Who do fans take first overall in 2027 mock drafts?

Jeremiah Smith, in 73% of the fan mock drafts that reached pick one.

Where does this data come from?

Every mock draft run on the StickToTheModel simulator, counted nightly. Fan picks are the picks users made for their own team; the sims are full drafts with all 32 teams drafting.

How is the chance a player is still there worked out?

From the simulated drafts: the share of sims that took him before that pick, taken away from 100.

FreeMock Draft Simulator · seven rounds, trades, every pick graded as you make itStart a mock

Mock Draft Simulator / Community

Community Mock Draft 2027

Updated October 2, 2026, counted nightly

What 7,024 real mock drafts on our simulator did. Tap your team for its fans' picks.

First round Draft odds Still there?Most sought-after Team by team Fans vs board Be a GM

The fans' first round

What fans took at each pick, one player per pick. Sims: how often our simulator puts him there.

Pick	Fans' pick	Fans	Sims	Runner-up
1	Jeremiah Smith WR · Ohio State	73%	14%	Arch Manning QB, 12%
2	Arch Manning QB · Texas	27%	50%	Colin Simmons EDGE, 3%
3	Dante Moore QB · Oregon	21%	38%	Leonard Moore CB, 5%
4	Colin Simmons EDGE · Texas	27%	24%	Darian Mensah QB, 8%
5	Leonard Moore CB · Notre Dame	32%	35%	Darian Mensah QB, 4%
6	Trevor Goosby OT · Texas	7%	4%	Cam Coleman WR, 6%
7	Cam Coleman WR · Texas	51%	31%	Dylan Stewart EDGE, 20%
8	David Stone DL · Oklahoma	17%	4%	Ellis Robinson IV CB, 15%
9	Darian Mensah QB · Miami	21%	13%	Trinidad Chambliss QB, 8%
10	Ellis Robinson IV CB · Georgia	13%	9%	Julian Sayin QB, 4%
11	Julian Sayin QB · Ohio State	7%	7%	CJ Carr QB, 7%
12	KJ Bolden S · Georgia	13%	2%	CJ Carr QB, 4%
13	A'Mauri Washington DL · Oregon	17%	11%	Nick Marsh WR, 9%
14	Jamari Johnson TE · Oregon	9%	4%	Kelley Jones CB, 9%
15	Tae Johnson S · Notre Dame	5%	2%	Drew Mestemaker QB, 5%
16	Jordan Seaton OT · LSU	19%	9%	Cayden Green OT, 9%
17	Will Echoles DL3T	18%	10%	CJ Carr QB, 5%
18	Jadan Baugh RB · Florida	23%	2%	CJ Carr QB, 7%
19	Charlie Becker WR · Indiana	12%	2%	Kade Pieper IOL, 12%
20	Kelley Jones CB · Mississippi State	7%	5%	CJ Carr QB, 6%
21	Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE · Oregon	12%	8%	Zabien Brown CB, 9%
22	Nick Marsh WR · Indiana	23%	4%	Trey'Dez Green TE, 23%
23	Trey'Dez Green TE · LSU	38%	14%	Kade Pieper IOL, 2%
24	CJ Carr QB · Notre Dame	10%	2%	William Echoles DL3T, 8%
25	Carter Smith OT · Indiana	21%	12%	Cayden Green OT, 11%
26	LaNorris Sellers QB · South Carolina	7%	3%	Kewan Lacy RB, 4%
27	Ryan Coleman-Williams WR · Alabama	18%	2%	Kewan Lacy RB, 9%
28	Zabien Brown CB · Alabama	12%	10%	Austin Siereveld OT, 11%
29	Trevor Lauck OT · Iowa	8%	14%	KJ Duff WR, 3%
30	Kewan Lacy RB · Ole Miss	16%	13%	Cayden Green OT, 7%
31	Austin Siereveld OT · Ohio State	14%	10%	Ashton Hampton CB, 5%
32	Ahmad Moten Sr DL3T · Miami	13%	6%	Drew Mestemaker QB, 8%

Draft odds

From 7,024 simulated drafts: the pick where half have taken him, and how often he goes top 5, top 10, round one.

