Jacksonville State at 
New Mexico State
Total 50.5
The script. The market has Jacksonville State by 3 at a total of 50.5: Jacksonville State 26.8, New Mexico State 23.8 on paper. Jacksonville State ahead means Likely carries it late; New Mexico State chasing means Hedden throws, and King and Williams get the volume.
How it plays. The total of 50.5 is ordinary for college. Conference play.
What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.
Jacksonville State is favored by 3 on the road against New Mexico State, and the total is 50.5.
Our number vs the market
No lean here. Our number and the market are close enough that there is nothing to say, and we do not manufacture one.
The card
Nothing on the college card for this game yet.
Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.
Jacksonville State- QB Caden Creel 237 passing yards a game in 6 games, 117 last season
- RB Jalen Likely 39 rushing yards a game in 5 games, 17 last season
- RB Lucas Farrington 33 rushing yards a game in 5 games, 14 last season
- WR Deondre Johnson 56 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 56 last season
- WR Jamill Williams 48 receiving yards a game in 5 games
- WR Darius Cannon 28 receiving yards a game in 6 games
New Mexico State- QB Trey Hedden 179 passing yards a game in 5 games
- RB James Jones 98 rushing yards a game in 6 games
- RB Jalen Brown 17 rushing yards a game in 4 games
- WR Tyler King 46 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 74 last season
- WR AJ Williams III 32 receiving yards a game in 6 games
- WR Terrione Graves 46 receiving yards a game in 3 games, 5 last season
Jacksonville State with the ballWhat they like to do. Jacksonville State run it more than almost anyone (9th-lowest).
Where they win and lose. They run it well (12th) and break explosive runs (12th) and they cannot throw it (20th-worst).
What the New Mexico State defense brings. They shut the run down (16th) and they cannot get a sack (12th-worst).
What works against them. Make them throw it (20th-worst).
Where the two meet. Jacksonville State run it well (12th); New Mexico State shut the run down (16th). Strength on strength, the matchup to watch.
New Mexico State with the ballWhat they like to do. New Mexico State throw it as much as anyone (6th) and play fast (17th).
Where they win and lose. They cannot run it (7th-worst), never break a long run (9th-worst) and cannot move the ball (22nd-worst).
What the Jacksonville State defense brings. A middle-of-the-country defense.
What works against them. Make them run it (7th-worst). Load the box: they do not break long runs (9th-worst). Make them drive the length of the field (22nd-worst).
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
New Mexico State 13 at Jacksonville State 54Jacksonville State covered, Jacksonville State -21Jacksonville State 17 at New Mexico State 20New Mexico State covered, New Mexico State +0.2