Betting HQ · Week 10
What every starter is worth
How many points our line moves if a starter sits: how well he played last season, against the backup who would replace him. A star behind a good backup is worth little. A good player with nobody behind him is worth a lot.
Out this week, and what it costs
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
1.2points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
Kendrick Bourne
ARI · WRIR this weekModel Score 71 last season. Next man up Harrison Wallace III, 66.
ARI · WRIR this weekModel Score 71 last season. Next man up Harrison Wallace III, 66.0.3points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
Brandon Dorlus
ATL · D-lineModel Score 75. Next man up James Pearce Jr. (78) rates as well or better.
ATL · D-lineModel Score 75. Next man up James Pearce Jr. (78) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
Samson EbukamATL · EdgeIR this weekModel Score 71. Next man up James Pearce Jr. (78) rates as well or better.
ATL · EdgeIR this weekModel Score 71. Next man up James Pearce Jr. (78) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
Gervon Dexter Sr.ATL · D-lineModel Score 85 last season. Next man up a replacement-level backup, 66.
ATL · D-lineModel Score 85 last season. Next man up a replacement-level backup, 66.1.2points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
1.4points if he sits
1.9points if he sits
1.1points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
1.0points if he sits
1.3points if he sits
1.0points if he sits
1.1points if he sits
1.0points if he sits
Tavius Robinson
BAL · EdgeIR this weekModel Score 68. Next man up Mike Green (72) rates as well or better.
BAL · EdgeIR this weekModel Score 68. Next man up Mike Green (72) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
Jaylinn HawkinsBAL · SafetyOut this weekModel Score 74 last season. Next man up Jahquez Robinson, 70.
BAL · SafetyOut this weekModel Score 74 last season. Next man up Jahquez Robinson, 70.0.3points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
1.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
1.1points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
O'Cyrus Torrence
BUF · Guard/CModel Score 76. Next man up Austin Corbett (85) rates as well or better.
BUF · Guard/CModel Score 76. Next man up Austin Corbett (85) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
Mike Jackson
CAR · CBIR this weekModel Score 93 last season. Next man up Malcolm DeWalt IV, 68.
CAR · CBIR this weekModel Score 93 last season. Next man up Malcolm DeWalt IV, 68.1.6points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
Bobby Brown IIICAR · D-lineModel Score 65. Next man up Tershawn Wharton (72) rates as well or better.
CAR · D-lineModel Score 65. Next man up Tershawn Wharton (72) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
Damien LewisCAR · Guard/COut this weekModel Score 87 last season. Next man up Sam Hecht, 69.
CAR · Guard/COut this weekModel Score 87 last season. Next man up Sam Hecht, 69.1.1points if he sits
Bobby OkerekeCAR · LBOut this weekModel Score 85 last season. Next man up Tyrel Dodson, 75.
CAR · LBOut this weekModel Score 85 last season. Next man up Tyrel Dodson, 75.0.7points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
Tre'von MoehrigCAR · SafetyModel Score 92 last season. Next man up Lathan Ransom, 76.
CAR · SafetyModel Score 92 last season. Next man up Lathan Ransom, 76.1.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
Xavier LegetteCAR · WRIR this weekModel Score 69. Next man up Brycen Tremayne (69) rates as well or better.
CAR · WRIR this weekModel Score 69. Next man up Brycen Tremayne (69) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
1.8points if he sits
1.1points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
Maliek Collins
CLE · D-lineOut this weekModel Score 84 last season. Next man up Mike Hall Jr., 70.
CLE · D-lineOut this weekModel Score 84 last season. Next man up Mike Hall Jr., 70.0.9points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
1.0points if he sits
1.3points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
1.0points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
Otito Ogbonnia
DAL · D-lineModel Score 65. Next man up a replacement-level backup (66) rates as well or better.
DAL · D-lineModel Score 65. Next man up a replacement-level backup (66) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
DeMarvion OvershownDAL · LBOut this weekModel Score 73. Next man up Shemar James (75) rates as well or better.
DAL · LBOut this weekModel Score 73. Next man up Shemar James (75) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
1.2points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
1.4points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
1.7points if he sits
1.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
1.9points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
1.1points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
Sean Rhyan
GB · Guard/COut this weekModel Score 68. Next man up Kevin Zeitler (99) rates as well or better.
