Kent State at 
Sacramento State
Total 46.5
The script. The market has Kent State by 10 at a total of 46.5: Kent State 28.2, Sacramento State 18.2 on paper. Kent State ahead means King carries it late; Sacramento State chasing means Sharman throws, and Coleman and Smith get the volume.
How it plays. The total of 46.5 is ordinary for college. Conference play.
What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.
Kent State is favored by 10 on the road against Sacramento State, and the total is 46.5. Our number has Kent State by 0.3, so the lean is Sacramento State +10. A lean, not a play.
Our number vs the market
College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.
The card
Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.
Bets is the share of tickets; money is the share of dollars. When the money runs well ahead of the bets, fewer people are betting bigger on that side, the move bettors call sharp money.
Spread
Kent State-11.5+11.5Sacramento StateKent State: 67% of the bets, 96% of the money. Fewer people, betting bigger.
Since 2018: when the money ran 20 or more points ahead of the bets on a side, the money side covered 50.4% (532-524-14, 1,070 games). No better than a coin flip.
Bets and money splits via DraftKings, as of Sun 6:50 PM ET. One book's customers, not the whole market.
Kent State- QB Dru DeShields 162 passing yards a game in 6 games, 187 last season
- RB Mason King 34 rushing yards a game in 6 games
- RB Brandon White 26 rushing yards a game in 6 games
- WR Wayne Harris 57 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 33 last season
- WR Da'Realyst Clark 42 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 18 last season
- WR Ardell Banks 33 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 19 last season
Sacramento State- QB Jackson Sharman 198 passing yards a game in 5 games
- RB Daniel Swinney 37 rushing yards a game in 5 games
- RB Isaiah Ene 30 rushing yards a game in 6 games
- WR Matthew Coleman 76 receiving yards a game in 6 games
- WR Onterrio Smith Jr. 43 receiving yards a game in 6 games
- WR Raiden Brown 25 receiving yards a game in 6 games
Kent State with the ballWhat they like to do. Kent State play slow (slowest).
Where they win and lose. They cannot run it (2nd-worst) and never break a long run (2nd-worst).
What the Sacramento State defense brings. They get sacks (2nd) and take the ball away (19th) and they give up the run (23rd-worst).
What works against them. Make them run it (2nd-worst). Load the box: they do not break long runs (2nd-worst).
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
Sacramento State with the ballWhat they like to do. Sacramento State run it more than almost anyone (5th-lowest).
Where they win and lose. They hit explosive passes (4th) and run it well (6th) and they get sacked (6th-worst).
What the Kent State defense brings. They never take it away (15th-worst).
What works against them. Bring pressure: they take sacks (6th-worst).
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.