Virginia at 
Wake Forest
Total 49.5
The script. The market has Wake Forest by 13.5 at a total of 49.5: Wake Forest 31.5, Virginia 18 on paper. Wake Forest ahead means Lawrence carries it late; Virginia chasing means Pribula throws, and Courtney and Martin get the volume.
How it plays. The total of 49.5 is ordinary for college. Conference play.
What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.
Wake Forest is favored by 13.5 at home against Virginia, and the total is 49.5. Our number has Wake Forest by 10.8, so the lean is Virginia +13.5. A lean, not a play. Virginia has covered 14 of 20 as an underdog, 2023-2026, better than the 11-11 they are everywhere else.
Our number vs the market
College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.
The card
Nothing on the college card for this game yet.
Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.
Virginia- QB Beau Pribula 184 passing yards a game in 5 games
- RB Jekail Middlebrook 48 rushing yards a game in 5 games
- RB Xavier Brown 33 rushing yards a game in 5 games, 35 last season
- WR Kameron Courtney 33 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 19 last season
- WR Dashawn Martin 30 receiving yards a game in 5 games
- WR Josiah Abdullah 34 receiving yards a game in 3 games, 13 last season
Wake Forest- QB Gio Lopez 254 passing yards a game in 6 games
- RB Deuce Lawrence 47 rushing yards a game in 6 games
- RB Ty Clark III 46 rushing yards a game in 6 games, 26 last season
- WR Carlos Hernandez 120 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 47 last season
- WR Jack Foley 55 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 21 last season
- WR Kameran Shanks 27 receiving yards a game in 6 games
Virginia with the ballWhat they like to do. Virginia play fast (6th).
Where they win and lose. They protect the quarterback (11th).
What the Wake Forest defense brings. They keep it in front (5th) and shut offenses down (13th) and they never take it away (7th-worst).
What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
Wake Forest with the ballWhat they like to do. Wake Forest are middle of the country in how they play.
Where they win and lose. They protect the quarterback (17th).
What the Virginia defense brings. They take the ball away (21st) and shut the pass down (22nd).
What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
How each team covers in this spot
VirginiaWake ForestAgainst the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.
Wake Forest 16 at Virginia 9Wake Forest covered, Virginia -7Virginia 31 at Wake Forest 30pushWake Forest 37 at Virginia 17Wake Forest covered, Virginia -3.5Virginia 23 at Wake Forest 40Wake Forest covered, Wake Forest -2.5Virginia 20 at Wake Forest 27Wake Forest covered, Wake Forest -2