Player	Over/under	Top 5	Top 10	Round 1
Arch Manning QB · Texas	1.3	98%	>99%	>99%
Leonard Moore CB · Notre Dame	4.1	81%	>99%	>99%
Dante Moore QB · Oregon	2.8	81%	98%	98%
Colin Simmons EDGE · Texas	3.8	64%	94%	99%
Jeremiah Smith WR · Ohio State	4.7	55%	99%	>99%
Dylan Stewart EDGE · South Carolina	7.0	34%	85%	98%
Trevor Goosby OT · Texas	7.8	32%	66%	98%
Jordan Seaton OT · LSU	10.3	21%	48%	98%
Julian Sayin QB · Ohio State	8.2	7%	68%	91%
Darian Mensah QB · Miami	10.1	7%	49%	96%
Cam Coleman WR · Texas	7.1	6%	73%	98%
Ellis Robinson IV CB · Georgia	11.6	3%	27%	97%
David Stone DL · Oklahoma	11.4	2%	36%	98%
CJ Carr QB · Notre Dame	23.2	2%	9%	56%
LaNorris Sellers QB · South Carolina	29.4	1%	6%	53%
Drew Mestemaker QB · Oklahoma State	—	1%	2%	8%
Trinidad Chambliss QB · Ole Miss	64.9	1%	1%	1%
A'Mauri Washington DL · Oregon	13.8	--	12%	97%
Kelley Jones CB · Mississippi State	20.9	--	2%	94%
Carter Smith OT · Indiana	26.2	--	1%	79%
Cayden Green OT · Missouri	22.1	--	--	93%
Trevor Lauck OT · Iowa	32.1	--	--	50%
Austin Siereveld OT · Ohio State	37.0	--	--	27%
KJ Bolden S · Georgia	16.3	--	3%	96%
William Echoles DL3T · Ole Miss	48.1	--	--	40%
Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE · Oregon	27.3	--	--	75%
Jadan Baugh RB · Florida	26.2	--	--	72%
Kewan Lacy RB · Ole Miss	31.8	--	--	51%
Jamari Johnson TE · Oregon	20.5	--	1%	94%
Charlie Becker WR · Indiana	31.3	--	1%	58%

Will he still be there?

The chance each is still on the board at that pick. Green: likely. Amber: a coin flip. Red: gone.

Player	#5	#10	#15	#20	#25	#32
Jeremiah Smith WR · Ohio State	60%	3%	--	--	--	--
Arch Manning QB · Texas	6%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%
Dante Moore QB · Oregon	29%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%
Colin Simmons EDGE · Texas	45%	8%	1%	1%	1%	1%
Leonard Moore CB · Notre Dame	54%	1%	--	--	--	--
Trevor Goosby OT · Texas	75%	40%	6%	2%	2%	2%
Cam Coleman WR · Texas	97%	34%	8%	2%	2%	2%
David Stone DL · Oklahoma	99%	84%	14%	2%	2%	2%
Darian Mensah QB · Miami	96%	63%	25%	9%	4%	4%
Ellis Robinson IV CB · Georgia	98%	82%	12%	3%	3%	3%
Julian Sayin QB · Ohio State	96%	40%	16%	9%	9%	9%
KJ Bolden S · Georgia	>99%	98%	71%	16%	4%	4%
A'Mauri Washington DL · Oregon	>99%	95%	46%	4%	3%	3%
Jamari Johnson TE · Oregon	>99%	>99%	89%	60%	13%	6%
Tae Johnson S · Notre Dame	>99%	>99%	98%	54%	18%	4%
Jordan Seaton OT · LSU	83%	60%	16%	2%	2%	2%
Will Echoles	>99%	>99%	>99%	63%	51%	51%
Jadan Baugh RB · Florida	>99%	>99%	>99%	97%	64%	31%
Charlie Becker WR · Indiana	>99%	>99%	99%	96%	86%	54%
Kelley Jones CB · Mississippi State	>99%	98%	93%	68%	28%	8%
Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE · Oregon	>99%	>99%	>99%	95%	73%	29%
Nick Marsh WR · Indiana	>99%	>99%	99%	85%	66%	29%
Trey'Dez Green TE · LSU	>99%	>99%	99%	91%	42%	12%
CJ Carr QB · Notre Dame	99%	93%	77%	60%	48%	44%
Carter Smith OT · Indiana	>99%	>99%	98%	94%	77%	24%
LaNorris Sellers QB · South Carolina	>99%	95%	91%	79%	62%	49%
Ryan Coleman-Williams WR · Alabama	>99%	>99%	>99%	>99%	97%	83%
Zabien Brown CB · Alabama	>99%	>99%	97%	90%	75%	27%
Trevor Lauck OT · Iowa	>99%	>99%	>99%	>99%	97%	54%
Kewan Lacy RB · Ole Miss	>99%	>99%	>99%	>99%	96%	54%
Austin Siereveld OT · Ohio State	>99%	>99%	>99%	>99%	>99%	75%
Ahmad Moten Sr DL3T · Miami	>99%	>99%	>99%	95%	85%	61%

Most sought-after, round by round

Teams: fanbases that take him often. Top spot: the fanbase that wants him most.

