Who do fans take first overall in 2027 mock drafts?

Jeremiah Smith, in 66% of the fan mock drafts that reached pick one.

Where does this data come from?

Every mock draft run on the StickToTheModel simulator, counted nightly. Fan picks are the picks users made for their own team; the sims are full drafts with all 32 teams drafting.

How is the chance a player is still there worked out?

From the simulated drafts: the share of sims that took him before that pick, taken away from 100.

FreeMock Draft Simulator · seven rounds, trades, every pick graded as you make itStart a mock

Mock Draft Simulator / Community

Community Mock Draft 2027

Updated October 9, 2026, counted nightly

What 7,154 real mock drafts on our simulator did. Tap your team for its fans' picks.

First round Draft odds Still there?Most sought-after Team by team Fans vs board Be a GM

The fans' first round

What fans took at each pick, one player per pick. Sims: how often our simulator puts him there.

Pick	Fans' pick	Fans	Sims	Runner-up
1	Jeremiah Smith WR · Ohio State	66%	11%	Arch Manning QB, 18%
2	Arch Manning QB · Texas	30%	38%	Leonard Moore CB, 11%
3	Dante Moore QB · Oregon	17%	28%	Leonard Moore CB, 6%
4	Leonard Moore CB · Notre Dame	7%	25%	Colin Simmons EDGE, 5%
5	Darian Mensah QB · Miami	5%	5%	Julian Sayin QB, 3%
6	Colin Simmons EDGE · Texas	6%	12%	Dylan Stewart EDGE, 3%
7	Cam Coleman WR · Texas	43%	18%	Dylan Stewart EDGE, 20%
8	Dylan Stewart EDGE · South Carolina	12%	8%	Ellis Robinson IV CB, 11%
9	David Stone DL · Oklahoma	12%	4%	Julian Sayin QB, 12%
10	Ellis Robinson IV CB · Georgia	14%	8%	CJ Carr QB, 6%
11	A'Mauri Washington DL1T · Oregon	18%	2%	Julian Sayin QB, 9%
12	KJ Bolden S · Georgia	10%	3%	CJ Carr QB, 9%
13	Julian Sayin QB · Ohio State	12%	4%	Ryan Coleman-Williams WR, 5%
14	CJ Carr QB · Notre Dame	7%	3%	Will Echoles DL3T, 7%
15	Drew Mestemaker QB · Oklahoma State	7%	—	Tae Johnson S, 4%
16	WE William Echoles DL3T	7%	3%	Carter Smith OT, 2%
17	Tae Johnson S · Notre Dame	15%	3%	Will Echoles DL3T, 10%
18	Jadan Baugh RB · Florida	24%	4%	Jamari Johnson TE, 6%
19	Cayden Green OT · Missouri	20%	3%	Ashton Hampton CB, 20%
20	Kelley Jones CB · Mississippi State	8%	5%	Charlie Becker WR, 6%
21	Ashton Hampton CB · Clemson	12%	3%	Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE, 9%
22	Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE · Oregon	14%	3%	Ryan Coleman-Williams WR, 10%
23	Trey'Dez Green TE · LSU	44%	10%	Jamari Johnson TE, 16%
24	Charlie Becker WR · Indiana	7%	3%	Jamari Johnson TE, 4%
25	Carter Smith OT · Indiana	11%	6%	Sammy Brown LB, 5%
26	Kewan Lacy RB · Ole Miss	5%	4%	LaNorris Sellers QB, 5%
27	Nick Marsh WR · Indiana	12%	7%	Jamari Johnson TE, 7%
28	Zabien Brown CB · Alabama	11%	6%	Trevor Lauck OT, 11%
29	LaNorris Sellers QB · South Carolina	2%	2%	Trinidad Chambliss QB, 2%
30	Kade Pieper OG · Iowa	8%	2%	Trinidad Chambliss QB, 6%
31	Austin Siereveld OT · Ohio State	14%	4%	Ryan Coleman-Williams WR, 5%
32	Trinidad Chambliss QB · Ole Miss	10%	—	Jayden Maiava QB, 6%

Draft odds

From 7,154 simulated drafts: the pick where half have taken him, and how often he goes top 5, top 10, round one.

