL3T · Ole Miss	3	12%	#6–#21
KJ Bolden S · Georgia	3	10%	#7–#13
Trevor Lauck OT · Iowa	3	10%	#11–#32
Kelley Jones CB · Mississippi State	3	10%	#15–#32
Arch Manning QB · Texas	2	31%	#1–#2
Ryan Coleman-Williams WR · Alabama	2	21%	#6–#32

Player	Teams	Top spot
Trinidad Chambliss QB · Ole Miss	6	28%
Ryan Coleman-Williams WR · Alabama	7	10%
Koi Perich S · Oregon	8	19%
Trevor Lauck OT · Iowa	6	14%
Kewan Lacy RB · Ole Miss	5	20%
Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE · Ohio State	4	12%
Chris Cole LB · Georgia	6	20%
Sammy Brown LB · Clemson	3	29%
Ahmad Hardy RB · Missouri	6	10%
Omarion Miller WR · Arizona State	3	7%
KJ Duff WR · Rutgers	4	13%
Kade Pieper IOL · Iowa	4	14%

Player	Teams	Top spot
KJ Duff WR · Rutgers	7	11%
Jelani McDonald S · Texas	6	16%
Nate Frazier RB · Georgia	6	28%
Ryan Wingo WR · Texas	5	11%
Princewill Umanmielen EDGE · LSU	3	15%
Ty Benefield S · LSU	2	15%
Clev Lubin EDGE · Louisville	3	22%
Jordan Ross EDGE · LSU	2	15%
Koi Perich S · Oregon	4	10%
Yhonzae Pierre EDGE · Alabama	3	9%
Terrance Carter Jr TE · Texas Tech	3	7%
Will Heldt EDGE · Clemson	5	7%

Player	Teams	Top spot
Jyaire Hill CB · Michigan	5	10%
Mark Fletcher Jr RB · Miami	4	12%
Nyck Harbor WR · South Carolina	4	11%
Ben Roberts ILB · Texas Tech	6	8%
Bear Alexander DL · Oregon	4	10%
Peter Clarke TE · Temple	3	15%
Jaylen McClain S · Ohio State	3	11%
Luke Montgomery OG · Ohio State	3	6%
Marquise Lightfoot IDL · Miami	3	8%
Whit Weeks LB · LSU	1	7%
Benjamin Brahmer TE · Penn State	1	12%
Corey Myrick S · Clemson	2	6%

Player	Teams	Top spot
Blake Frazier OT · Michigan	5	16%
Keon Sabb S · Alabama	2	20%
Justin Evans OC · Nebraska	3	20%
Jermaine Mathews Jr CB · Ohio State	3	14%
Christian Gray CB · Notre Dame	1	21%
Andrew Rappleyea TE · Penn State	2	16%
Peter Clarke TE · Temple	3	10%
John Nestor CB · Minnesota	1	27%
Niki Prongos OT · Stanford	3	10%
Evan Johnson CB · BYU	2	12%
Kip Lewis OLB · Oklahoma	1	12%
Lawson Luckie TE · Georgia	1	16%

Player	Teams	Top spot
Raleek Brown RB · Texas	5	11%
Rod Moore S · Michigan	3	10%
Raylen Wilson ILB · Georgia	2	14%
DJ McKinney CB · Notre Dame	2	5%
Darius Taylor RB · Minnesota	3	11%
Dom Nichols EDGE · Michigan	2	9%
CJ Fite DL3T · Arizona State	2	15%
McKale Boley OG · Virginia	2	11%
Alani Noa OG · USC	3	10%
Anthony Donkoh OG · Penn State	3	13%
Brett Norfleet TE	1	9%
Howard Sampson OT · Texas Tech	4	8%

Player	Teams	Top spot
Drew Evans OG · Indiana	7	10%
Earl Little Jr S · Ohio State	4	10%
Dom Nichols EDGE · Michigan	5	7%
Dominick McKinley DL3T · LSU	2	16%
Tyree Adams OT · Texas A&M	2	14%
Shadre Hurst OG · Houston	3	10%
Anthony Donkoh OG · Penn State	3	6%
James Smith DL3T · Ohio State	3	9%
Samuel Omosigho ILB · UCLA	3	5%
Luke Reynolds TE · Virginia Tech	1	9%
TJ Searcy EDGE · Texas A&M	2	10%
Amare Campbell ILB · Tennessee	2	7%

Team by team: what each fanbase drafts

Each fanbase's own drafts: positions against the sims, the players, and the chance each is there.

