Missouri at 
Arkansas
Total 47.5
The script. The market has Missouri by 10.5 at a total of 47.5: Missouri 29, Arkansas 18.5 on paper. Missouri ahead means Roberts carries it late; Arkansas chasing means Jackson throws, and Marshall and Cisse get the volume.
How it plays. The total of 47.5 is ordinary for college. Conference play.
What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.
Missouri is favored by 10.5 on the road against Arkansas, and the total is 47.5. Our number has Missouri by 4.8, so the lean is Arkansas +10.5. A lean, not a play. Missouri has covered 9 of 12 coming off a loss, 2023-2026, better than the 16-14 they are everywhere else.
Our number vs the market
College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.
The card
Nothing on the college card for this game yet.
Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.
Missouri- QB Austin Simmons 222 passing yards a game in 6 games
- RB Jamal Roberts 128 rushing yards a game in 6 games, 58 last season
- RB Xai'Shaun Edwards 23 rushing yards a game in 6 games
- WR Cayden Lee 98 receiving yards a game in 6 games
- WR Donovan Olugbode 69 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 33 last season
- WR Shaun Terry II 32 receiving yards a game in 3 games, 9 last season
Arkansas- QB KJ Jackson 197 passing yards a game in 6 games, 88 last season
- RB Sutton Smith 27 rushing yards a game in 6 games
- RB Braylen Russell 26 rushing yards a game in 6 games, 31 last season
- WR Chris Marshall 96 receiving yards a game in 6 games
- WR Ismael Cisse 15 receiving yards a game in 6 games
- WR Jamari Hawkins 16 receiving yards a game in 5 games
Missouri with the ballWhat they like to do. Missouri run on early downs (24th-lowest).
Where they win and lose. They break explosive runs (9th) and run it well (19th) and they never hit a deep one (18th-worst).
What the Arkansas defense brings. They give up the pass (4th-worst), give up the deep ball (7th-worst) and never take it away (24th-worst).
What works against them. Keep it in front: they do not hit deep shots (18th-worst).
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
Arkansas with the ballWhat they like to do. Arkansas are middle of the country in how they play.
Where they win and lose. They run it well (1st), break explosive runs (1st) and move the ball (5th).
What the Missouri defense brings. They shut offenses down (9th), get sacks (9th) and keep it in front (12th).
What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
How each team covers in this spot
MissouriArkansasAgainst the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.
Player trends that apply to this game
Chris MarshallWR has 8 of his last 9 games at home with 50+ receiving yards.Jamal RobertsRB has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with a rushing touchdown.The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one. Game logs through last season; this season joins the file as it is played.
Missouri 31 at Arkansas 17Missouri covered, Arkansas +4.5Arkansas 21 at Missouri 28Missouri covered, Missouri -3Missouri 48 at Arkansas 14Missouri covered, Arkansas +9.5Arkansas 27 at Missouri 29Missouri covered, Missouri +3Missouri 17 at Arkansas 34Arkansas covered, Arkansas -14.5Arkansas 48 at Missouri 50Arkansas covered, Missouri -2.5Missouri 24 at Arkansas 14Arkansas covered, Arkansas +15Arkansas 0 at Missouri 38Missouri covered, Missouri -24