Player	Over/under	Top 5	Top 10	Round 1
Arch Manning QB · Texas	1.3	98%	99%	99%
Leonard Moore CB · Notre Dame	3.9	81%	99%	99%
Dante Moore QB · Oregon	2.9	75%	97%	98%
Jeremiah Smith WR · Ohio State	4.3	64%	99%	>99%
Colin Simmons EDGE · Texas	4.5	53%	92%	98%
Trevor Goosby OT · Texas	7.7	27%	71%	97%
Jordan Seaton OT · LSU	8.8	25%	60%	97%
Dylan Stewart EDGE · South Carolina	8.3	24%	67%	97%
Darian Mensah QB · Miami	9.0	23%	56%	92%
Julian Sayin QB · Ohio State	11.1	6%	42%	87%
Cam Coleman WR · Texas	9.0	4%	62%	97%
Ellis Robinson IV CB · Georgia	11.6	4%	28%	96%
David Stone DL · Oklahoma	14.8	2%	32%	64%
CJ Carr QB · Notre Dame	25.6	2%	9%	54%
A'Mauri Washington DL · Oregon	19.5	1%	5%	51%
Drew Mestemaker QB · Oklahoma State	—	1%	24%	24%
LaNorris Sellers QB · South Carolina	66.2	1%	5%	19%
Kelley Jones CB · Mississippi State	21.6	1%	3%	90%
Cayden Green OT · Missouri	24.6	1%	1%	87%
Carter Smith OT · Indiana	31.0	--	--	54%
Trinidad Chambliss QB · Ole Miss	67.7	--	2%	2%
WE William Echoles DL3T	28.3	--	--	53%
Zabien Brown CB · Alabama	34.4	--	--	44%
Austin Siereveld OT · Ohio State	47.2	--	--	12%
KJ Bolden S · Georgia	17.4	--	3%	95%
Jadan Baugh RB · Florida	29.4	--	1%	62%
Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE · Oregon	31.3	--	--	54%
Kewan Lacy RB · Ole Miss	36.0	--	--	32%
Trevor Lauck OT · Iowa	38.6	--	--	32%
Jamari Johnson TE · Oregon	20.1	--	1%	92%

Will he still be there?

The chance each is still on the board at that pick. Green: likely. Amber: a coin flip. Red: gone.

Player	#5	#10	#15	#20	#25	#32
Jeremiah Smith WR · Ohio State	56%	6%	--	--	--	--
Arch Manning QB · Texas	11%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%
Dante Moore QB · Oregon	36%	4%	2%	2%	2%	2%
Leonard Moore CB · Notre Dame	46%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%
Darian Mensah QB · Miami	82%	50%	26%	10%	8%	8%
Colin Simmons EDGE · Texas	53%	12%	2%	2%	2%	2%
Cam Coleman WR · Texas	98%	51%	14%	3%	3%	3%
Dylan Stewart EDGE · South Carolina	78%	39%	11%	3%	3%	3%
David Stone DL3T · Oklahoma	98%	82%	54%	44%	38%	36%
Ellis Robinson IV CB · Georgia	97%	79%	18%	4%	4%	4%
A'Mauri Washington DL1T · Oregon	>99%	96%	81%	51%	49%	49%
KJ Bolden S · Georgia	>99%	98%	76%	35%	11%	5%
Julian Sayin QB · Ohio State	97%	64%	35%	15%	13%	13%
CJ Carr QB · Notre Dame	>99%	92%	83%	66%	54%	46%
Drew Mestemaker QB · Oklahoma State	>99%	78%	76%	76%	76%	76%
WE William Echoles	>99%	>99%	99%	82%	62%	47%
Tae Johnson S · Notre Dame	>99%	>99%	98%	74%	38%	8%
Jadan Baugh RB · Florida	>99%	>99%	96%	82%	68%	41%
Cayden Green OT · Missouri	>99%	>99%	95%	77%	55%	16%
Kelley Jones CB · Mississippi State	>99%	98%	90%	67%	38%	12%
Ashton Hampton CB · Clemson	>99%	>99%	96%	85%	71%	58%
Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE · Oregon	>99%	>99%	>99%	94%	80%	52%
Trey'Dez Green TE · LSU	>99%	>99%	99%	89%	58%	27%
Charlie Becker WR · Indiana	>99%	>99%	96%	86%	72%	49%
Carter Smith OT · Indiana	>99%	>99%	99%	93%	80%	50%
Kewan Lacy RB · Ole Miss	>99%	>99%	>99%	>99%	96%	72%
Nick Marsh WR · Indiana	>99%	>99%	>99%	94%	80%	47%
Zabien Brown CB · Alabama	>99%	>99%	99%	95%	81%	58%
LaNorris Sellers QB · South Carolina	>99%	96%	94%	90%	84%	81%
Kade Pieper OG · Iowa	>99%	>99%	>99%	>99%	>99%	94%
Austin Siereveld OG · Ohio State	>99%	>99%	>99%	>99%	>99%	89%
Trinidad Chambliss QB · Ole Miss	>99%	98%	98%	98%	98%	98%

Most sought-after, round by round

Teams: fanbases that take him often. Top spot: the fanbase that wants him most.

Round 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7

Player	Teams	Top spot	Range
Jamari Johnson TE · Oregon	4	16%	#11–#32
Ellis Robinson IV CB · Georgia	4	14%	#4–#10
CJ Carr QB · Notre Dame	4	9%	#2–#14
Julian Sayin QB · Ohio State	3	12%	#5–#13
Leonard Moore CB · Notre Dame	3	11%	#1–#4
Will Echoles DL3T · Ole Miss	3	10%	#6–#27
Arch Manning QB · Texas	2	30%	#1–#2
Dylan Stewart EDGE · South Carolina	2	20%	#3–#8
Ashton Hampton CB · Clemson	2	20%	#6–#21
Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE · Oregon	2	14%	#15–#22
Austin Siereveld OT · Ohio State	2	14%	#25–#31
David Stone DL · Oklahoma	2	12%	#2–#9