Texans134 fan drafts

At #1

WR 72% sims 11%QB 17% sims 44%EDGE 7% sims 30%

Jeremiah Smith WR72%100% there

Arch Manning QB12%100% there

Colin Simmons EDGE3%100% there

Dylan Stewart EDGE3%100% there

QP2027 QB Prospect 10 QB3%100% there

Round 2 favorites

Kewan Lacy RB7%

Jadan Baugh RB6%

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR5%

Round 3 favorites

Nate Frazier RB7%

Iapani Laloulu IOL5%

Iapani Laloulu OC4%

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Titans289 fan drafts

At #2

WR 78% sims 8%CB 7% sims 16%RB 6% sims 0%QB 4% sims 64%

Jeremiah Smith WR78%89% there

Leonard Moore CB7%98% there

Kewan Lacy RB6%100% there

Dante Moore QB4%99% there

Colin Simmons EDGE4%78% there

Round 2 favorites

Kewan Lacy RB16%

Trevor Lauck OT11%

Jadan Baugh RB9%

Round 3 favorites

Will Heldt EDGE4%

Nate Frazier RB4%

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE4%

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Chargers203 fan drafts

At #3

QB 46% sims 51%WR 31% sims 12%CB 23% sims 12%

Darian Mensah QB46%99% there

Jeremiah Smith WR31%81% there

Leonard Moore CB23%83% there

Round 2 favorites

Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE7%

Zabien Brown CB6%

Justin Scott DL3T6%

Round 3 favorites

Koi Perich S4%

Will Heldt EDGE4%

Quincy Rhodes Jr EDGE4%

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Dolphins381 fan drafts

At #4

WR 36% sims 16%EDGE 36% sims 20%QB 27% sims 23%

Jeremiah Smith WR36%69% there

Colin Simmons EDGE36%70% there

Darian Mensah QB9%83% there

Dante Moore QB9%45% there

Arch Manning QB9%15% there

Round 2 favorites

Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE10%

Trinidad Chambliss QB9%

Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE6%

Round 3 favorites

KJ Duff WR6%

Koi Perich S5%

Jelani McDonald S5%

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Buccaneers113 fan drafts

At #5

EDGE 50% sims 8%CB 25% sims 25%WR 25% sims 25%

Colin Simmons EDGE50%57% there

Leonard Moore CB25%44% there

Jeremiah Smith WR25%54% there

Round 2 favorites

Jadan Baugh RB8%

Ahmad Moten Sr DL3T5%

Trinidad Chambliss QB4%

Round 3 favorites

KJ Duff WR6%

ETEvan Tengeshdahl IOL4%

Iapani Laloulu OC4%

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Jets477 fan drafts

At #6

WR 44% sims 27%QB 22% sims 28%CB 22% sims 12%EDGE 8% sims 19%

Jeremiah Smith WR42%32% there

Leonard Moore CB20%20% there

Dante Moore QB8%25% there

Colin Simmons EDGE7%52% there

Drew Mestemaker QB5%99% there

At #10

QB 31% sims 14%DL 23% sims 13%CB 16% sims 9%EDGE 14% sims 11%

David Stone DL20%83% there

Darian Mensah QB16%45% there

Ellis Robinson IV CB14%80% there

Colin Simmons EDGE7%12% there

Dylan Stewart EDGE6%45% there

At #12

CB 28% sims 18%QB 23% sims 7%DL 18% sims 4%S 11% sims 3%

Ellis Robinson IV CB27%60% there

KJ Bolden S10%93% there

CJ Carr QB9%88% there

David Stone DL8%67% there

Dylan Stewart EDGE7%31% there

Round 2 favorites

Sammy Brown LB11%

Chris Cole LB7%

Trinidad Chambliss QB6%

Round 3 favorites

Jelani McDonald S8%

KJ Duff WR5%

Boubacar Traore EDGE4%

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Commanders227 fan drafts

At #7

WR 52% sims 18%EDGE 23% sims 15%CB 10% sims 8%OT 10% sims 22%

Cam Coleman WR45%85% there

Dylan Stewart EDGE16%75% there

Leonard Moore CB10%10% there

Jordan Seaton OT6%72% there

Colin Simmons EDGE6%37% there

Round 2 favorites

Ahmad Hardy RB8%

Kewan Lacy RB7%

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR6%

Round 3 favorites

Koi Perich S6%

KJ Duff WR5%

Jelani McDonald S4%

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Saints125 fan drafts

At #8

OT 50% sims 14%EDGE 25% sims 14%WR 25% sims 14%

Trevor Goosby OT50%56% there

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR25%100% there