Round 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7

Player	Teams	Top spot	Range
Cayden Green OT · Missouri	5	11%	#15–#31
CJ Carr QB · Notre Dame	5	10%	#4–#24
Dylan Stewart EDGE · South Carolina	4	20%	#1–#14
Trey'Dez Green TE · LSU	3	38%	#9–#23
Nick Marsh WR · Indiana	3	23%	#6–#22
Darian Mensah QB · Miami	3	21%	#3–#9
Austin Siereveld OT · Ohio State	3	14%	#25–#31
Trevor Lauck OT · Iowa	3	9%	#25–#29
Cam Coleman WR · Texas	2	51%	#5–#7
Arch Manning QB · Texas	2	27%	#1–#2
Colin Simmons EDGE · Texas	2	27%	#1–#4
Jordan Seaton OT · LSU	2	19%	#6–#16

Player	Teams	Top spot
Sammy Brown LB · Clemson	8	48%
Koi Perich S · Oregon	7	37%
Kade Pieper IOL · Iowa	9	19%
Trinidad Chambliss QB · Ole Miss	6	26%
Greg Johnson IOL · Minnesota	5	25%
Chris Cole LB · Georgia	6	14%
KJ Duff WR · Rutgers	8	9%
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB · Notre Dame	5	11%
Ryan Coleman-Williams WR · Alabama	5	8%
Ahmad Hardy RB · Missouri	5	12%
Quincy Rhodes Jr EDGE · Arkansas	4	10%
Ashton Hampton CB · Clemson	4	11%

Player	Teams	Top spot
Jelani McDonald S · Texas	8	23%
Princewill Umanmielen EDGE · LSU	4	21%
Mark Fletcher Jr RB · Miami	4	24%
Clev Lubin EDGE · Louisville	3	27%
Ty Benefield S · LSU	4	14%
Teitum Tuioti EDGE · Oregon	3	15%
Nate Frazier RB · Georgia	4	15%
Jordan Ross EDGE · LSU	3	11%
Whit Weeks LB · LSU	6	9%
Ryan Wingo WR · Texas	6	8%
Brice Pollock CB · Texas Tech	4	9%
Luke Montgomery OG · Ohio State	4	10%

Player	Teams	Top spot
Bear Alexander DL · Oregon	7	12%
Peter Clarke TE · Temple	7	20%
LJ Martin RB · BYU	6	10%
Jyaire Hill CB · Michigan	6	11%
Ben Roberts ILB · Texas Tech	3	8%
Benjamin Brahmer TE · Penn State	4	13%
Whit Weeks LB · LSU	4	8%
Jaylen McClain S · Ohio State	1	10%
Justice Haynes RB · Georgia Tech	3	10%
Samson Okunlola OG · Miami	3	7%
Cole Sullivan LB · Oklahoma	2	5%
Andrew Sprague OT · Michigan	3	11%

Player	Teams	Top spot
Blake Frazier OT · Michigan	5	12%
Keon Sabb S · Alabama	4	17%
Jermaine Mathews Jr CB · Ohio State	3	12%
Justin Evans OC · Nebraska	4	21%
Amare Ferrell S · Indiana	3	11%
Christian Gray CB · Notre Dame	3	19%
Kip Lewis OLB · Oklahoma	4	11%
Lawson Luckie TE · Georgia	4	12%
Adon Shuler S · Notre Dame	4	10%
Andrew Rappleyea TE · Penn State	3	18%
Brett Norfleet TE · Missouri	3	8%
Evan Johnson CB · BYU	3	11%

Player	Teams	Top spot
Darius Taylor RB · Minnesota	5	12%
Brett Norfleet TE · Missouri	4	10%
Raleek Brown RB · Texas	3	9%
Maraad Watson DL1T · Texas	4	16%
Samuel Omosigho ILB · UCLA	3	10%
Dom Nichols EDGE · Michigan	3	10%
Rod Moore S · Michigan	2	9%
Devan Thompkins DL3T · Alabama	3	7%
Raylen Wilson ILB · Georgia	3	8%
Anthony Donkoh OG · Penn State	2	13%
Lance Heard OT · Kentucky	3	9%
Theo Melin Ohrstrom TE · SMU	2	8%

Player	Teams	Top spot
Drew Evans OG · Indiana	8	12%
Dominick McKinley DL3T · LSU	4	20%
Cam Calhoun CB · Ohio State	5	9%
Tyree Adams OT · Texas A&M	1	14%
Luke Reynolds TE · Virginia Tech	5	8%
Earl Little Jr S · Ohio State	4	9%
PJ Woodland CBN · LSU	4	11%
Qua Russaw EDGE · Ohio State	4	9%
Terry Moore S · Ohio State	4	12%
Amare Thomas WR · Houston	4	8%
Dom Nichols EDGE · Michigan	5	9%
Michael Masunas TE · Texas	3	5%

Team by team: what each fanbase drafts

Each fanbase's own drafts: positions against the sims, the players, and the chance each is there.