Player	Teams	Top spot
Trinidad Chambliss QB · Ole Miss	6	29%
Koi Perich S · Oregon	8	23%
Sammy Brown LB · Clemson	3	34%
Ryan Coleman-Williams WR · Alabama	6	9%
Chris Cole LB · Georgia	7	20%
Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE · Ohio State	4	14%
Kewan Lacy RB · Ole Miss	5	19%
Trevor Lauck OT · Iowa	5	13%
Kade Pieper IOL · Iowa	5	15%
Ahmad Hardy RB · Missouri	5	10%
KJ Duff WR · Rutgers	5	11%
Greg Johnson IOL · Minnesota	4	14%

Player	Teams	Top spot
Jelani McDonald S · Texas	8	18%
KJ Duff WR · Rutgers	7	10%
Nate Frazier RB · Georgia	3	25%
Ryan Wingo WR · Texas	4	11%
Princewill Umanmielen EDGE · LSU	2	18%
Ty Benefield S · LSU	3	16%
Jordan Ross EDGE · LSU	2	15%
Clev Lubin EDGE · Louisville	2	22%
Koi Perich S · Oregon	3	9%
Yhonzae Pierre EDGE · Alabama	3	9%
Terrance Carter Jr TE · Texas Tech	3	8%
Will Heldt EDGE · Clemson	5	7%

Player	Teams	Top spot
Peter Clarke TE · Temple	4	16%
Jyaire Hill CB · Michigan	5	10%
Bear Alexander DL · Oregon	4	11%
Ben Roberts ILB · Texas Tech	5	9%
Nyck Harbor WR · South Carolina	4	10%
Mark Fletcher Jr RB · Miami	4	11%
Jaylen McClain S · Ohio State	3	11%
Luke Montgomery OG · Ohio State	3	6%
Whit Weeks LB · LSU	2	7%
Benjamin Brahmer TE · Penn State	1	13%
LJ Martin RB · BYU	3	7%
Earnest Greene III OT · Georgia	2	7%

Player	Teams	Top spot
Blake Frazier OT · Michigan	5	16%
Keon Sabb S · Alabama	3	20%
Jermaine Mathews Jr CB · Ohio State	4	14%
Justin Evans OC · Nebraska	3	20%
Andrew Rappleyea TE · Penn State	2	18%
Christian Gray CB · Notre Dame	2	21%
Evan Johnson CB · BYU	3	13%
Kip Lewis OLB · Oklahoma	3	13%
Niki Prongos OT · Stanford	3	9%
Lawson Luckie TE · Georgia	1	17%
Amare Ferrell S · Indiana	2	12%
Adon Shuler S · Notre Dame	1	12%

Player	Teams	Top spot
Raleek Brown RB · Texas	4	11%
Rod Moore S · Michigan	4	11%
Raylen Wilson ILB · Georgia	2	12%
Darius Taylor RB · Minnesota	4	10%
Dom Nichols EDGE · Michigan	3	9%
CJ Fite DL3T · Arizona State	2	15%
Brett Norfleet TE	2	9%
Samuel Omosigho ILB · UCLA	3	9%
Anthony Donkoh OG · Penn State	3	14%
McKale Boley OG · Virginia	1	12%
DJ McKinney CB · Notre Dame	2	5%
Maraad Watson DL1T · Texas	3	10%

Player	Teams	Top spot
Drew Evans OG · Indiana	5	11%
Dom Nichols EDGE · Michigan	5	8%
Earl Little Jr S · Ohio State	4	10%
Dominick McKinley DL3T · LSU	2	16%
Tyree Adams OT · Texas A&M	2	16%
Shadre Hurst OG · Houston	4	10%
Luke Reynolds TE · Virginia Tech	1	9%
Anthony Donkoh OG · Penn State	3	6%
James Smith DL3T · Ohio State	3	8%
Theo Melin Ohrstrom TE · SMU	1	5%
Darius Taylor RB · Minnesota	0	5%
Samuel Omosigho ILB · UCLA	1	5%

Team by team: what each fanbase drafts

Each fanbase's own drafts: positions against the sims, the players, and the chance each is there.