Dylan Stewart EDGE25%67% there

Round 2 favorites

Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE6%

Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE5%

Austin Siereveld OT5%

Round 3 favorites

KJ Duff WR6%

Yhonzae Pierre EDGE4%

Jamari Sharpe CB4%

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Cardinals136 fan drafts

At #9

EDGE 37% sims 25%OT 32% sims 22%QB 21% sims 26%S 5% sims 0%

Dylan Stewart EDGE26%60% there

Jordan Seaton OT21%56% there

Darian Mensah QB10%52% there

Trevor Goosby OT10%48% there

Colin Simmons EDGE10%23% there

Round 2 favorites

Trinidad Chambliss QB9%

Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE8%

Trevor Lauck OT6%

Round 3 favorites

Ryan Wingo WR6%

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE5%

Bray Hubbard S4%

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Bengals167 fan drafts

At #11

OT 44% sims 13%RB 33% sims 3%QB 11% sims 19%EDGE 11% sims 12%

Jordan Seaton OT33%36% there

Jadan Baugh RB22%99% there

PJ Williams OT11%100% there

Sam Leavitt QB11%100% there

Dylan Stewart EDGE11%39% there

Round 2 favorites

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB6%

Chris Cole OLB5%

Sammy Brown LB4%

Round 3 favorites

Nate Frazier RB6%

Clev Lubin EDGE4%

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE4%

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Steelers247 fan drafts

At #13

QB 36% sims 8%WR 29% sims 6%CB 13% sims 19%RB 6% sims 1%

Trinidad Chambliss QB19%98% there

Cam Coleman WR13%26% there

Charlie Becker WR13%98% there

Julian Sayin QB10%54% there

Ashton Hampton CB6%99% there

Round 2 favorites

Trinidad Chambliss QB8%

Chris Cole LB5%

Ahmad Hardy RB4%

Round 3 favorites

KJ Duff WR6%

Nate Frazier RB5%

Ryan Wingo WR4%

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Eagles166 fan drafts

At #14

TE 50% sims 3%WR 50% sims 7%

Jamari Johnson TE50%95% there

Charlie Becker WR50%97% there

Round 2 favorites

Greg Johnson IOL5%

Koi Perich S5%

Melvin Siani OT4%

Round 3 favorites

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE5%

Nate Frazier RB5%

Terrance Carter Jr TE4%

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Cowboys304 fan drafts

At #15

CB 25% sims 18%OT 17% sims 4%EDGE 17% sims 5%LB 8% sims 0%

Dylan Stewart EDGE17%14% there

Ellis Robinson IV CB17%20% there

A'Mauri Washington DL8%78% there

KJ Bolden S8%80% there

Jamari Johnson TE8%92% there

Round 2 favorites

Sammy Brown LB9%

Chris Cole LB5%

Trevor Lauck OT4%

Round 3 favorites

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE5%

Ryan Wingo WR4%

Jamari Sharpe CB3%

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Lions358 fan drafts

At #16

CB 40% sims 10%EDGE 27% sims 5%WR 13% sims 6%DL 7% sims 9%

Dylan Stewart EDGE20%9% there

Ellis Robinson IV CB20%11% there

Cam Coleman WR13%11% there

Ashton Hampton CB13%92% there

Tae Johnson S7%97% there

Round 2 favorites

Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE6%

Quincy Rhodes Jr EDGE6%

Koi Perich S4%

Round 3 favorites

Ty Benefield S7%

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE4%

Jackson Bennee S4%

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Falcons258 fan drafts

At #17

WR 29% sims 10%OT 18% sims 5%QB 12% sims 5%DL 12% sims 7%

Cayden Green OT18%89% there

Cam Coleman WR18%8% there

Will Echoles DL3T12%100% there

Jadan Baugh RB12%86% there

Charlie Becker WR12%91% there

Round 2 favorites

Trinidad Chambliss QB11%

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR8%

Trevor Lauck OT8%

Round 3 favorites

Ryan Wingo WR6%

KJ Duff WR5%

Brice Pollock CB5%

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Broncos76 fan drafts

At #18

TE 22% sims 11%RB 22% sims 4%WR 22% sims 9%DL 11% sims 8%