Texans96 fan drafts

At #1

WR 58% sims 14%QB 21% sims 34%EDGE 16% sims 30%RB 5% sims 0%

Jeremiah Smith WR58%100% there

Arch Manning QB21%100% there

Colin Simmons EDGE10%100% there

Jadan Baugh RB5%100% there

Dylan Stewart EDGE5%100% there

Round 2 favorites

Greg Johnson IOL11%

Jadan Baugh RB7%

Rasheem Biles LB6%

Round 3 favorites

Mark Fletcher Jr RB9%

Nate Frazier RB6%

John Henry Daley EDGE5%

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Buccaneers94 fan drafts

At #2

WR 67% sims 10%QB 33% sims 72%

Jeremiah Smith WR67%86% there

Arch Manning QB33%68% there

Round 2 favorites

Greg Johnson IOL9%

Kade Pieper IOL8%

Chris Cole LB7%

Round 3 favorites

KJ Duff WR5%

Evan Tengeshdahl IOL5%

Coen Echols IOL4%

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Titans281 fan drafts

At #3

WR 67% sims 11%CB 13% sims 17%EDGE 11% sims 8%QB 4% sims 50%

Jeremiah Smith WR67%77% there

Leonard Moore CB13%90% there

Colin Simmons EDGE11%74% there

Round 2 favorites

Kewan Lacy RB11%

Ahmad Hardy RB8%

Jadan Baugh RB7%

Round 3 favorites

Nate Frazier RB6%

Iapani Laloulu IOL4%

Jelani McDonald S4%

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Chargers175 fan drafts

At #4

WR 46% sims 9%EDGE 27% sims 41%CB 27% sims 21%

Jeremiah Smith WR46%67% there

Colin Simmons EDGE27%69% there

Leonard Moore CB18%73% there

Ellis Robinson IV CB9%100% there

Round 2 favorites

Koi Perich S6%

Sammy Brown LB4%

Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE4%

Round 3 favorites

Teitum Tuioti EDGE6%

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE5%

Will Heldt EDGE5%

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Dolphins359 fan drafts

At #5

WR 71% sims 18%EDGE 17% sims 13%QB 7% sims 20%OT 5% sims 10%

Jeremiah Smith WR71%60% there

Dylan Stewart EDGE10%71% there

Colin Simmons EDGE7%45% there

Trevor Goosby OT5%75% there

Round 2 favorites

Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE8%

Trinidad Chambliss QB7%

Drew Mestemaker QB6%

Round 3 favorites

Jelani McDonald S6%

Luke Montgomery OG4%

Jordan Ross EDGE3%

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Jets457 fan drafts

At #6

WR 50% sims 42%CB 17% sims 11%QB 13% sims 24%EDGE 9% sims 12%

Jeremiah Smith WR46%45% there

Leonard Moore CB17%19% there

Dante Moore QB7%19% there

Dylan Stewart EDGE6%66% there

Jordan Seaton OT4%79% there

At #8

QB 35% sims 42%DL 19% sims 6%CB 15% sims 9%WR 15% sims 14%

David Stone DL17%92% there

Ellis Robinson IV CB15%91% there

Dante Moore QB15%9% there

Darian Mensah QB10%87% there

Jeremiah Smith WR10%6% there

At #12

QB 34% sims 15%CB 30% sims 11%DL 15% sims 12%S 13% sims 3%

Ellis Robinson IV CB30%56% there

Darian Mensah QB17%41% there

KJ Bolden S13%85% there

David Stone DL11%53% there

Julian Sayin QB6%26% there

Round 2 favorites

Sammy Brown LB19%

Kade Pieper IOL7%

Chris Cole LB6%

Round 3 favorites

Jelani McDonald S10%

Brice Pollock CB4%

Iapani Laloulu IOL4%

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Cowboys281 fan drafts

At #7

WR 39% sims 40%EDGE 22% sims 18%OT 17% sims 13%S 9% sims 1%

Jeremiah Smith WR35%15% there

Dylan Stewart EDGE13%61% there

Trevor Goosby OT13%64% there

Colin Simmons EDGE9%30% there

KJ Bolden S9%100% there

Round 2 favorites

Sammy Brown LB10%

Chris Cole LB6%

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB6%

Round 3 favorites

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE8%

Bear Alexander DL7%

Ryan Wingo WR6%

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Saints92 fan drafts

At #9

WR 36% sims 7%EDGE 27% sims 32%OT 9% sims 14%CB 9% sims 6%

Jeremiah Smith WR36%5% there

Damon Wilson Jr EDGE9%100% there

Ellis Robinson IV CB9%86% there

David Stone DL9%88% there

Carter Smith OT9%99% there

Round 2 favorites

Quincy Rhodes Jr EDGE10%

Yhonzae Pierre EDGE6%

Damon Wilson Jr EDGE5%

Round 3 favorites

Jordan Ross EDGE7%

Teitum Tuioti EDGE7%

Terrance Carter Jr TE6%

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Commanders214 fan drafts

At #10

WR 65% sims 10%OT 18% sims 15%QB 6% sims 23%DL 6% sims 28%

Cam Coleman WR35%34% there

Charlie Becker WR12%100% there

Jordan Seaton OT12%60% there

Jeremiah Smith WR12%3% there

Nick Marsh WR6%100% there

Round 2 favorites

Kade Pieper IOL14%

Ahmad Hardy RB11%

KJ Duff WR8%

Round 3 favorites

Jelani McDonald S6%

Ty Benefield S5%

Brice Pollock CB5%

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Falcons311 fan drafts

At #11

QB 28% sims 22%WR 22% sims 10%OT 22% sims 10%DL 17% sims 13%

Cam Coleman WR22%27% there

Jordan Seaton OT22%52% there