GB · Guard/COut this weekModel Score 68. Next man up Kevin Zeitler (99) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
1.1points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
Jayden ReedGB · WRIR this weekModel Score 77 last season. Next man up J. Michael Sturdivant, 66.
GB · WRIR this weekModel Score 77 last season. Next man up J. Michael Sturdivant, 66.0.7points if he sits
1.8points if he sits
1.4points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
Xavier Hutchinson
HOU · WRModel Score 67. Next man up Marvin Harrison Jr. (74) rates as well or better.
HOU · WRModel Score 67. Next man up Marvin Harrison Jr. (74) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
1.2points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
1.5points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
1.3points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
Foyesade Oluokun
JAX · LBModel Score 86 last season. Next man up Jahlani Tavai, 72.
JAX · LBModel Score 86 last season. Next man up Jahlani Tavai, 72.0.9points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
DaVon HamiltonJAX · D-lineIR this weekModel Score 69. Next man up Ruke Orhorhoro (71) rates as well or better.
JAX · D-lineIR this weekModel Score 69. Next man up Ruke Orhorhoro (71) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
Eric MurrayJAX · SafetyIR this weekModel Score 70. Next man up Jalen Huskey (70) rates as well or better.
JAX · SafetyIR this weekModel Score 70. Next man up Jalen Huskey (70) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
1.7points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
Kingsley Suamataia
KC · Guard/CModel Score 70. Next man up Hunter Nourzad (69) rates as well or better.
KC · Guard/CModel Score 70. Next man up Hunter Nourzad (69) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
Jamaree Caldwell
LAC · D-lineModel Score 69. Next man up Dalvin Tomlinson (75) rates as well or better.
LAC · D-lineModel Score 69. Next man up Dalvin Tomlinson (75) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
1.5points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
Tre' HarrisLAC · WRModel Score 70 last season. Next man up KeAndre Lambert-Smith, 67.
LAC · WRModel Score 70 last season. Next man up KeAndre Lambert-Smith, 67.0.2points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
Quentin Lake
LA · SafetyModel Score 73. Next man up Emmanuel Forbes Jr. (72) rates as well or better.
LA · SafetyModel Score 73. Next man up Emmanuel Forbes Jr. (72) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
Kobie TurnerLA · D-lineIR this weekModel Score 88. Next man up Myles Garrett (99) rates as well or better.
LA · D-lineIR this weekModel Score 88. Next man up Myles Garrett (99) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
1.6points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
DJ Glaze
LV · TackleModel Score 72. Next man up Trey Zuhn III (73) rates as well or better.
LV · TackleModel Score 72. Next man up Trey Zuhn III (73) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
1.2points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
1.1points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
Jonah Savaiinaea
MIA · Guard/CModel Score 68. Next man up Caedan Wallace (69) rates as well or better.
MIA · Guard/CModel Score 68. Next man up Caedan Wallace (69) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
Dante Trader Jr.MIA · SafetyModel Score 68. Next man up Michael Taaffe (70) rates as well or better.
MIA · SafetyModel Score 68. Next man up Michael Taaffe (70) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
Levi Drake Rodriguez
MIN · D-lineModel Score 71. Next man up Kyle Van Noy (74) rates as well or better.
MIN · D-lineModel Score 71. Next man up Kyle Van Noy (74) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
Donovan JacksonMIN · Guard/CIR this weekModel Score 70 last season. Next man up Joe Huber, 69.
MIN · Guard/CIR this weekModel Score 70 last season. Next man up Joe Huber, 69.0.1points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
1.1points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
Joshua MetellusMIN · SafetyModel Score 77 last season. Next man up Jacob Thomas, 70.
MIN · SafetyModel Score 77 last season. Next man up Jacob Thomas, 70.0.5points if he sits
Harrison SmithMIN · SafetyModel Score 90 last season. Next man up Jacob Thomas, 70.
MIN · SafetyModel Score 90 last season. Next man up Jacob Thomas, 70.1.3points if he sits
1.5points if he sits
Jauan JenningsMIN · WROut this weekModel Score 76 last season. Next man up Myles Price, 66.