Jamari Johnson TE22%71% there

Jadan Baugh RB22%82% there

Charlie Becker WR11%86% there

Carter Smith OT11%95% there

Will Echoles DL3T11%100% there

Round 2 favorites

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB10%

Sammy Brown LB9%

Kewan Lacy RB5%

Round 3 favorites

KJ Duff WR5%

Terrance Carter Jr TE5%

Jayden Jackson DL1T5%

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Panthers86 fan drafts

At #19

CB 23% sims 13%S 18% sims 15%TE 18% sims 8%OT 18% sims 6%

Ashton Hampton CB23%86% there

Cayden Green OT18%83% there

KJ Bolden S18%49% there

Jadan Baugh RB14%78% there

Jamari Johnson TE14%63% there

Round 2 favorites

Greg Johnson IOL10%

Chris Cole LB7%

Sammy Brown LB6%

Round 3 favorites

Jacarrius Peak OT4%

Terrance Carter Jr TE4%

Ryan Wingo WR3%

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Patriots264 fan drafts

At #20

WR 33% sims 7%TE 31% sims 10%S 29% sims 18%DL 5% sims 6%

Charlie Becker WR33%80% there

Jamari Johnson TE24%57% there

Tae Johnson S17%81% there

KJ Bolden S12%41% there

Trey'Dez Green TE7%91% there

Round 2 favorites

Koi Perich S10%

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB10%

Chris Cole LB10%

Round 3 favorites

KJ Duff WR8%

Clev Lubin EDGE6%

Ty Benefield S5%

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Browns350 fan drafts

At #21

DL 34% sims 7%QB 31% sims 2%CB 14% sims 14%WR 9% sims 9%

David Stone DL3T14%47% there

CJ Carr QB12%64% there

Will Echoles DL3T12%95% there

Ashton Hampton CB12%79% there

Trinidad Chambliss QB10%98% there

At #26

QB 28% sims 3%OT 14% sims 10%TE 9% sims 8%EDGE 9% sims 3%

Trinidad Chambliss QB19%98% there

Cayden Green OT12%52% there

Trey'Dez Green TE7%60% there

David Stone DL3T7%36% there

Nick Marsh WR5%82% there

Round 2 favorites

Trinidad Chambliss QB7%

Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE6%

Zabien Brown CB5%

Round 3 favorites

Terrance Carter Jr TE5%

KJ Duff WR4%

Ryan Wingo WR4%

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Ravens129 fan drafts

At #23

CB 24% sims 11%WR 18% sims 8%DL 12% sims 7%RB 12% sims 4%

Ashton Hampton CB24%72% there

Kewan Lacy RB12%98% there

Cayden Green OT12%68% there

Trey'Dez Green TE12%81% there

Greg Johnson OG6%100% there

Round 2 favorites

KJ Duff WR6%

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR6%

Kewan Lacy RB4%

Round 3 favorites

Nate Frazier RB7%

Terrance Carter Jr TE4%

Boubacar Traore EDGE4%

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Giants254 fan drafts

At #24

DL 50% sims 5%WR 33% sims 8%RB 17% sims 2%

Will Echoles DL3T17%86% there

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR17%90% there

Nick Marsh WR17%88% there

WEWilliam Echoles DL3T17%69% there

Kewan Lacy RB17%96% there

Round 2 favorites

Kade Pieper IOL9%

Ahmad Moten Sr DL3T8%

Omarion Miller WR7%

Round 3 favorites

Jelani McDonald S6%

KJ Duff WR5%

Ryan Wingo WR4%

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Bills467 fan drafts

At #25

OT 60% sims 14%WR 17% sims 8%IOL 11% sims 0%

Cayden Green OT26%59% there

Carter Smith OT11%82% there

Ian Moore OT11%100% there

Charlie Becker WR9%64% there

Trevor Lauck OT9%92% there

Round 2 favorites

Koi Perich S7%

Ryan Wingo WR6%

KJ Duff WR5%

Round 3 favorites

Suntarine Perkins OLB5%

Nyck Harbor WR4%

Luke Montgomery OG4%

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Raiders178 fan drafts

At #27

WR 59% sims 11%S 19% sims 10%DL 9% sims 4%OT 6% sims 10%

Nick Marsh WR38%80% there

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR12%84% there

KJ Bolden S12%9% there

Charlie Becker WR9%59% there

Tae Johnson S6%33% there

Round 2 favorites

Koi Perich S10%

Omarion Miller WR7%

KJ Duff WR6%

Round 3 favorites

Jayden Jackson DL1T7%

Jelani McDonald S4%