Julian Sayin QB17%32% there

Trinidad Chambliss QB11%99% there

Will Echoles DL3T6%100% there

Round 2 favorites

Trinidad Chambliss QB11%

Austin Siereveld OT5%

Drew Mestemaker QB5%

Round 3 favorites

Trevor Lauch OT5%

Brice Pollock CB4%

Ryan Wingo WR4%

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Patriots270 fan drafts

Round 2 favorites

Koi Perich S20%

Chris Cole LB10%

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB10%

Round 3 favorites

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE8%

Zach Lutmer S7%

Clev Lubin EDGE6%

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Cardinals158 fan drafts

At #14

QB 75% sims 11%WR 25% sims 5%

Cam Coleman WR25%12% there

Arch Manning QB25%1% there

CJ Carr QB25%80% there

Julian Sayin QB25%19% there

Round 2 favorites

Austin Siereveld OT8%

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR6%

Trevor Lauck OT6%

Round 3 favorites

Bray Hubbard S5%

Jelani McDonald S5%

Jordan Ross EDGE4%

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Browns351 fan drafts

At #15

QB 50% sims 14%TE 21% sims 5%S 14% sims 13%EDGE 7% sims 0%

Jamari Johnson TE14%89% there

Darian Mensah QB14%25% there

KJ Bolden S14%71% there

CJ Carr QB14%77% there

Trinidad Chambliss QB7%99% there

At #27

DL 33% sims 5%CB 33% sims 11%WR 33% sims 23%

Nick Marsh WR33%58% there

Kelley Jones CB17%20% there

Jayden Jackson DL1T17%100% there

William Echoles DL3T17%66% there

Ashton Hampton CB17%95% there

Round 2 favorites

Ashton Hampton CB7%

Ahmad Moten Sr DL3T6%

Sammy Brown LB6%

Round 3 favorites

Elijah Green CB7%

Terrance Carter Jr TE4%

Chris Peal CB4%

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Steelers235 fan drafts

At #16

RB 20% sims 0%QB 20% sims 9%S 20% sims 10%WR 20% sims 3%

Kelley Jones CB20%91% there

CJ Carr QB20%73% there

Nick Marsh WR20%97% there

KJ Bolden S20%60% there

Jadan Baugh RB20%100% there

Round 2 favorites

Chris Cole LB9%

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB8%

Trinidad Chambliss QB8%

Round 3 favorites

Nate Frazier RB5%

Mark Fletcher Jr RB5%

Anthonie Knapp OT4%

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Bengals165 fan drafts

At #17

TE 50% sims 12%S 33% sims 14%RB 17% sims 0%

Tae Johnson S33%93% there

Jamari Johnson TE33%79% there

Trey'Dez Green TE17%99% there

Jadan Baugh RB17%100% there

Round 2 favorites

Rasheem Biles LB18%

Sammy Brown LB7%

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB6%

Round 3 favorites

PJ Williams OT6%

Mark Fletcher Jr RB6%

Jelani McDonald S4%

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Giants271 fan drafts

At #18

DL 57% sims 7%WR 14% sims 3%S 14% sims 34%CB 14% sims 3%

Will Echoles DL3T57%74% there

Tae Johnson S14%89% there

Zabien Brown CB14%93% there

Cam Coleman WR14%2% there

Round 2 favorites

Kade Pieper IOL9%

AJ Holmes Jr DL6%

Mario Craver WR6%

Round 3 favorites

Ty Benefield S6%

Jelani McDonald S6%

Coen Echols IOL5%

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Panthers91 fan drafts

At #19

TE 50% sims 8%OT 25% sims 5%RB 25% sims 2%

Jadan Baugh RB25%98% there

Cayden Green OT25%70% there

Jamari Johnson TE25%65% there

Trey'Dez Green TE25%94% there

Round 2 favorites

Chris Cole LB9%

Sammy Brown LB8%

Greg Johnson IOL8%

Round 3 favorites

Nate Frazier RB6%

Jelani McDonald S6%

Nyck Harbor WR4%

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Ravens124 fan drafts

At #21

WR 44% sims 7%TE 33% sims 15%OT 22% sims 8%

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR33%100% there

Cayden Green OT22%61% there

Trey'Dez Green TE22%88% there

Jamari Johnson TE11%55% there

Nick Marsh WR11%81% there

Round 2 favorites

OJ Frederique Jr CB6%

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR6%

Ashton Hampton CB6%

Round 3 favorites

Mark Fletcher Jr RB6%

Nyck Harbor WR6%

PJ Williams OT6%

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Eagles138 fan drafts

At #22

S 100% sims 9%

Tae Johnson S100%38% there

Round 2 favorites

Greg Johnson IOL9%

Koi Perich S8%

Jackson Bennee S6%

Round 3 favorites

Nate Frazier RB8%

Trevor Lauch OT8%

Jordan Ross EDGE5%

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Lions348 fan drafts

At #23

CB 38% sims 9%QB 15% sims 3%TE 15% sims 34%EDGE 8% sims 2%

Kelley Jones CB23%42% there

Trey'Dez Green TE15%75% there

Zabien Brown CB15%81% there

Quincy Rhodes Jr EDGE8%100% there

Cayden Green OT8%51% there

Round 2 favorites

Koi Perich S8%

Quincy Rhodes Jr EDGE6%

Greg Johnson IOL6%

Round 3 favorites

Ty Benefield S8%

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE5%