MIN · WROut this weekModel Score 76 last season. Next man up Myles Price, 66.0.6points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
1.0points if he sits
Christian Barmore
NE · D-lineModel Score 80. Next man up Harold Landry III (83) rates as well or better.
NE · D-lineModel Score 80. Next man up Harold Landry III (83) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
Milton WilliamsNE · D-lineModel Score 77. Next man up Harold Landry III (83) rates as well or better.
NE · D-lineModel Score 77. Next man up Harold Landry III (83) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
Cameron Jordan
NO · EdgeModel Score 77. Next man up Bryan Bresee (80) rates as well or better.
NO · EdgeModel Score 77. Next man up Bryan Bresee (80) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
Dru Phillips
NYG · CBModel Score 71. Next man up Paulson Adebo (77) rates as well or better.
NYG · CBModel Score 71. Next man up Paulson Adebo (77) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
DJ ReaderNYG · D-lineModel Score 73 last season. Next man up a replacement-level backup, 66.
NYG · D-lineModel Score 73 last season. Next man up a replacement-level backup, 66.0.4points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
John Michael Schmitz Jr.NYG · Guard/CModel Score 69. Next man up Bryan Hudson (69) rates as well or better.
NYG · Guard/CModel Score 69. Next man up Bryan Hudson (69) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
Azareye'h Thomas
NYJ · CBModel Score 72 last season. Next man up D'Angelo Ponds, 68.
NYJ · CBModel Score 72 last season. Next man up D'Angelo Ponds, 68.0.2points if he sits
Kingsley EnagbareNYJ · EdgeModel Score 69. Next man up Will McDonald IV (81) rates as well or better.
NYJ · EdgeModel Score 69. Next man up Will McDonald IV (81) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
Kiko MauigoaNYJ · LBIR this weekModel Score 74. Next man up Will McDonald IV (81) rates as well or better.
NYJ · LBIR this weekModel Score 74. Next man up Will McDonald IV (81) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
T'Vondre SweatNYJ · D-lineIR this weekModel Score 71. Next man up David Onyemata (78) rates as well or better.
NYJ · D-lineIR this weekModel Score 71. Next man up David Onyemata (78) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
Harrison PhillipsNYJ · D-lineModel Score 71. Next man up David Onyemata (78) rates as well or better.
NYJ · D-lineModel Score 71. Next man up David Onyemata (78) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
1.0points if he sits
Olu FashanuNYJ · TackleModel Score 76 last season. Next man up Chukwuma Okorafor, 73.
NYJ · TackleModel Score 76 last season. Next man up Chukwuma Okorafor, 73.0.2points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
1.5points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
1.4points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
Rayshawn Jenkins
PIT · SafetyModel Score 75. Next man up DeShon Elliott (77) rates as well or better.
PIT · SafetyModel Score 75. Next man up DeShon Elliott (77) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
Roman WilsonPIT · WRIR this weekModel Score 67. Next man up Germie Bernard (66) rates as well or better.
PIT · WRIR this weekModel Score 67. Next man up Germie Bernard (66) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
1.0points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
Leonard Williams
SEA · D-lineOut this weekModel Score 96 last season. Next man up Dante Fowler Jr., 75.
SEA · D-lineOut this weekModel Score 96 last season. Next man up Dante Fowler Jr., 75.1.4points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
1.4points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.4points if he sits
1.2points if he sits
0.6points if he sits
1.6points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.5points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
0.7points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
John Franklin-Myers
TEN · D-lineModel Score 79. Next man up Cody Barton (84) rates as well or better.
TEN · D-lineModel Score 79. Next man up Cody Barton (84) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
1.0points if he sits
Jordan ElliottTEN · D-lineModel Score 66. Next man up John Franklin-Myers (79) rates as well or better.
TEN · D-lineModel Score 66. Next man up John Franklin-Myers (79) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.8points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
JC LathamTEN · TackleModel Score 72. Next man up James Hudson III (73) rates as well or better.
TEN · TackleModel Score 72. Next man up James Hudson III (73) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
0.2points if he sits
0.0points if he sits
Javon Kinlaw
WAS · D-lineIR this weekModel Score 72. Next man up K'Lavon Chaisson (75) rates as well or better.
