Mississippi State at 
Texas
Total 50.5
The script. The market has Texas by 20.5 at a total of 50.5: Texas 35.5, Mississippi State 15 on paper. Texas ahead means Smothers carries it late; Mississippi State chasing means Taylor throws, and Evans and Magee get the volume.
How it plays. The total of 50.5 is ordinary for college. Conference play.
What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.
Texas is favored by 20.5 at home against Mississippi State, and the total is 50.5. Our number has Texas by 17.2, so the lean is Mississippi State +20.5. A lean, not a play.
Our number vs the market
College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.
The card
Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.
Mississippi State- QB Kamario Taylor 290 passing yards a game in 5 games, 90 last season
- RB Fluff Bothwell 81 rushing yards a game in 5 games, 62 last season
- RB Kolin Wilson 26 rushing yards a game in 5 games, 9 last season
- WR Anthony Evans III 115 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 64 last season
- WR Sanfrisco Magee 52 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 27 last season
- WR Marquis Johnson 44 receiving yards a game in 5 games
Texas- QB Arch Manning 222 passing yards a game in 5 games, 236 last season
- RB Hollywood Smothers 59 rushing yards a game in 4 games
- RB Raleek Brown 44 rushing yards a game in 5 games
- WR Cam Coleman 61 receiving yards a game in 5 games
- WR Ryan Wingo 59 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 64 last season
- WR Emmett Mosley V 43 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 45 last season
Mississippi State with the ballWhat they like to do. Mississippi State play fast (15th).
Where they win and lose. They get sacked (7th-worst).
What the Texas defense brings. They keep it in front (14th).
What works against them. Bring pressure: they take sacks (7th-worst).
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
Texas with the ballWhat they like to do. Texas are middle of the country in how they play.
Where they win and lose. Middle of the country on both sides of the ledger.
What the Mississippi State defense brings. A middle-of-the-country defense.
What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
Player trends that apply to this game
Hollywood SmothersRB has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one. Game logs through last season; this season joins the file as it is played.
Texas 45 at Mississippi State 38Mississippi State covered, Mississippi State +8.5Mississippi State 13 at Texas 35Mississippi State covered, Texas -37