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Week 9 · Saturday, October 31 · 4:15 PM ET

Nevada at UCLA

UCLA -23.5At UCLA · Mountain West · Big Ten
Total 48.5
The story

The script. The market has UCLA by 23.5 at a total of 48.5: UCLA 36, Nevada 12.5 on paper. UCLA ahead means Knight carries it late; Nevada chasing means Bianco throws, and Givens and Cheers get the volume.

How it plays. The total of 48.5 is ordinary for college.

What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.

The read

UCLA is favored by 23.5 at home against Nevada, and the total is 48.5.

Spread
UCLA -23.5
Nevada +23.5
Total
48.5
Over and under
Moneyline
UCLA -2400
Nevada +1200

Our number vs the market

No lean here. Our number and the market are close enough that there is nothing to say, and we do not manufacture one.

The card

Nothing on the college card for this game yet.

Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.

Who carries it
Nevada
  • QB AJ Bianco 58 passing yards a game in 2 games, 32 last season
  • RB Dominic Kelley 86 rushing yards a game in 4 games, 8 last season
  • RB Herschel Turner 58 rushing yards a game in 4 games, 36 last season
  • WR Gary Givens III 41 receiving yards a game in 4 games
  • WR Donnie Cheers 30 receiving yards a game in 4 games
  • WR Damien Moun 37 receiving yards a game in 3 games
UCLA
  • QB Nico Iamaleava 196 passing yards a game in 5 games, 153 last season
  • RB Wayne Knight 110 rushing yards a game in 5 games
  • RB Anthony Woods 62 rushing yards a game in 5 games, 26 last season
  • WR Semaj Morgan 46 receiving yards a game in 5 games
  • WR Brian Rowe Jr. 37 receiving yards a game in 5 games
  • WR Aidan Mizell 48 receiving yards a game in 3 games

From the game logs, this season first. College has no published depth chart or injury report; these are the players who actually carried it.

The game plan
Nevada with the ball

What they like to do. Nevada play slow (6th-slowest).

Where they win and lose. They throw interceptions (worst), cannot throw it (2nd-worst) and cannot move the ball (12th-worst).

What the UCLA defense brings. They cannot get a sack (3rd-worst), never take it away (8th-worst) and give up the run (18th-worst).

What works against them. Make them throw: they give it away (worst). Make them throw it (2nd-worst). Make them drive the length of the field (12th-worst).

Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.

UCLA with the ball

What they like to do. UCLA play slow (11th-slowest).

Where they win and lose. They break explosive runs (17th) and run it well (25th) and they never hit a deep one (3rd-worst).

What the Nevada defense brings. They give up the deep ball (25th-worst).

What works against them. Keep it in front: they do not hit deep shots (3rd-worst).

Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.

From every play of the 2025 season, ranked against the 138 FBS teams. College has no blitz or coverage charting yet, so the plan reads strengths against weaknesses.

Head to head since 2013

UCLA 1-0 in the series over these 1 games.

2013-08-31Nevada 20 at UCLA 58UCLA covered, UCLA -20.5