Minnesota at 
Indiana
Total 43.5
The script. The market has Indiana by 20.5 at a total of 43.5: Indiana 32, Minnesota 11.5 on paper. Indiana ahead means Richard carries it late; Minnesota chasing means Lindsey throws, and Jennings and Tracy get the volume.
How it plays. The total of 43.5 is low for college. Conference play.
What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.
Indiana is favored by 20.5 at home against Minnesota, and the total is 43.5. Indiana has gone over 15 of 21 as a favorite of 14 or more, 2023-2026, better than the 13-11 they are everywhere else.
Our number vs the market
No lean here. Our number and the market are close enough that there is nothing to say, and we do not manufacture one.
The card
Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.
Minnesota- QB Drake Lindsey 217 passing yards a game in 5 games, 182 last season
- RB TJ Thomas 61 rushing yards a game in 5 games
- RB Darius Taylor 36 rushing yards a game in 4 games, 62 last season
- WR Noah Jennings 69 receiving yards a game in 5 games
- WR Javon Tracy 60 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 37 last season
- WR Jalen Smith 30 receiving yards a game in 4 games, 39 last season
Indiana- QB Josh Hoover 227 passing yards a game in 6 games
- RB Turbo Richard 100 rushing yards a game in 6 games
- RB Jayreon Campbell 17 rushing yards a game in 3 games
- WR Charlie Becker 88 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 52 last season
- WR Nick Marsh 88 receiving yards a game in 6 games
- WR Shazz Preston 25 receiving yards a game in 5 games
Minnesota with the ballWhat they like to do. Minnesota play slow (9th-slowest) and pass on early downs (18th).
Where they win and lose. They cannot run it (3rd-worst), never break a long run (11th-worst) and never hit a deep one (12th-worst).
What the Indiana defense brings. They shut offenses down (11th), take the ball away (12th) and get sacks (14th).
What works against them. Make them run it (3rd-worst). Load the box: they do not break long runs (11th-worst). Keep it in front: they do not hit deep shots (12th-worst).
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
Indiana with the ballWhat they like to do. Indiana run it more than almost anyone (17th-lowest).
Where they win and lose. They throw it well (6th), hit explosive passes (13th) and move the ball (14th).
What the Minnesota defense brings. They get sacks (5th).
What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
How each team covers in this spot
MinnesotaIndianaAgainst the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.
Player trends that apply to this game
Nick MarshWR has 9 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards.Josh HooverQB has 9 of his last 10 games at home with 2+ passing touchdowns.Turbo RichardRB has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one. Game logs through last season; this season joins the file as it is played.
Minnesota 35 at Indiana 14Minnesota covered, Indiana +7.5Indiana 31 at Minnesota 38Minnesota covered, Minnesota +2.2Minnesota 42 at Indiana 39Minnesota covered, Indiana -7.5