Jordan Ross EDGE4%

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Bears308 fan drafts

At #28

EDGE 32% sims 6%DL 29% sims 5%CB 13% sims 12%S 9% sims 5%

Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE29%73% there

Kelley Jones CB10%27% there

Will Echoles DL3T10%74% there

David Stone DL3T10%36% there

Tae Johnson S6%26% there

Round 2 favorites

Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE8%

Quincy Rhodes Jr EDGE7%

Will Heldt EDGE7%

Round 3 favorites

Brice Pollock CB4%

Will Heldt EDGE4%

KJ Duff WR4%

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Seahawks85 fan drafts

At #29

RB 27% sims 6%WR 18% sims 8%EDGE 18% sims 8%S 9% sims 3%

Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE18%68% there

Nick Marsh WR18%70% there

Kewan Lacy RB18%88% there

Jadan Baugh RB9%51% there

Trey'Dez Green TE9%46% there

Round 2 favorites

Will Heldt EDGE7%

Greg Johnson IOL6%

Jordan Ross EDGE6%

Round 3 favorites

Bryant Wesco Jr WR6%

Will Heldt EDGE4%

Sam Leavitt QB4%

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Chiefs229 fan drafts

At #30

OT 50% sims 10%WR 30% sims 20%EDGE 10% sims 4%TE 10% sims 3%

Cayden Green OT40%30% there

Charlie Becker WR10%52% there

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR10%77% there

Nick Marsh WR10%66% there

Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE10%63% there

Round 2 favorites

KJ Duff WR13%

Melvin Siani OT7%

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa ILB5%

Round 3 favorites

Terrance Carter Jr TE5%

Suntarine Perkins OLB4%

Jelani McDonald S4%

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Vikings536 fan drafts

At #31

QB 33% sims 0%RB 33% sims 13%S 14% sims 3%TE 6% sims 4%

Jadan Baugh RB19%44% there

Kewan Lacy RB14%81% there

CJ Carr QB11%45% there

Drew Mestemaker QB11%67% there

LaNorris Sellers QB6%91% there

Round 2 favorites

Trinidad Chambliss QB11%

Koi Perich S8%

CJ Carr QB7%

Round 3 favorites

Nate Frazier RB7%

Clev Lubin EDGE5%

Jordan Ross EDGE4%

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49ers313 fan drafts

At #32

WR 38% sims 11%OT 18% sims 12%RB 16% sims 11%DL 9% sims 2%

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR21%71% there

Kewan Lacy RB9%76% there

Charlie Becker WR7%44% there

Nick Marsh WR7%54% there

Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE7%58% there

Round 2 favorites

Koi Perich S5%

Yhonzae Pierre EDGE5%

Melvin Siani OT4%

Round 3 favorites

Terrance Carter Jr TE4%

Jelani McDonald S4%

Clev Lubin EDGE4%

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Packers169 fan drafts

Round 2 favorites

Kewan Lacy RB12%

Ahmad Hardy RB10%

Greg Johnson IOL6%

Round 3 favorites

Nate Frazier RB7%

TLTrevor Lauch OT5%

Vicari Swain CB4%

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Colts79 fan drafts

Round 2 favorites

Trinidad Chambliss QB10%

Omarion Miller WR7%

Drew Mestemaker QB7%

Round 3 favorites

KJ Duff WR9%

Jelani McDonald S7%

Boubacar Traore EDGE6%

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Jaguars22 fan drafts

Round 2 favorites

Greg Johnson IOL14%

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB10%

ETEvan Tengeshdahl IOL10%

Round 3 favorites

Whit Weeks LB20%

PJ Williams OT10%

Chris Peal CB10%

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Rams66 fan drafts

Round 2 favorites

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR11%

Quincy Rhodes Jr EDGE9%

Omarion Miller WR7%

Round 3 favorites

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE18%

KJ Duff WR9%

Jelani McDonald S9%

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Where fans draft him vs the expert board

ADP: the average fan pick. Board: the expert rank. The line is his ADP by week; green is rising.

