Kennesaw State at 
Middle Tennessee
Total 48.5
The script. The market has Middle Tennessee by 2.5 at a total of 48.5: Middle Tennessee 25.5, Kennesaw State 23 on paper. Close on paper: Gagliano and Collins both throw, and the backs carry it on whichever side gets ahead.
How it plays. The total of 48.5 is ordinary for college. Conference play.
What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.
Middle Tennessee is favored by 2.5 at home against Kennesaw State, and the total is 48.5. Our number has Middle Tennessee by 0.5, so the lean is Kennesaw State +2.5. A lean, not a play.
Our number vs the market
College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.
The card
Nothing on the college card for this game yet.
Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.
Kennesaw State- QB Rickie Collins 206 passing yards a game in 5 games
- RB Latrelle Murrell 33 rushing yards a game in 5 games
- RB Triston Morgan 21 rushing yards a game in 5 games
- WR Brayden Munroe 52 receiving yards a game in 5 games
- WR Javon Rogers 46 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 34 last season
- WR Zion Booker 54 receiving yards a game in 3 games
Middle Tennessee- QB Roman Gagliano 180 passing yards a game in 5 games, 206 last season
- RB DJ Taylor 8 rushing yards a game in 3 games, 34 last season
- RB Brooklen Davis 12 rushing yards a game in 2 games
- WR Cam'Ron Lacy 67 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 46 last season
- WR Markus Allen 28 receiving yards a game in 5 games
- WR Neo Clifton 20 receiving yards a game in 5 games
Kennesaw State with the ballWhat they like to do. Kennesaw State are middle of the country in how they play.
Where they win and lose. They hit explosive passes (24th).
What the Middle Tennessee defense brings. They give up the pass (11th-worst) and give up the deep ball (15th-worst).
What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.
Where the two meet. Kennesaw State hit explosive passes (24th); Middle Tennessee give up the deep ball (15th-worst). Edge Kennesaw State.
Middle Tennessee with the ballWhat they like to do. Middle Tennessee throw it as much as anyone (1st).
Where they win and lose. They protect the football (10th).
What the Kennesaw State defense brings. A middle-of-the-country defense.
What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
Middle Tennessee 16 at Kennesaw State 24Kennesaw State covered, Kennesaw State -7Kennesaw State 5 at Middle Tennessee 14Middle Tennessee covered, Middle Tennessee -8.5