Texans128 fan drafts

At #1

WR 72% sims 11%QB 17% sims 39%EDGE 8% sims 33%

Jeremiah Smith WR72%100% there

Arch Manning QB11%100% there

Colin Simmons EDGE4%100% there

Dylan Stewart EDGE4%100% there

QP2027 QB Prospect 10 QB4%100% there

Round 2 favorites

Jadan Baugh RB6%

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR5%

Kewan Lacy RB5%

Round 3 favorites

Nate Frazier RB7%

Iapani Laloulu IOL5%

Iapani Laloulu OC4%

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Titans298 fan drafts

At #2

WR 75% sims 9%CB 8% sims 16%RB 6% sims 0%QB 4% sims 64%

Jeremiah Smith WR75%89% there

Leonard Moore CB8%98% there

Kewan Lacy RB6%100% there

Dante Moore QB4%99% there

Colin Simmons EDGE4%76% there

Round 2 favorites

Kewan Lacy RB14%

Trevor Lauck OT10%

Jadan Baugh RB9%

Round 3 favorites

Nate Frazier RB4%

Will Heldt EDGE4%

Trinidad Chambliss QB4%

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Buccaneers110 fan drafts

At #3

WR 78% sims 12%CB 11% sims 11%QB 6% sims 51%IOL 6% sims 0%

Jeremiah Smith WR78%80% there

Leonard Moore CB11%83% there

Arch Manning QB6%24% there

Griffin Empey OG6%100% there

Round 2 favorites

Jadan Baugh RB8%

Greg Johnson IOL5%

Ahmad Moten Sr DL3T5%

Round 3 favorites

KJ Duff WR6%

ETEvan Tengeshdahl IOL4%

Iapani Laloulu OC4%

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Chargers207 fan drafts

At #4

WR 84% sims 14%CB 9% sims 29%EDGE 7% sims 24%

Jeremiah Smith WR84%69% there

Leonard Moore CB7%72% there

Colin Simmons EDGE4%68% there

Round 2 favorites

Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE6%

Zabien Brown CB6%

Justin Scott DL3T6%

Round 3 favorites

John Henry Daley EDGE4%

Koi Perich S4%

Will Heldt EDGE3%

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Dolphins371 fan drafts

At #5

WR 69% sims 23%EDGE 11% sims 9%QB 10% sims 28%CB 9% sims 28%

Jeremiah Smith WR68%56% there

Colin Simmons EDGE9%53% there

Leonard Moore CB9%46% there

Arch Manning QB6%11% there

Round 2 favorites

Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE9%

Trinidad Chambliss QB8%

Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE8%

Round 3 favorites

Jelani McDonald S5%

KJ Duff WR5%

Koi Perich S5%

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Jets473 fan drafts

At #6

WR 47% sims 31%QB 21% sims 27%CB 19% sims 12%EDGE 9% sims 16%

Jeremiah Smith WR45%36% there

Leonard Moore CB17%19% there

Dante Moore QB9%25% there

Colin Simmons EDGE6%47% there

Darian Mensah QB3%77% there

At #11

DL 38% sims 7%QB 16% sims 19%CB 16% sims 15%EDGE 9% sims 11%

A'Mauri Washington DL1T18%95% there

Ellis Robinson IV CB12%72% there

David Stone DL11%68% there

Julian Sayin QB9%58% there

Dylan Stewart EDGE9%33% there

At #12

CB 29% sims 17%QB 25% sims 8%DL 17% sims 10%S 11% sims 3%

Ellis Robinson IV CB28%58% there

KJ Bolden S10%91% there

David Stone DL9%63% there

CJ Carr QB9%88% there

Darian Mensah QB6%38% there

Round 2 favorites

Sammy Brown LB13%

Chris Cole LB8%

Kade Pieper IOL6%

Round 3 favorites

Jelani McDonald S8%

KJ Duff WR4%

Boubacar Traore EDGE4%

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Saints117 fan drafts

At #7

EDGE 33% sims 16%CB 33% sims 8%OT 27% sims 21%WR 7% sims 22%

Leonard Moore CB27%10% there

Trevor Goosby OT20%68% there

Dylan Stewart EDGE13%71% there

Colin Simmons EDGE13%35% there

Jordan Seaton OT7%72% there

Round 2 favorites

Austin Siereveld OT7%

Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE6%

Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE5%

Round 3 favorites

KJ Duff WR5%

Yhonzae Pierre EDGE4%

Ty Benefield S4%

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Commanders227 fan drafts

At #8

WR 61% sims 12%OT 11% sims 14%EDGE 11% sims 14%CB 11% sims 11%

Cam Coleman WR32%67% there

Jeremiah Smith WR29%12% there

David Stone DL7%92% there

Colin Simmons EDGE7%28% there

Trevor Goosby OT7%56% there

Round 2 favorites

Ahmad Hardy RB8%

Kade Pieper IOL7%

Kewan Lacy RB7%

Round 3 favorites

Koi Perich S6%

Jelani McDonald S4%

KJ Duff WR4%

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Cardinals126 fan drafts

At #9

EDGE 29% sims 26%QB 29% sims 28%OT 29% sims 19%RB 7% sims 0%

Dylan Stewart EDGE21%55% there

Jordan Seaton OT21%57% there

Darian Mensah QB14%58% there

Tae Johnson S7%100% there

Kewan Lacy RB7%100% there

Round 2 favorites

Trinidad Chambliss QB8%

Trevor Lauck OT8%

Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE7%

Round 3 favorites

Bray Hubbard S5%

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE5%

TLTrevor Lauch OT4%

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Bengals157 fan drafts

At #10

OT 50% sims 16%EDGE 17% sims 10%CB 17% sims 8%RB 8% sims 1%

Jordan Seaton OT33%49% there

Trevor Goosby OT17%37% there

Colin Simmons EDGE8%12% there

Ashton Hampton CB8%100% there

Ellis Robinson IV CB8%79% there

Round 2 favorites

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB8%

Rasheem Biles LB5%

Sammy Brown LB5%

