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Week 9 · Saturday, October 31 · 8:00 PM ET

Washington at Nebraska

Nebraska -9.5At Nebraska · Big Ten
Total 49.5
The story

The script. The market has Nebraska by 9.5 at a total of 49.5: Nebraska 29.5, Washington 20 on paper. Nebraska ahead means Rule carries it late; Washington chasing means Brown throws, and Lawson and Roebuck get the volume.

How it plays. The total of 49.5 is ordinary for college. Conference play.

What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.

The read

Nebraska is favored by 9.5 at home against Washington, and the total is 49.5. Our number has Nebraska by 5, so the lean is Washington +9.5. A lean, not a play.

Spread
Nebraska -9.5
Washington +9.5
Total
49.5
Over and under
Moneyline
Nebraska -325
Washington +260

Our number vs the market

The lean
Washington +9.5
A lean, not a play
Our number
Nebraska by 5
Market has Washington +9.5
Gap
4.5 pts
Between our number and the market

College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.

The card

Nothing on the college card for this game yet.

Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.

Who carries it
Washington
  • QB Elijah Brown 138 passing yards a game in 2 games
  • RB Brian Bonner Jr. 46 rushing yards a game in 5 games
  • RB Trey Cooley 11 rushing yards a game in 5 games
  • WR Chris Lawson 64 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 16 last season
  • WR Dezmen Roebuck 62 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 46 last season
  • WR Rashid Williams 42 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 27 last season
Nebraska
  • QB Anthony Colandrea 230 passing yards a game in 6 games
  • RB Jamal Rule 77 rushing yards a game in 5 games
  • RB Mekhi Nelson 47 rushing yards a game in 6 games, 18 last season
  • WR Jacory Barney Jr. 59 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 37 last season
  • WR Quinn Clark 10 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 19 last season
  • WR Cortez Mills Jr. 23 receiving yards a game in 1 game, 24 last season

From the game logs, this season first. College has no published depth chart or injury report; these are the players who actually carried it.

The game plan
Washington with the ball

What they like to do. Washington are middle of the country in how they play.

Where they win and lose. They run it well (13th), hit explosive passes (18th) and break explosive runs (18th).

What the Nebraska defense brings. They give up the run (9th-worst).

What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.

Where the two meet. Washington run it well (13th); Nebraska give up the run (9th-worst). Edge Washington.

Nebraska with the ball

What they like to do. Nebraska are middle of the country in how they play.

Where they win and lose. They get sacked (18th-worst).

What the Washington defense brings. They shut the run down (9th).

What works against them. Bring pressure: they take sacks (18th-worst).

Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.

From every play of the 2025 season, ranked against the 138 FBS teams. College has no blitz or coverage charting yet, so the plan reads strengths against weaknesses.