Baylor at 
UCF
Total 48.5
The script. The market has UCF by 2.5 at a total of 48.5: UCF 25.5, Baylor 23 on paper. Close on paper: Jenkins and Lagway both throw, and the backs carry it on whichever side gets ahead.
How it plays. The total of 48.5 is ordinary for college. Conference play.
What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.
UCF is favored by 2.5 at home against Baylor, and the total is 48.5. Our number has Baylor by 0.9, so the lean is Baylor +2.5. A lean, not a play.
Our number vs the market
College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.
The card
Nothing on the college card for this game yet.
Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.
Bets is the share of tickets; money is the share of dollars. When the money runs well ahead of the bets, fewer people are betting bigger on that side, the move bettors call sharp money.
Spread
Baylor+2.5-2.5UCFBaylor: 50% of the bets, 60% of the money. Fewer people, betting bigger.
Since 2018: when the money ran 10 or more points ahead of the bets on a side, the money side covered 50.9% (1226-1184-31, 2,441 games). No better than a coin flip.
Bets and money splits via DraftKings, as of Sun 6:50 PM ET. One book's customers, not the whole market.
Baylor- QB DJ Lagway 287 passing yards a game in 3 games
- RB Dawson Pendergrass 63 rushing yards a game in 5 games
- RB Caden Knighten 48 rushing yards a game in 5 games, 38 last season
- WR Gavin Freeman 96 receiving yards a game in 5 games
- WR Louis Brown 51 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 24 last season
- WR Jayden McGowan 49 receiving yards a game in 4 games
UCF- QB Keyone Jenkins 161 passing yards a game in 5 games
- RB Duke Watson 80 rushing yards a game in 6 games
- RB Taevion Swint 27 rushing yards a game in 6 games
- WR Joshua Derry 51 receiving yards a game in 6 games
- WR Waden Charles 40 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 24 last season
- WR Ric'Darious Farmer 24 receiving yards a game in 6 games
Baylor with the ballWhat they like to do. Baylor play fast (3rd) and pass on early downs (7th).
Where they win and lose. Middle of the country on both sides of the ledger.
What the UCF defense brings. They shut the pass down (6th).
What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
UCF with the ballWhat they like to do. UCF are middle of the country in how they play.
Where they win and lose. Middle of the country on both sides of the ledger.
What the Baylor defense brings. They cannot get a sack (5th-worst).
What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
UCF 3 at Baylor 30Baylor covered, Baylor -3Baylor 36 at UCF 35Baylor covered, UCF -11.5UCF 52 at Baylor 42UCF covered, Baylor -16.5