Round 3 favorites

Nate Frazier RB5%

Clev Lubin EDGE4%

Luke Montgomery OG4%

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Steelers246 fan drafts

At #13

QB 32% sims 9%WR 27% sims 6%CB 14% sims 20%S 9% sims 6%

Trinidad Chambliss QB18%98% there

Charlie Becker WR14%98% there

Cam Coleman WR9%24% there

Julian Sayin QB9%47% there

Ashton Hampton CB9%99% there

Round 2 favorites

Trinidad Chambliss QB9%

Chris Cole LB6%

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB4%

Round 3 favorites

Nate Frazier RB5%

KJ Duff WR5%

Jelani McDonald S4%

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Cowboys295 fan drafts

At #14

DL 39% sims 4%CB 22% sims 14%EDGE 17% sims 3%QB 6% sims 16%

Ellis Robinson IV CB17%27% there

Dylan Stewart EDGE17%15% there

A'Mauri Washington DL11%84% there

A'Mauri Washington DL1T11%84% there

David Stone DL6%55% there

Round 2 favorites

Sammy Brown LB9%

Chris Cole LB6%

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB4%

Round 3 favorites

Jelani McDonald S4%

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE4%

KJ Duff WR4%

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Lions351 fan drafts

At #15

CB 60% sims 16%S 20% sims 10%EDGE 20% sims 4%

Kelley Jones CB27%90% there

Ellis Robinson IV CB13%18% there

Dylan Stewart EDGE13%11% there

Ashton Hampton CB13%96% there

KJ Bolden S13%76% there

Round 2 favorites

Quincy Rhodes Jr EDGE6%

Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE6%

Koi Perich S5%

Round 3 favorites

Ty Benefield S8%

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE4%

John Henry Daley EDGE4%

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Eagles156 fan drafts

At #16

S 17% sims 10%OT 17% sims 15%IOL 17% sims 0%RB 17% sims 3%

KJ Bolden S17%68% there

Cayden Green OT17%93% there

Kade Pieper OG17%100% there

Charlie Becker WR17%95% there

Jadan Baugh RB17%96% there

Round 2 favorites

Koi Perich S7%

Greg Johnson IOL6%

Yhonzae Pierre EDGE4%

Round 3 favorites

Nate Frazier RB5%

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE4%

Terrance Carter Jr TE4%

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Falcons269 fan drafts

At #17

WR 36% sims 8%QB 14% sims 4%OT 14% sims 6%DL 7% sims 10%

Cam Coleman WR21%7% there

Cayden Green OT14%86% there

Charlie Becker WR14%95% there

KJ Bolden S7%61% there

CJ Carr QB7%76% there

Round 2 favorites

Trinidad Chambliss QB11%

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR7%

Trevor Lauck OT7%

Round 3 favorites

Ryan Wingo WR5%

Brice Pollock CB5%

KJ Duff WR4%

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Broncos83 fan drafts

At #18

WR 25% sims 8%TE 25% sims 10%RB 12% sims 4%OT 12% sims 2%

Jamari Johnson TE25%70% there

Charlie Becker WR12%91% there

Carter Smith OT12%95% there

Will Echoles DL3T12%92% there

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa ILB12%100% there

Round 2 favorites

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB10%

Sammy Brown LB9%

Kewan Lacy RB6%

Round 3 favorites

Jayden Jackson DL1T6%

Ty Benefield S6%

Terrance Carter Jr TE6%

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Panthers90 fan drafts

At #19

TE 20% sims 8%OT 20% sims 5%RB 20% sims 4%CB 20% sims 13%

Cayden Green OT20%80% there

KJ Bolden S20%43% there

Ashton Hampton CB20%88% there

Jadan Baugh RB15%86% there

Jamari Johnson TE15%63% there

Round 2 favorites

Chris Cole LB10%

Greg Johnson IOL9%

Ahmad Hardy RB6%

Round 3 favorites

Jelani McDonald S6%

Terrance Carter Jr TE6%

Clev Lubin EDGE4%

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Patriots260 fan drafts

At #20

WR 41% sims 5%TE 28% sims 10%S 22% sims 17%DL 6% sims 9%

Charlie Becker WR41%86% there

Jamari Johnson TE19%57% there

Tae Johnson S16%74% there

Trey'Dez Green TE9%89% there

KJ Bolden S6%35% there

Round 2 favorites

Koi Perich S13%

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB10%

Chris Cole LB10%

Round 3 favorites

KJ Duff WR7%

Clev Lubin EDGE5%

Jelani McDonald S4%

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Browns357 fan drafts

At #21

QB 36% sims 2%DL 36% sims 6%CB 11% sims 16%WR 7% sims 8%

CJ Carr QB13%64% there

David Stone DL3T13%44% there

Will Echoles DL3T13%87% there

Trinidad Chambliss QB13%98% there

Ashton Hampton CB9%83% there

At #26

QB 19% sims 5%OT 16% sims 12%EDGE 12% sims 3%CB 9% sims 9%

Trinidad Chambliss QB16%98% there

Cayden Green OT12%47% there

Nick Marsh WR6%77% there

Tae Johnson S6%34% there

David Stone DL3T6%36% there

Round 2 favorites

Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE6%

Trinidad Chambliss QB6%

Zabien Brown CB4%

Round 3 favorites

Terrance Carter Jr TE5%

Ryan Wingo WR4%

Elijah Green CB4%

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Ravens120 fan drafts

At #23

CB 33% sims 11%WR 22% sims 7%RB 11% sims 4%EDGE 11% sims 2%

Ashton Hampton CB33%77% there

Kewan Lacy RB11%98% there

Greg Johnson OG11%100% there

Dylan Stewart EDGE11%3% there

