Ohio State at 
USC
Total 52.5
The script. The market has Ohio State by 7 at a total of 52.5: Ohio State 29.8, USC 22.8 on paper. Ohio State ahead means Jackson carries it late; USC chasing means Maiava throws, and Dixon-Wyatt and Williams get the volume.
How it plays. The total of 52.5 is ordinary for college. Conference play.
What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.
Forward test. gusts 40+, under 52.5 (4-2 since it was registered).
Watch. gusts 30+, under 52.5 (24-15 since it was registered).
Watch. raining at kickoff, under 52.5 (14-7 since it was registered).
Watch. gusty wet kickoff at 65F or colder, under 52.5 (2-1 since it was registered).
Ohio State is favored by 7 on the road against USC, and the total is 52.5.
Our number vs the market
No lean here. Our number and the market are close enough that there is nothing to say, and we do not manufacture one.
The card
Nothing on the college card for this game yet.
Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.
Bets is the share of tickets; money is the share of dollars. When the money runs well ahead of the bets, fewer people are betting bigger on that side, the move bettors call sharp money.
Spread
Ohio State-7+7USC71% of the bets are on Ohio State, but 89% of the money is on USC.
Since 2018: when most of the bets sat on one side and most of the money on the other, the money side covered 50% (583-582-20, 1,185 games). No better than a coin flip.
Moneyline
Ohio State-245+200USC88% of the bets are on Ohio State, but 73% of the money is on USC.
Bets and money splits via DraftKings, as of Sun 6:50 PM ET. One book's customers, not the whole market.
Ohio State- QB Julian Sayin 295 passing yards a game in 6 games, 254 last season
- RB Bo Jackson 78 rushing yards a game in 6 games, 84 last season
- RB Ja'Kobi Jackson 59 rushing yards a game in 6 games
- WR Jeremiah Smith 153 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 98 last season
- WR Devin Mccuin 49 receiving yards a game in 5 games
- WR Chris Henry Jr. 38 receiving yards a game in 4 games
USC- QB Jayden Maiava 289 passing yards a game in 6 games, 277 last season
- RB Waymond Jordan 44 rushing yards a game in 6 games, 98 last season
- RB Shahn Alston 23 rushing yards a game in 4 games
- WR Kayden Dixon-Wyatt 62 receiving yards a game in 6 games
- WR Zach Williams 43 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 32 last season
- WR Trent Mosley 85 receiving yards a game in 3 games
Ohio State with the ballWhat they like to do. Ohio State are middle of the country in how they play.
Where they win and lose. They throw it well (4th) and move the ball (10th).
What the USC defense brings. They give up the run (13th-worst).
What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
USC with the ballWhat they like to do. USC are middle of the country in how they play.
Where they win and lose. They throw it well (1st), move the ball (2nd) and protect the quarterback (5th).
What the Ohio State defense brings. They keep it in front (1st), shut the run down (3rd) and get sacks (6th).
What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.
Where the two meet. USC protect the quarterback (5th); Ohio State get sacks (6th). Strength on strength, the matchup to watch.
Player trends that apply to this game
Jayden MaiavaQB has 8 of his last 10 games at home with 2+ passing touchdowns.The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one. Game logs through last season; this season joins the file as it is played.
USC 7 at Ohio State 24Ohio State covered, Ohio State -9.5