ADP	Player	Board	Fans vs board
1.7	Arch Manning QB · Texas	#2	agrees
3.5	Jeremiah Smith WR · Ohio State	#1	2 lower
4.6	Leonard Moore CB · Notre Dame	#3	2 lower
6.7	Colin Simmons EDGE · Texas	#4	3 lower
6.7	Dante Moore QB · Oregon	#6	agrees
9.1	Darian Mensah QB · Miami	#15	6 higher
10.2	Jordan Seaton OT · LSU	#9	1 lower
11.1	Cam Coleman WR · Texas	#7	4 lower
11.2	Trevor Goosby OT · Texas	#8	3 lower
12.0	Dylan Stewart EDGE · South Carolina	#5	7 lower
12.1	David Stone DL · Oklahoma	#10	2 lower
12.3	Ellis Robinson IV CB · Georgia	#11	1 lower
12.9	A'Mauri Washington DL1T · Oregon	#11	2 lower
14.1	A'Mauri Washington DL · Oregon	#12	2 lower
16.4	Julian Sayin QB · Ohio State	#14	2 lower
19.0	Jamari Johnson TE · Oregon	#16	3 lower
21.1	Will Echoles DL3T · Ole Miss	#19	2 lower
21.7	KJ Bolden S · Georgia	#13	9 lower
21.9	David Stone DL3T · Oklahoma	#16	6 lower
22.4	WE William Echoles DL3T	#20	2 lower
23.4	Jadan Baugh RB · Florida	#24	agrees
24.2	Charlie Becker WR · Indiana	#23	1 lower
24.9	Kelley Jones CB · Mississippi State	#25	agrees
25.3	Drew Mestemaker QB · Oklahoma State	#35	10 higher
25.8	Ashton Hampton CB · Clemson	#42	16 higher
26.1	Cayden Green OT · Missouri	#22	4 lower
26.3	Tae Johnson S · Notre Dame	#17	9 lower
31.1	Kewan Lacy RB · Ole Miss	#29	2 lower
31.6	Trey'Dez Green TE · LSU	#19	13 lower
32.0	Kade Pieper OG · Iowa	#31	1 lower
32.4	Ian Moore OT · Ohio State	#27	5 lower
33.3	Nick Marsh WR · Indiana	#21	12 lower
33.7	Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE · Oregon	#28	6 lower
35.3	Ryan Coleman-Williams WR · Alabama	#26	9 lower
37.1	Austin Siereveld OT · Ohio State	#36	1 lower
39.9	Trevor Lauck OT · Iowa	#33	7 lower
39.9	Justin Scott DL3T · Miami	#38	2 lower
40.2	Trinidad Chambliss QB · Ole Miss	#50	10 higher
40.3	CJ Carr QB · Notre Dame	#18	22 lower
40.8	Sammy Brown LB · Clemson	#37	4 lower
41.4	Sammy Brown ILB · Clemson	#35	6 lower
41.5	Ahmad Moten Sr DL3T · Miami	#32	10 lower
42.1	Carter Smith OT · Indiana	#27	15 lower
43.0	Ahmad Hardy RB · Missouri	#39	4 lower
45.2	Kade Pieper IOL · Iowa	#43	2 lower
46.2	Greg Johnson OG · Minnesota	#47	agrees
47.2	Chris Cole LB · Georgia	#41	6 lower
47.8	Damon Wilson II EDGE · Miami	#38	10 lower
49.1	Chris Cole OLB · Georgia	#44	5 lower
50.4	Zabien Brown CB · Alabama	#30	20 lower
50.4	Jesse Perry IOL · Tennessee	#47	3 lower
51.6	Austin Siereveld OG · Ohio State	#48	4 lower
52.6	Greg Johnson IOL · Minnesota	#53	agrees
53.4	Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE · Ohio State	#40	13 lower
55.0	Omarion Miller WR · Arizona State	#34	21 lower
56.2	LaNorris Sellers QB · South Carolina	#31	25 lower
57.5	Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB · Notre Dame	#47	10 lower
57.6	Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa ILB · Notre Dame	#49	9 lower
58.9	Melvin Siani OT · Texas	#51	8 lower
59.8	Damon Wilson Jr EDGE · Miami	#45	15 lower
60.1	Will Heldt EDGE · Clemson	#59	1 lower
60.2	AJ Holmes Jr DL · Texas Tech	#46	14 lower
63.8	Rasheem Biles LB · Texas	#56	8 lower
64.0	Katin Houser QB · Illinois	#465	401 higher
65.0	Iapani Laloulu IOL · Oregon	#66	1 higher
65.2	Koi Perich S · Oregon	#54	11 lower
65.6	Jacarrius Peak OT · South Carolina	#52	14 lower
66.1	ET Evan Tengeshdahl IOL	#61	5 lower
66.5	AJ Holmes Jr DL3T · Texas Tech	#60	6 lower
66.6	Yhonzae Pierre EDGE · Alabama	#60	7 lower
67.5	Rasheem Biles OLB · Texas	#60	8 lower
68.3	KJ Duff WR · Rutgers	#55	13 lower
69.0	OJ Frederique Jr CB · Miami	#57	12 lower
70.9	Ryan Wingo WR · Texas	#62	9 lower
71.6	Mario Craver WRS · Texas A&M	#49	23 lower
72.0	Jayden Maiava QB · USC	#48	24 lower
75.7	Jordan Ross EDGE · LSU	#74	2 lower
76.0	Mario Craver WR · Texas A&M	#49	27 lower
76.4	Iapani Laloulu OC · Oregon	#77	agrees
76.9	TL Trevor Lauch OT	#73	4 lower
77.2	Jackson Bennee S · Utah	#58	19 lower
77.8	Kingston Lopa S · California	#101	23 higher
78.2	Jelani McDonald S · Texas	#72	6 lower
78.4	TD Tony Diaz WR · NA	#58	20 lower
78.6	Princewill Umanmielen EDGE · LSU	#81	2 higher
79.8	Sam Leavitt QB · LSU	#89	9 higher
79.8	Matthew Jung S · Wisconsin	#468	388 higher
82.4	Ty Benefield S · LSU	#80	2 lower
82.8	Fox Crader OT · NA	#72	11 lower
84.1	Quincy Rhodes Jr EDGE · Arkansas	#44	40 lower
84.3	Jamari Sharpe CB · Indiana	#71	13 lower
84.5	Coen Echols IOL	#84	agrees
84.9	Horace Lockett DL · NA	#79	6 lower
85.5	Nate Frazier RB · Georgia	#75	10 lower
86.2	Clev Lubin EDGE · Louisville	#78	8 lower
88.7	Chris Peal CB · Syracuse	#68	21 lower
88.9	Tavion Gadson DL3T · Kentucky	#81	8 lower
89.1	Anthonie Knapp OT · Notre Dame	#87	2 lower
89.2	Terrance Carter Jr TE · Texas Tech	#79	10 lower
89.4	Boubacar Traore EDGE · Notre Dame	#64	25 lower