Ahmad Moten Sr DL3T11%96% there

Round 2 favorites

KJ Duff WR7%

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR5%

Ashton Hampton CB4%

Round 3 favorites

PJ Williams OT5%

Jamari Sharpe CB4%

Nate Frazier RB4%

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Bills469 fan drafts

At #24

OT 39% sims 9%S 15% sims 7%CB 13% sims 11%DL 9% sims 5%

Cayden Green OT18%59% there

Tae Johnson S13%43% there

Ian Moore OT13%100% there

Kelley Jones CB9%43% there

Carter Smith OT6%83% there

Round 2 favorites

Koi Perich S8%

KJ Duff WR6%

Ryan Wingo WR6%

Round 3 favorites

Nyck Harbor WR5%

Suntarine Perkins OLB4%

Luke Montgomery OG4%

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Giants252 fan drafts

At #25

WR 43% sims 8%DL 29% sims 7%RB 14% sims 2%CB 7% sims 9%

Charlie Becker WR21%72% there

David Stone DL3T21%38% there

Kewan Lacy RB14%96% there

WEWilliam Echoles DL3T7%62% there

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR7%92% there

Round 2 favorites

Kade Pieper IOL9%

Ahmad Moten Sr DL3T6%

Omarion Miller WR6%

Round 3 favorites

Jelani McDonald S6%

Ryan Wingo WR5%

KJ Duff WR5%

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Raiders184 fan drafts

At #27

WR 68% sims 14%S 12% sims 8%DL 8% sims 4%OT 8% sims 10%

Nick Marsh WR40%74% there

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR16%88% there

Charlie Becker WR12%67% there

Tae Johnson S8%26% there

Will Echoles DL3T8%72% there

Round 2 favorites

Koi Perich S10%

KJ Duff WR8%

Omarion Miller WR5%

Round 3 favorites

Jayden Jackson DL1T6%

Jordan Ross EDGE6%

Jelani McDonald S6%

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Bears307 fan drafts

At #28

EDGE 37% sims 8%DL 31% sims 5%CB 12% sims 14%S 6% sims 4%

Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE33%69% there

Will Echoles DL3T14%70% there

Kelley Jones CB10%25% there

David Stone DL3T10%36% there

Kewan Lacy RB4%89% there

Round 2 favorites

Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE8%

Quincy Rhodes Jr EDGE7%

Will Heldt EDGE6%

Round 3 favorites

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE4%

Will Heldt EDGE4%

Ty Benefield S4%

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Seahawks78 fan drafts

At #29

RB 33% sims 7%EDGE 22% sims 8%IOL 11% sims 2%TE 11% sims 8%

Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE22%63% there

Kewan Lacy RB22%87% there

Jadan Baugh RB11%55% there

Nick Marsh WR11%63% there

Trey'Dez Green TE11%39% there

Round 2 favorites

Will Heldt EDGE8%

Jordan Ross EDGE6%

Greg Johnson IOL6%

Round 3 favorites

Bryant Wesco Jr WR6%

Will Heldt EDGE4%

Sam Leavitt QB4%

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Vikings545 fan drafts

At #30

RB 26% sims 12%S 22% sims 4%TE 20% sims 3%QB 12% sims 0%

Tae Johnson S20%14% there

Trey'Dez Green TE18%33% there

Kewan Lacy RB18%84% there

Jadan Baugh RB8%52% there

Kade Pieper OG8%98% there

Round 2 favorites

Trinidad Chambliss QB11%

Koi Perich S9%

Drew Mestemaker QB6%

Round 3 favorites

Nate Frazier RB6%

Clev Lubin EDGE5%

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE4%

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Chiefs214 fan drafts

At #31

WR 34% sims 8%TE 28% sims 3%OT 24% sims 18%EDGE 3% sims 3%

Trey'Dez Green TE21%30% there

Nick Marsh WR21%51% there

Trevor Lauck OT10%75% there

Jamari Johnson TE7%8% there

Charlie Becker WR7%52% there

Round 2 favorites

KJ Duff WR12%

Melvin Siani OT6%

Chris Cole LB6%

Round 3 favorites

Suntarine Perkins OLB5%

Terrance Carter Jr TE5%

Ty Benefield S4%

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49ers316 fan drafts

At #32

WR 37% sims 15%OT 18% sims 10%RB 14% sims 10%DL 10% sims 5%

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR22%76% there

Charlie Becker WR8%49% there

Nick Marsh WR8%47% there

Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE8%52% there

Jadan Baugh RB6%41% there

Round 2 favorites

Koi Perich S5%

Yhonzae Pierre EDGE5%

Trevor Lauck OT5%

Round 3 favorites

Jelani McDonald S5%

Terrance Carter Jr TE4%

Clev Lubin EDGE4%

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Packers174 fan drafts

Round 2 favorites

Kewan Lacy RB12%

Ahmad Hardy RB10%

Greg Johnson IOL9%

Round 3 favorites

Nate Frazier RB7%

Mark Fletcher Jr RB6%

TLTrevor Lauch OT5%

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Colts85 fan drafts

Round 2 favorites

Trinidad Chambliss QB8%

Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE6%

Omarion Miller WR6%

Round 3 favorites

Jelani McDonald S11%

KJ Duff WR8%

Brice Pollock CB5%

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Jaguars24 fan drafts

Round 2 favorites

Greg Johnson IOL13%

Melvin Siani OT9%

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB9%

Round 3 favorites

Whit Weeks LB18%

Jayden Jackson DL1T9%

PJ Williams OT9%

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Rams65 fan drafts

Round 2 favorites

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR12%

