Notre Dame at 
Navy
Total 52.5
The script. The market has Notre Dame by 30.5 at a total of 52.5: Notre Dame 41.5, Navy 11 on paper. Notre Dame ahead by three scores means Walton and the second unit carry it from the third quarter on; Navy chasing means Gutierrez throws into it, and Hutchison and Robinson get the volume while it lasts.
How it plays. The total of 52.5 is ordinary for college. A neutral field.
What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.
Notre Dame is favored by 30.5 on a neutral field against Navy, and the total is 52.5.
Our number vs the market
No lean here. Our number and the market are close enough that there is nothing to say, and we do not manufacture one.
The card
Nothing on the college card for this game yet.
Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.
Bets is the share of tickets; money is the share of dollars. When the money runs well ahead of the bets, fewer people are betting bigger on that side, the move bettors call sharp money.
Spread
Notre Dame-29.5+29.5NavyNotre Dame: 75% of the bets, 91% of the money. Fewer people, betting bigger.
Since 2018: when the money ran 15 or more points ahead of the bets on a side, the money side covered 50.7% (817-796-16, 1,629 games). No better than a coin flip.
Moneyline
Notre Dame-10000+3000NavyNavy: 18% of the bets, 35% of the money. Fewer people, betting bigger.
Bets and money splits via DraftKings, as of Sun 6:50 PM ET. One book's customers, not the whole market.
Notre Dame- QB CJ Carr 230 passing yards a game in 6 games, 210 last season
- RB Jonaz Walton 82 rushing yards a game in 5 games
- RB Aneyas Williams 49 rushing yards a game in 6 games, 45 last season
- WR Jordan Faison 64 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 53 last season
- WR Micah Gilbert 63 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 10 last season
- WR Jaden Greathouse 23 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 18 last season
Navy- QB Jackson Gutierrez 93 passing yards a game in 4 games, -3 last season
- RB Vic Listorti 37 rushing yards a game in 5 games, 17 last season
- RB Christian Cromer 4 rushing yards a game in 3 games
- WR Luke Hutchison 38 receiving yards a game in 2 games, 19 last season
- WR Charles Robinson 12 receiving yards a game in 4 games, 7 last season
- WR Michael Barrow 11 receiving yards a game in 4 games
Notre Dame with the ballWhat they like to do. Notre Dame play slow (22nd-slowest).
Where they win and lose. They break explosive runs (2nd), hit explosive passes (6th) and throw it well (13th).
What the Navy defense brings. They give up the pass (8th-worst) and give up the deep ball (23rd-worst).
What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.
Where the two meet. Notre Dame throw it well (13th); Navy give up the pass (8th-worst). Edge Notre Dame. Notre Dame hit explosive passes (6th); Navy give up the deep ball (23rd-worst). Edge Notre Dame.
Navy with the ballWhat they like to do. Navy run on early downs (2nd-lowest) and play slow (21st-slowest).
Where they win and lose. They run it well (2nd), move the ball (3rd) and hit explosive passes (8th).
What the Notre Dame defense brings. They take the ball away (2nd), get sacks (18th) and shut offenses down (25th).
What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
The last time the Notre Dame were here, Dec 28, 2013: beat the Rutgers by 13 as a 14.5-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 76 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is Notre Dame.
The last time the Notre Dame were here, Dec 28, 2013: beat the Rutgers by 13 as a 14.5-point favorite.
Inside the luck line: 33 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is Navy.
The last time the Navy were here, Nov 1, 2014: lost to the Notre Dame by 10 as a 14-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 108 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is Notre Dame.
Navy 10 at Notre Dame 49Notre Dame covered, Notre Dame -30.5Notre Dame 51 at Navy 14Notre Dame covered, Navy +14Navy 3 at Notre Dame 42Notre Dame covered, Notre Dame -20.5Notre Dame 35 at Navy 32Navy covered, Navy +17Navy 6 at Notre Dame 34Notre Dame covered, Notre Dame -21Navy 20 at Notre Dame 52Notre Dame covered, Notre Dame -7Notre Dame 44 at Navy 22pushNavy 17 at Notre Dame 24Navy covered, Notre Dame -20.5