Be a GM trends

From 12,515 Be a GM offseasons: $5.9M of cap freed, 1.0 cuts and 1.4 signings a session.

Most cut

Brandon Aiyuk WR · SFsaves $3.5M

Luke Farrell TE · SFcosts $2.5M

Grady Jarrett DT · CHIsaves $12.3M

Dayo Odeyingbo DE · CHIsaves $12.2M

Calvin Ridley WR · TENsaves $14.2M

Dan Moore Jr. T · TENsaves $4.8M

Brandon Stephens CB · NYJsaves $6.6M

Chauncey Golston DE · NYGsaves $2.7M

Most signed in free agency

Joey Bosa EDGE · BUF$12.1M/yr

Tyreek Hill WR · MIA$13.4M/yr

Puka Nacua WR · LAR$30.6M/yr

Joey Porter Jr. CB · PIT$15.2M/yr

Marshon Lattimore CB · WAS$7.2M/yr

Bobby Wagner LB · WAS$4.2M/yr

George Pickens WR · DAL$22.6M/yr

Mekhi Becton OT · LAC$13.1M/yr

Most extended

George Pickens WR · DAL$16.7M/yr

Nick Bosa DE · SF$12.6M/yr

Brian Branch SS · DET$12.1M/yr

Sam LaPorta TE · DET$11.2M/yr

Fred Warner MLB · SF$9.7M/yr

George Kittle TE · SF$4.7M/yr

Christian McCaffrey RB · SF$3.9M/yr

Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF$9.3M/yr

Questions

Who do fans take first overall in 2027 mock drafts?: Jeremiah Smith, in 72% of the fan mock drafts that reached pick one.
Where does this data come from?: Every mock draft run on the StickToTheModel simulator, counted nightly. Fan picks are the picks users made for their own team; the sims are full drafts with all 32 teams drafting.
How is the chance a player is still there worked out?: From the simulated drafts: the share of sims that took him before that pick, taken away from 100.

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