Quincy Rhodes Jr EDGE10%

Will Heldt EDGE8%

Round 3 favorites

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE18%

KJ Duff WR9%

Jelani McDonald S9%

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Where fans draft him vs the expert board

ADP: the average fan pick. Board: the expert rank. The line is his ADP by week; green is rising.

ADP	Player	Board	Fans vs board
2.4	Arch Manning QB · Texas	#2	agrees
3.9	Jeremiah Smith WR · Ohio State	#1	3 lower
4.4	Leonard Moore CB · Notre Dame	#3	1 lower
6.7	Dante Moore QB · Oregon	#6	agrees
6.9	Colin Simmons EDGE · Texas	#4	3 lower
8.3	Trevor Goosby OT · Texas	#8	agrees
10.2	Jordan Seaton OT · LSU	#9	1 lower
10.9	Darian Mensah QB · Miami	#15	4 higher
11.5	Dylan Stewart EDGE · South Carolina	#5	6 lower
11.9	Cam Coleman WR · Texas	#7	5 lower
12.0	David Stone DL · Oklahoma	#10	2 lower
12.0	Ellis Robinson IV CB · Georgia	#11	1 lower
12.9	A'Mauri Washington DL1T · Oregon	#11	2 lower
15.1	Julian Sayin QB · Ohio State	#14	1 lower
15.3	A'Mauri Washington DL · Oregon	#12	3 lower
19.9	Jamari Johnson TE · Oregon	#16	4 lower
20.4	KJ Bolden S · Georgia	#13	7 lower
21.2	Will Echoles DL3T · Ole Miss	#19	2 lower
21.8	David Stone DL3T · Oklahoma	#16	6 lower
22.6	WE William Echoles DL3T	#20	3 lower
25.6	Tae Johnson S · Notre Dame	#17	9 lower
25.7	Kelley Jones CB · Mississippi State	#25	agrees
25.9	Cayden Green OT · Missouri	#22	4 lower
26.4	Jadan Baugh RB · Florida	#24	2 lower
27.0	Charlie Becker WR · Indiana	#23	4 lower
28.4	Ashton Hampton CB · Clemson	#42	14 higher
30.4	Drew Mestemaker QB · Oklahoma State	#35	5 higher
30.9	Trey'Dez Green TE · LSU	#19	12 lower
32.2	Kade Pieper OG · Iowa	#31	1 lower
32.2	Ian Moore OT · Ohio State	#27	5 lower
32.8	Kewan Lacy RB · Ole Miss	#29	4 lower
33.5	Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE · Oregon	#28	6 lower
34.3	Nick Marsh WR · Indiana	#21	13 lower
36.5	CJ Carr QB · Notre Dame	#18	18 lower
37.1	Ryan Coleman-Williams WR · Alabama	#26	11 lower
38.2	Austin Siereveld OT · Ohio State	#36	2 lower
38.5	Trevor Lauck OT · Iowa	#33	6 lower
38.6	Carter Smith OT · Indiana	#27	12 lower
41.1	Justin Scott DL3T · Miami	#38	3 lower
41.3	Ahmad Moten Sr DL3T · Miami	#32	9 lower
41.3	Sammy Brown ILB · Clemson	#35	6 lower
42.1	Kade Pieper IOL · Iowa	#43	agrees
42.2	Sammy Brown LB · Clemson	#37	5 lower
42.7	Matthew Jung S · Wisconsin	#468	425 higher
43.7	Trinidad Chambliss QB · Ole Miss	#50	6 higher
44.4	Ahmad Hardy RB · Missouri	#39	5 lower
45.2	Greg Johnson OG · Minnesota	#47	2 higher
46.3	Chris Cole LB · Georgia	#41	5 lower
46.8	Zabien Brown CB · Alabama	#30	17 lower
47.5	Damon Wilson II EDGE · Miami	#38	10 lower
48.9	Chris Cole OLB · Georgia	#44	5 lower
50.9	Jesse Perry IOL · Tennessee	#47	4 lower
51.4	Austin Siereveld OG · Ohio State	#48	3 lower
51.8	LaNorris Sellers QB · South Carolina	#31	21 lower
52.3	Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE · Ohio State	#40	12 lower
52.7	Greg Johnson IOL · Minnesota	#53	agrees
54.8	Omarion Miller WR · Arizona State	#34	21 lower
57.1	Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa ILB · Notre Dame	#49	8 lower
57.4	Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB · Notre Dame	#47	10 lower
58.3	Melvin Siani OT · Texas	#51	7 lower
58.9	AJ Holmes Jr DL · Texas Tech	#46	13 lower
59.6	Damon Wilson Jr EDGE · Miami	#45	15 lower
63.1	Rasheem Biles LB · Texas	#56	7 lower
63.2	Will Heldt EDGE · Clemson	#59	4 lower
64.0	Katin Houser QB · Illinois	#465	401 higher
64.2	Koi Perich S · Oregon	#54	10 lower
64.2	Jacarrius Peak OT · South Carolina	#52	12 lower
64.8	AJ Holmes Jr DL3T · Texas Tech	#60	5 lower
66.2	ET Evan Tengeshdahl IOL	#61	5 lower
66.6	Iapani Laloulu IOL · Oregon	#66	agrees
67.3	OJ Frederique Jr CB · Miami	#57	10 lower
67.4	Rasheem Biles OLB · Texas	#60	7 lower
67.5	Yhonzae Pierre EDGE · Alabama	#60	8 lower
69.0	KJ Duff WR · Rutgers	#55	14 lower
69.4	Jayden Maiava QB · USC	#48	21 lower
72.3	Mario Craver WRS · Texas A&M	#49	23 lower
73.1	Ryan Wingo WR · Texas	#62	11 lower
75.7	Jackson Bennee S · Utah	#58	18 lower
75.8	Mario Craver WR · Texas A&M	#49	27 lower
76.0	Iapani Laloulu OC · Oregon	#77	1 higher
77.5	Jordan Ross EDGE · LSU	#74	4 lower
77.6	Jelani McDonald S · Texas	#72	6 lower
78.3	TL Trevor Lauch OT	#73	5 lower
80.9	TD Tony Diaz WR · NA	#58	23 lower
81.1	Quincy Rhodes Jr EDGE · Arkansas	#44	37 lower
81.3	Princewill Umanmielen EDGE · LSU	#81	agrees
83.0	Ty Benefield S · LSU	#80	3 lower
83.2	Fox Crader OT · NA	#72	11 lower
83.6	Kingston Lopa S · California	#101	17 higher
84.1	Jamari Sharpe CB · Indiana	#71	13 lower
84.5	Nate Frazier RB · Georgia	#75	10 lower
84.8	Sam Leavitt QB · LSU	#89	4 higher
84.9	Coen Echols IOL	#84	agrees
86.0	Horace Lockett DL · NA	#79	7 lower
86.4	Brice Pollock CB · Texas Tech	#70	16 lower
86.4	Boubacar Traore EDGE · Notre Dame	#64	22 lower
87.4	Chris Peal CB · Syracuse	#68	19 lower
87.5	Clev Lubin EDGE · Louisville	#78	10 lower
88.1	Tavion Gadson DL3T · Kentucky	#81	7 lower
88.3	Anthonie Knapp OT · Notre Dame	#87	1 lower

