College Football Playoff Predictor 2026
Who makes the 12-team playoff? Here is our projected field and bracket today, plus every contender's odds. Disagree? Pick every game yourself.
Projected 12-team field
| Seed | Team | Conf | How in |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Indiana5-0 now, 12-0 projected | Big Ten | At-large |
| 2 |  Texas Tech5-0 now, 12-0 projected | Big 12 | Big 12 champ |
| 3 |  Notre Dame5-0 now, 12-0 projected | Independent | At-large |
| 4 |  Utah4-0 now, 12-0 projected | Big 12 | At-large |
| 5 |  Miami5-0 now, 11-1 projected | ACC | ACC champ |
| 6 |  Georgia5-0 now, 11-1 projected | SEC | SEC champ |
| 7 |  Texas4-0 now, 11-1 projected | SEC | At-large |
| 8 | Ohio State4-1 now, 10-2 projected | Big Ten | Big Ten champ |
| 9 |  Oregon3-1 now, 10-2 projected | Big Ten | At-large |
| 10 |  Alabama5-0 now, 10-2 projected | SEC | At-large |
| 11 |  BYU4-0 now, 10-2 projected | Big 12 | At-large |
| 12 |  South Florida4-1 now | American Athletic | Group of 5 bid |
Projected bracket
Ohio State10-2Oregon10-2Miami11-1South FloridaGeorgia11-1BYU10-2Texas11-1Alabama10-2Indiana12-0Ohio State10-2Texas Tech12-0Texas11-1Notre Dame12-0Georgia11-1Utah12-0Miami11-1Miami11-1Ohio State10-2Texas Tech12-0Notre Dame12-0Texas Tech12-0Ohio State10-2Projected conference title games
SEC title game
Georgia8-1 in confTexas8-1 in confBig Ten title game
Indiana9-0 in confOhio State8-1 in confBig 12 title game
Texas Tech9-0 in confUtah9-0 in confACC title game
Miami9-0 in conf
SMU8-1 in confCollege Football Playoff odds
| Team | Conf | Make playoff | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech5-0 | Big 12 | 97% | 16% |
| Notre Dame5-0 | Independent | 96% | 14% |
| Miami5-0 | ACC | 95% | 11% |
| Indiana5-0 | Big Ten | 92% | 18% |
| Utah4-0 | Big 12 | 82% | 7% |
| Georgia5-0 | SEC | 78% | 5% |
| Ohio State4-1 | Big Ten | 69% | 13% |
| Oregon3-1 | Big Ten | 58% | 6% |
| Alabama5-0 | SEC | 56% | 2% |
| BYU4-0 | Big 12 | 53% | 2% |
 Iowa4-1 | Big Ten | 35% | 1% |
| Texas4-0 | SEC | 34% | <1% |
 USC5-1 | Big Ten | 34% | 1% |
| SMU4-1 | ACC | 31% | <1% |
 Pittsburgh5-0 | ACC | 30% | <1% |
 Ole Miss3-1 | SEC | 28% | 1% |
 Texas A&M3-2 | SEC | 13% | <1% |
 Tennessee4-1 | SEC | 10% | <1% |
 Arizona4-1 | Big 12 | 9% | <1% |
 Duke4-0 | ACC | 9% | 0% |
 Houston4-1 | Big 12 | 8% | <1% |
 Vanderbilt3-2 | SEC | 7% | <1% |
 Kansas State3-1 | Big 12 | 7% | <1% |
 Washington3-2 | Big Ten | 7% | <1% |
 LSU4-1 | SEC | 6% | 0% |
South Florida holds the Group of 5 bid in every simulation: the predictor gives it to the top-rated Group of 5 team rather than playing out those leagues.
Questions
What is a college football playoff predictor?
A tool that plays out the rest of the season and tells you who makes the 12-team College Football Playoff. Ours locks every game already played to its real score, then lets you pick the winner of every game left. Standings, conference title games, seeds and the full bracket rebuild with each pick.
Who is projected to make the 2026 College Football Playoff?
As of October 8, our projected field is 1 Indiana, 2 Texas Tech, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Utah, 5 Miami, 6 Georgia, 7 Texas, 8 Ohio State, 9 Oregon, 10 Alabama, 11 BYU, 12 South Florida. The first teams out are Vanderbilt, SMU, Pittsburgh, USC.
Who is projected to win the 2026 national championship?
If the better team wins every game from here, Ohio State beats Texas Tech in the title game. Across 4,000 simulated seasons, Indiana wins it most often (18%).
How does the 12-team College Football Playoff work?
Twelve teams get in. The five highest-ranked conference champions earn automatic bids and the next seven best teams get at-large spots. Teams are seeded 1 to 12 by ranking, the top four get a bye, and seeds 5 through 12 play a first-round game on the higher seed's campus. Quarterfinals and semifinals are bowl games, then the national championship.
How are teams ranked without the committee?
Record comes first and team strength adjusts it. A team rating about 24 points better is worth one loss, so a 10-2 team from a strong program sits level with an 11-1 average one. That is close to how the committee has ranked teams.
How often does the predictor update?
Final scores are pulled every morning during the season, so the projection and the odds move after each week's games.
Can I pick the games myself?
Yes. The free Playoff Machine at sticktothemodel.com/college/playoffs lets you pick every remaining game or sim the season, then share your bracket with a link.
Team ratings are our own power ratings, not a betting line. The Group of 5 bid goes to the top-rated Group of 5 team (South Florida), since those leagues are not played out. Most likely to make it: Texas Tech.