Zach Lutmer S4%

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Bears267 fan drafts

At #24

EDGE 50% sims 5%CB 25% sims 13%DL 10% sims 5%RB 5% sims 5%

Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE50%78% there

Kelley Jones CB15%37% there

Zabien Brown CB10%78% there

Sammy Brown LB5%100% there

Jadan Baugh RB5%68% there

Round 2 favorites

Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE7%

Will Heldt EDGE7%

Quincy Rhodes Jr EDGE7%

Round 3 favorites

Jayden Jackson DL1T6%

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE5%

Teitum Tuioti EDGE5%

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Seahawks90 fan drafts

At #25

WR 100% sims 7%

Nick Marsh WR100%66% there

Round 2 favorites

Damon Wilson Jr EDGE8%

Will Heldt EDGE7%

Greg Johnson IOL7%

Round 3 favorites

Anthony Smith DL9%

Nyck Harbor WR4%

Whit Weeks LB4%

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Broncos81 fan drafts

At #26

TE 60% sims 3%WR 20% sims 7%EDGE 20% sims 4%

Trey'Dez Green TE40%34% there

Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE20%100% there

Charlie Becker WR20%83% there

Jamari Johnson TE20%10% there

Round 2 favorites

Sammy Brown LB13%

Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB9%

Chris Cole LB8%

Round 3 favorites

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE8%

Whit Weeks LB6%

Terrance Carter Jr TE6%

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Bills453 fan drafts

At #28

OT 43% sims 14%CB 19% sims 16%WR 13% sims 8%IOL 8% sims 2%

Carter Smith OT13%45% there

Zabien Brown CB12%59% there

Austin Siereveld OT11%95% there

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR9%93% there

Cayden Green OT9%18% there

Round 2 favorites

Ryan Wingo WR9%

KJ Duff WR7%

Elijah Green CB6%

Round 3 favorites

Nyck Harbor WR6%

Suntarine Perkins OLB5%

Luke Montgomery OG5%

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Vikings513 fan drafts

At #29

RB 53% sims 6%EDGE 12% sims 10%QB 12% sims 2%WR 9% sims 8%

Jadan Baugh RB50%43% there

Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE12%41% there

Charlie Becker WR9%68% there

Trey'Dez Green TE6%23% there

CJ Carr QB6%44% there

Round 2 favorites

Koi Perich S13%

Trinidad Chambliss QB9%

Greg Johnson IOL9%

Round 3 favorites

Clev Lubin EDGE7%

Mark Fletcher Jr RB6%

Isaac Brown RB6%

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Raiders192 fan drafts

At #30

WR 77% sims 21%QB 8% sims 2%IOL 8% sims 4%DL 4% sims 5%

Charlie Becker WR46%66% there

Nick Marsh WR19%41% there

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR12%89% there

LaNorris Sellers QB8%51% there

Kelley Jones CB4%11% there

Round 2 favorites

Kade Pieper IOL9%

KJ Duff WR8%

Koi Perich S7%

Round 3 favorites

Jelani McDonald S11%

Jordan Ross EDGE8%

Ty Benefield S5%

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49ers321 fan drafts

At #31

WR 44% sims 8%RB 17% sims 10%OT 13% sims 32%DL 9% sims 7%

Ryan Coleman-Williams WR26%85% there

Charlie Becker WR13%58% there

Jadan Baugh RB13%36% there

Trevor Lauck OT9%65% there

Kewan Lacy RB4%58% there

Round 2 favorites

Iapani Laloulu IOL6%

Yhonzae Pierre EDGE5%

Koi Perich S5%

Round 3 favorites

PJ Williams OT5%

Jelani McDonald S4%

Nyck Harbor WR4%

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Chiefs195 fan drafts

At #32

LB 100% sims 2%

Sammy Brown LB100%99% there

Round 2 favorites

KJ Duff WR9%

Melvin Siani OT7%

Sammy Brown LB6%

Round 3 favorites

Suntarine Perkins OLB8%

Whit Weeks LB6%

Terrance Carter Jr TE5%

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Packers194 fan drafts

Round 2 favorites

Greg Johnson IOL14%

Melvin Siani OT8%

Ahmad Hardy RB8%

Round 3 favorites

Mark Fletcher Jr RB8%

Nate Frazier RB5%

Coen Echols IOL5%

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Colts99 fan drafts

Round 2 favorites

Trinidad Chambliss QB7%

Damon Wilson Jr EDGE6%

Kade Pieper IOL4%

Round 3 favorites

Jelani McDonald S10%

Princewill Umanmielen EDGE5%

KJ Duff WR5%

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Jaguars27 fan drafts

Round 2 favorites

Greg Johnson IOL16%

Melvin Siani OT16%

William Echoles DL3T8%

Round 3 favorites

Whit Weeks LB13%

Wyatt Young WR9%

PJ Williams OT9%

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Rams81 fan drafts

Round 2 favorites

Quincy Rhodes Jr EDGE10%

Will Heldt EDGE6%

KJ Duff WR6%

Round 3 favorites

Teitum Tuioti EDGE9%

Suntarine Perkins OLB9%

Jelani McDonald S9%

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Where fans draft him vs the expert board