Be a GM trends

From 12,515 Be a GM offseasons: $5.9M of cap freed, 1.0 cuts and 1.4 signings a session.

Most cut

Brandon Aiyuk WR · SFsaves $3.5M

Luke Farrell TE · SFcosts $2.5M

Grady Jarrett DT · CHIsaves $12.3M

Dayo Odeyingbo DE · CHIsaves $12.2M

Calvin Ridley WR · TENsaves $14.2M

Dan Moore Jr. T · TENsaves $4.8M

Brandon Stephens CB · NYJsaves $6.6M

Chauncey Golston DE · NYGsaves $2.7M

Most signed in free agency

Joey Bosa EDGE · BUF$12.1M/yr

Tyreek Hill WR · MIA$13.4M/yr

Puka Nacua WR · LAR$30.6M/yr

Joey Porter Jr. CB · PIT$15.2M/yr

Marshon Lattimore CB · WAS$7.2M/yr

Bobby Wagner LB · WAS$4.2M/yr

George Pickens WR · DAL$22.6M/yr

Mekhi Becton OT · LAC$13.1M/yr

Most extended

George Pickens WR · DAL$16.7M/yr

Nick Bosa DE · SF$12.6M/yr

Brian Branch SS · DET$12.1M/yr

Sam LaPorta TE · DET$11.2M/yr

Fred Warner MLB · SF$9.7M/yr

George Kittle TE · SF$4.7M/yr

Christian McCaffrey RB · SF$3.9M/yr

Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF$9.3M/yr

Questions

Who do fans take first overall in 2027 mock drafts?: Jeremiah Smith, in 66% of the fan mock drafts that reached pick one.
Where does this data come from?: Every mock draft run on the StickToTheModel simulator, counted nightly. Fan picks are the picks users made for their own team; the sims are full drafts with all 32 teams drafting.
How is the chance a player is still there worked out?: From the simulated drafts: the share of sims that took him before that pick, taken away from 100.

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