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Week 9 · Saturday, October 31 · 12:45 PM ET

Auburn at Ole Miss

Ole Miss -11.5At Ole Miss · SEC
Total 55.5
The story

The script. The market has Ole Miss by 11.5 at a total of 55.5: Ole Miss 33.5, Auburn 22 on paper. Ole Miss ahead means Lacy carries it late; Auburn chasing means Brown throws, and Singleton and Nimrod get the volume.

How it plays. The total of 55.5 is ordinary for college. Conference play.

What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.

The read

Ole Miss is favored by 11.5 at home against Auburn, and the total is 55.5. Our number has Ole Miss by 13.8, so the lean is Ole Miss -11.5. A lean, not a play.

Spread
Ole Miss -11.5
Auburn +11.5
Total
55.5
Over and under
Moneyline
Ole Miss -425
Auburn +330

Our number vs the market

The lean
Ole Miss -11.5
A lean, not a play
Our number
Ole Miss by 13.8
Market has Ole Miss -11.5
Gap
2.3 pts
Between our number and the market

College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.

The card

Over 53.5 (-110)Watching · 0 units
Our total 57.0 against the 53.5 opener, 3.5 points over it; totals are on probation: 34-35 at the opener this season, under break-even · one kind, a read: a rule · take the over at 53.5 or lower · Our Sunday total off the opening total, the side it points at: B 4+ points any week, C 3-4 points from week 6. Tuned on 2014-2020; 2021-25 at the opener 57% at 4+ points, 57% at 3-4 from week 6. This season at the opener: 34-35. · stamped 2026-10-25

Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.

Where the money is

Bets is the share of tickets; money is the share of dollars. When the money runs well ahead of the bets, fewer people are betting bigger on that side, the move bettors call sharp money.

Spread

Auburn+13.5-13.5Ole Miss
Bets50%50%
Money97%3%

Auburn: 50% of the bets, 97% of the money. Fewer people, betting bigger.

Since 2018: when the money ran 20 or more points ahead of the bets on a side, the money side covered 50.4% (532-524-14, 1,070 games). No better than a coin flip.

Moneyline

Auburn+400-535Ole Miss
Bets17%83%
Money87%13%

83% of the bets are on Ole Miss, but 87% of the money is on Auburn.

Bets and money splits via DraftKings, as of Sun 6:50 PM ET. One book's customers, not the whole market.

Who carries it
Auburn
  • QB Byrum Brown 207 passing yards a game in 5 games
  • RB Jeremiah Cobb 45 rushing yards a game in 5 games, 79 last season
  • RB Bryson Washington 18 rushing yards a game in 4 games
  • WR Keshaun Singleton 62 receiving yards a game in 5 games
  • WR Chas Nimrod 55 receiving yards a game in 5 games
  • WR Jeremiah Koger 36 receiving yards a game in 5 games
Ole Miss
  • QB Trinidad Chambliss 284 passing yards a game in 5 games, 278 last season
  • RB Kewan Lacy 58 rushing yards a game in 4 games, 107 last season
  • RB Makhi Frazier 38 rushing yards a game in 4 games
  • WR Deuce Alexander 101 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 47 last season
  • WR Traylon Ray 46 receiving yards a game in 5 games
  • WR Horatio Fields 38 receiving yards a game in 5 games

From the game logs, this season first. College has no published depth chart or injury report; these are the players who actually carried it.

The game plan
Auburn with the ball

What they like to do. Auburn are middle of the country in how they play.

Where they win and lose. They protect the football (5th) and they never hit a deep one (5th-worst) and get sacked (5th-worst).

What the Ole Miss defense brings. They keep it in front (18th) and they give up the run (15th-worst).

What works against them. Keep it in front: they do not hit deep shots (5th-worst). Bring pressure: they take sacks (5th-worst).

Where the two meet. Auburn never hit a deep one (5th-worst); Ole Miss keep it in front (18th). Edge Ole Miss.

Ole Miss with the ball

What they like to do. Ole Miss play fast (9th).

Where they win and lose. They hit explosive passes (9th), protect the quarterback (10th) and protect the football (13th).

What the Auburn defense brings. They shut the run down (2nd).

What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.

Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.

From every play of the 2025 season, ranked against the 138 FBS teams. College has no blitz or coverage charting yet, so the plan reads strengths against weaknesses.

Head to head since 2013

Ole Miss 3-8 in the series over these 11 games.

2023-10-21Ole Miss 28 at Auburn 21Ole Miss covered, Auburn +6.5
2022-10-15Auburn 34 at Ole Miss 48Auburn covered, Ole Miss -15.5
2021-10-30Ole Miss 20 at Auburn 31Auburn covered, Auburn -3
2020-10-24Auburn 35 at Ole Miss 28Auburn covered, Ole Miss +3.5
2019-11-02Ole Miss 14 at Auburn 20Ole Miss covered, Auburn -17.5
2018-10-20Auburn 31 at Ole Miss 16Auburn covered, Ole Miss +5
2017-10-07Ole Miss 23 at Auburn 44push
2016-10-29Auburn 40 at Ole Miss 29Auburn covered, Ole Miss +4
Auburn →Ole Miss →
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