ADP: the average fan pick. Board: the expert rank. The line is his ADP by week; green is rising.

ADP	Player	Board	Fans vs board
2.2	Arch Manning QB · Texas	#2	agrees
3.7	Jeremiah Smith WR · Ohio State	#1	3 lower
4.3	Leonard Moore CB · Notre Dame	#3	1 lower
5.3	Dante Moore QB · Oregon	#6	agrees
6.9	Colin Simmons EDGE · Texas	#4	3 lower
8.1	Dylan Stewart EDGE · South Carolina	#5	3 lower
9.9	Trevor Goosby OT · Texas	#8	2 lower
10.1	Jordan Seaton OT · LSU	#9	1 lower
11.0	Cam Coleman WR · Texas	#7	4 lower
11.3	David Stone DL · Oklahoma	#10	1 lower
12.6	Ellis Robinson IV CB · Georgia	#11	2 lower
13.7	Darian Mensah QB · Miami	#15	1 higher
14.0	Julian Sayin QB · Ohio State	#14	agrees
15.8	A'Mauri Washington DL · Oregon	#12	4 lower
17.0	KJ Bolden S · Georgia	#13	4 lower
19.3	CJ Carr QB · Notre Dame	#18	1 lower
21.7	William Echoles DL3T · Ole Miss	#20	2 lower
21.8	Tae Johnson S · Notre Dame	#17	5 lower
21.9	Jamari Johnson TE · Oregon	#16	6 lower
24.4	Cayden Green OT · Missouri	#22	2 lower
24.9	Kelley Jones CB · Mississippi State	#25	agrees
26.2	Trey'Dez Green TE · LSU	#19	7 lower
29.9	Jadan Baugh RB · Florida	#24	6 lower
30.6	Matayo Uiagalelei EDGE · Oregon	#28	3 lower
31.4	Carter Smith OT · Indiana	#27	4 lower
32.1	Zabien Brown CB · Alabama	#30	2 lower
35.8	Nick Marsh WR · Indiana	#21	15 lower
36.4	Trevor Lauck OT · Iowa	#33	3 lower
36.5	Drew Mestemaker QB · Oklahoma State	#35	2 lower
37.2	Kewan Lacy RB · Ole Miss	#29	8 lower
37.3	Charlie Becker WR · Indiana	#23	14 lower
39.1	Ahmad Moten Sr DL3T · Miami	#32	7 lower
39.1	Austin Siereveld OT · Ohio State	#36	3 lower
39.8	Ryan Coleman-Williams WR · Alabama	#26	14 lower
39.8	LaNorris Sellers QB · South Carolina	#31	9 lower
40.8	Ashton Hampton CB · Clemson	#42	1 higher
42.2	Kade Pieper IOL · Iowa	#43	agrees
45.2	Justin Scott DL3T · Miami	#38	7 lower
45.6	Sammy Brown LB · Clemson	#37	9 lower
47.3	Kenyatta Jackson Jr EDGE · Ohio State	#40	7 lower
49.1	Chris Cole LB · Georgia	#41	8 lower
51.6	Trinidad Chambliss QB · Ole Miss	#50	2 lower
52.0	Ahmad Hardy RB · Missouri	#39	13 lower
52.9	Greg Johnson IOL · Minnesota	#53	agrees
53.8	Quincy Rhodes Jr EDGE · Arkansas	#44	10 lower
54.8	Melvin Siani OT · Texas	#51	4 lower
55.6	Omarion Miller WR · Arizona State	#34	22 lower
56.1	AJ Holmes Jr DL · Texas Tech	#46	10 lower
56.4	Damon Wilson Jr EDGE · Miami	#45	11 lower
57.5	Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa LB · Notre Dame	#47	10 lower
59.1	Jayden Maiava QB · USC	#48	11 lower
59.7	Koi Perich S · Oregon	#54	6 lower
60.5	OJ Frederique Jr CB · Miami	#57	4 lower
63.0	Jacarrius Peak OT · South Carolina	#52	11 lower
64.6	Rasheem Biles LB · Texas	#56	9 lower
64.6	Evan Tengeshdahl IOL · Cincinnati	#61	4 lower
66.5	Elijah Green CB · Tulsa	#67	agrees
67.0	Iapani Laloulu IOL · Oregon	#66	1 lower
69.8	Chris Peal CB · Syracuse	#68	2 lower
71.0	KJ Duff WR · Rutgers	#55	16 lower
71.1	Yhonzae Pierre EDGE · Alabama	#60	11 lower
71.1	Jackson Bennee S · Utah	#58	13 lower
71.8	Will Heldt EDGE · Clemson	#59	13 lower
75.0	Mario Craver WR · Texas A&M	#49	26 lower
75.2	Jamari Sharpe CB · Indiana	#71	4 lower
75.9	Brice Pollock CB · Texas Tech	#72	4 lower
77.6	Jelani McDonald S · Texas	#72	6 lower
77.6	Drake Lindsey QB · Minnesota	#65	13 lower
78.0	Trevor Lauch OT · Iowa	#73	5 lower
81.0	Vicari Swain CB · South Carolina	#77	4 lower
81.3	Ryan Wingo WR · Texas	#62	19 lower
82.2	Boubacar Traore EDGE · Notre Dame	#64	18 lower
82.6	Nate Frazier RB · Georgia	#75	8 lower
85.6	Coen Echols IOL · Texas A&M	#84	2 lower
85.8	Terrance Carter Jr TE · Texas Tech	#79	7 lower
86.4	Bryant Wesco Jr WR · Clemson	#63	23 lower
87.1	Ty Benefield S · LSU	#80	7 lower
87.6	Jordan Ross EDGE · LSU	#74	14 lower
88.7	Jayden Jackson DL1T · Oklahoma	#83	6 lower
88.8	Anthonie Knapp OT · Notre Dame	#87	2 lower
89.9	PJ Williams OT · SMU	#93	3 higher
90.8	Teitum Tuioti EDGE · Oregon	#76	15 lower
92.6	Bray Hubbard S · Alabama	#82	11 lower
93.6	Clev Lubin EDGE · Louisville	#78	16 lower
93.8	Zach Lutmer S · Iowa	#85	9 lower
93.8	Mark Fletcher Jr RB · Miami	#91	3 lower
93.9	Wyatt Young WR · Oklahoma State	#69	25 lower
93.9	Princewill Umanmielen EDGE · LSU	#81	13 lower
94.2	Sam Leavitt QB · LSU	#89	5 lower
98.3	Anthony Smith DL · Minnesota	#94	4 lower
98.4	Luke Montgomery OG · Ohio State	#101	3 higher
98.6	John Henry Daley EDGE · Michigan	#86	13 lower
98.7	Christian Alliegro LB · Ohio State	#97	2 lower
99.5	Suntarine Perkins OLB · Ole Miss	#96	4 lower
100.4	Whit Weeks LB · LSU	#98	2 lower
101.0	Kingston Lopa S · California	#101	agrees
101.7	Isaac Brown RB · Louisville	#92	10 lower
103.2	C.J. Blocker CB · Colorado State	#103	agrees
103.4	Wendell Gregory EDGE · Kansas State	#90	13 lower
104.0	Braelin Moore OC · LSU	#104	agrees

