Troy at 
James Madison
Total 52.5
The script. The market has James Madison by 17.5 at a total of 52.5: James Madison 35, Troy 17.5 on paper. James Madison ahead means Pettaway carries it late; Troy chasing means Crowder throws, and Keyes and White get the volume.
How it plays. The total of 52.5 is ordinary for college. Conference play.
What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.
James Madison is favored by 17.5 at home against Troy, and the total is 52.5. Our number has James Madison by 21, so the lean is James Madison -17.5. A lean, not a play.
Our number vs the market
College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.
The card
Nothing on the college card for this game yet.
Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.
Troy- QB Goose Crowder 211 passing yards a game in 5 games, 164 last season
- RB Gavin Griffin 67 rushing yards a game in 5 games
- RB Jaheim Merriweather 56 rushing yards a game in 5 games
- WR TK Keyes 55 receiving yards a game in 5 games
- WR Noreel White 32 receiving yards a game in 5 games
- WR Howard Kinchen 49 receiving yards a game in 3 games
James Madison- QB Camden Coleman 193 passing yards a game in 5 games
- RB George Pettaway 98 rushing yards a game in 5 games, 21 last season
- RB Nick Herman 52 rushing yards a game in 5 games
- WR Corey Scott 58 receiving yards a game in 5 games
- WR Braeden Wisloski 35 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 27 last season
- WR Michael Scott 32 receiving yards a game in 4 games, 9 last season
Troy with the ballWhat they like to do. Troy are middle of the country in how they play.
Where they win and lose. They get sacked (2nd-worst), cannot run it (11th-worst) and cannot move the ball (14th-worst).
What the James Madison defense brings. They shut offenses down (4th), take the ball away (15th) and get sacks (25th).
What works against them. Bring pressure: they take sacks (2nd-worst). Make them run it (11th-worst). Make them drive the length of the field (14th-worst).
Where the two meet. Troy get sacked (2nd-worst); James Madison get sacks (25th). Edge James Madison.
James Madison with the ballWhat they like to do. James Madison run it more than almost anyone (18th-lowest).
Where they win and lose. They run it well (24th).
What the Troy defense brings. They get sacks (17th) and they give up the deep ball (22nd-worst).
What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
Troy 14 at James Madison 31Troy covered, James Madison -24.5James Madison 16 at Troy 14James Madison covered, Troy -2.5