Michigan at 
Rutgers
Total 47.5
The script. The market has Michigan by 14 at a total of 47.5: Michigan 30.8, Rutgers 16.8 on paper. Michigan ahead means Marshall carries it late; Rutgers chasing means Lonergan throws, and Duff and Black get the volume.
How it plays. The total of 47.5 is ordinary for college. Conference play.
What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.
Michigan is favored by 14 on the road against Rutgers, and the total is 47.5. Our number has Michigan by 11.8, so the lean is Rutgers +14. A lean, not a play. Rutgers has gone over 20 of 25 at home, 2023-2026, better than the 6-12 they are everywhere else.
Our number vs the market
College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.
The card
Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.
Michigan- QB Bryce Underwood 176 passing yards a game in 5 games, 184 last season
- RB Jordan Marshall 49 rushing yards a game in 5 games, 82 last season
- RB Savion Hiter 29 rushing yards a game in 5 games
- WR JJ Buchanan 89 receiving yards a game in 5 games
- WR Andrew Marsh 54 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 65 last season
- WR Salesi Moa 8 receiving yards a game in 3 games
Rutgers- QB Dylan Lonergan 192 passing yards a game in 4 games
- RB Antwan Raymond 93 rushing yards a game in 5 games, 104 last season
- RB Clay Thevenin 36 rushing yards a game in 5 games
- WR KJ Duff 126 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 93 last season
- WR Ben Black 36 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 20 last season
- WR Jourdin Houston 34 receiving yards a game in 5 games
Michigan with the ballWhat they like to do. Michigan are middle of the country in how they play.
Where they win and lose. They run it well (16th).
What the Rutgers defense brings. They give it up (2nd-worst), give up the deep ball (9th-worst) and cannot get a sack (10th-worst).
What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
Rutgers with the ballWhat they like to do. Rutgers play fast (14th).
Where they win and lose. They protect the football (4th) and throw it well (10th) and they get sacked (11th-worst).
What the Michigan defense brings. A middle-of-the-country defense.
What works against them. Bring pressure: they take sacks (11th-worst).
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
How each team covers in this spot
MichiganRutgersAgainst the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.
Player trends that apply to this game
KJ DuffWR has 9 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ receiving yards.Antwan RaymondRB has 8 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 50+ rushing yards.The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one. Game logs through last season; this season joins the file as it is played.
Rutgers 7 at Michigan 31pushMichigan 52 at Rutgers 17Michigan covered, Rutgers +26.5Rutgers 13 at Michigan 20Rutgers covered, Michigan -20.2Michigan 48 at Rutgers 42Rutgers covered, Rutgers +12.2Rutgers 0 at Michigan 52Michigan covered, Michigan -27.5Michigan 42 at Rutgers 7Rutgers covered, Rutgers +37Rutgers 14 at Michigan 35Rutgers covered, Michigan -22.5Michigan 78 at Rutgers 0Michigan covered, Rutgers +30