Be a GM trends

From 12,515 Be a GM offseasons: $5.9M of cap freed, 1.0 cuts and 1.4 signings a session.

Most cut

Brandon Aiyuk WR · SFsaves $3.5M

Luke Farrell TE · SFcosts $2.5M

Grady Jarrett DT · CHIsaves $12.3M

Dayo Odeyingbo DE · CHIsaves $12.2M

Calvin Ridley WR · TENsaves $14.2M

Dan Moore Jr. T · TENsaves $4.8M

Brandon Stephens CB · NYJsaves $6.6M

Chauncey Golston DE · NYGsaves $2.7M

Most signed in free agency

Joey Bosa EDGE · BUF$12.1M/yr

Tyreek Hill WR · MIA$13.4M/yr

Puka Nacua WR · LAR$30.6M/yr

Joey Porter Jr. CB · PIT$15.2M/yr

Marshon Lattimore CB · WAS$7.2M/yr

Bobby Wagner LB · WAS$4.2M/yr

George Pickens WR · DAL$22.6M/yr

Mekhi Becton OT · LAC$13.1M/yr

Most extended

George Pickens WR · DAL$16.7M/yr

Nick Bosa DE · SF$12.6M/yr

Brian Branch SS · DET$12.1M/yr

Sam LaPorta TE · DET$11.2M/yr

Fred Warner MLB · SF$9.7M/yr

George Kittle TE · SF$4.7M/yr

Christian McCaffrey RB · SF$3.9M/yr

Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF$9.3M/yr

Questions

Who do fans take first overall in 2027 mock drafts?: Jeremiah Smith, in 73% of the fan mock drafts that reached pick one.
Where does this data come from?: Every mock draft run on the StickToTheModel simulator, counted nightly. Fan picks are the picks users made for their own team; the sims are full drafts with all 32 teams drafting.
How is the chance a player is still there worked out?: From the simulated drafts: the share of sims that took him before that pick, taken away from 100.

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