WAS · D-lineIR this weekModel Score 72. Next man up K'Lavon Chaisson (75) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
Dorance ArmstrongWAS · EdgeModel Score 75. Next man up K'Lavon Chaisson (75) rates as well or better.
WAS · EdgeModel Score 75. Next man up K'Lavon Chaisson (75) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
1.0points if he sits
0.1points if he sits
Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS · RBIR this weekModel Score 78. Next man up Rachaad White (86) rates as well or better.
WAS · RBIR this weekModel Score 78. Next man up Rachaad White (86) rates as well or better.0.0points if he sits
0.3points if he sits
0.9points if he sits
Kyler MurrayMIN · QBOut this weekOur QB rating: tier 4 of 8 (1 is best). Next man up Carson Wentz, tier 4.
MIN · QBOut this weekOur QB rating: tier 4 of 8 (1 is best). Next man up Carson Wentz, tier 4.2.3points if he sits
5.2points if he sits
Lamar JacksonBAL · QBIR this weekOur QB rating: tier 1 of 8 (1 is best). Next man up Jacoby Brissett, tier 5.
BAL · QBIR this weekOur QB rating: tier 1 of 8 (1 is best). Next man up Jacoby Brissett, tier 5.4.5points if he sits
1.7points if he sits
6.0points if he sits
2.3points if he sits
4.5points if he sits
3.1points if he sits
Jacoby BrissettARI · QBNot starting this weekOur QB rating: tier 5 of 8 (1 is best). Next man up Gardner Minshew II, tier 6.
ARI · QBNot starting this weekOur QB rating: tier 5 of 8 (1 is best). Next man up Gardner Minshew II, tier 6.2.9points if he sits
Matthew StaffordLA · QBOur QB rating: tier 3 of 8 (1 is best). Next man up Stetson Bennett IV, tier 6.
LA · QBOur QB rating: tier 3 of 8 (1 is best). Next man up Stetson Bennett IV, tier 6.3.9points if he sits
3.4points if he sits
Michael Penix Jr.ATL · QBOur QB rating: tier 6 of 8 (1 is best). Next man up Tua Tagovailoa, tier 3.
ATL · QBOur QB rating: tier 6 of 8 (1 is best). Next man up Tua Tagovailoa, tier 3.0.7points if he sits
4.5points if he sits
Deshaun WatsonCLE · QBOut this weekOur QB rating: tier 6 of 8 (1 is best). Next man up Shedeur Sanders, tier 8.
CLE · QBOut this weekOur QB rating: tier 6 of 8 (1 is best). Next man up Shedeur Sanders, tier 8.3.7points if he sits
4.6points if he sits
4.9points if he sits
Daniel Jones
IND · QBOur QB rating: tier 6 of 8 (1 is best). Next man up Anthony Richardson Sr., tier 6.
IND · QBOur QB rating: tier 6 of 8 (1 is best). Next man up Anthony Richardson Sr., tier 6.2.5points if he sits
1.7points if he sits
2.7points if he sits
3.1points if he sits
4.3points if he sits
1.9points if he sits
4.7points if he sits
5.0points if he sits
5.4points if he sits
Jameis WinstonNYG · QBNot starting this weekOur QB rating: tier 8 of 8 (1 is best). Next man up J.J. McCarthy, tier 7.
NYG · QBNot starting this weekOur QB rating: tier 8 of 8 (1 is best). Next man up J.J. McCarthy, tier 7.1.7points if he sits
1.7points if he sits
Nothing fits that cut. Loosen one filter.
How it works: each starter's Model Score from last season, minus the best healthy backup at his spot, times 0.064 points per point of score, the weight our model learned from the 2009 to 2025 seasons. History says missing starters matter. It cannot pin one star exactly: a Justin Jefferson with a weak backup is somewhere between about 0.8 and 1.5 points. The betting market already prices most of this by kickoff. Quarterbacks use our QB ratings: the drop from starter to backup, plus what history says any QB change costs (about 2 points, more as the drop grows). A star with a weak backup reads 4 to 6 points. Vegas usually moves 6 or 7, so treat our QB numbers as the low end.
How have teams done without their starting QB? Teams without their starting qb in the Angle Finder →