How Model Price Works: the NIL methodology, in public
Updated October 13, 2026
The number next to every player on our valuations board is a model estimate of what a program pays him, with a range. This page is the recipe, and the score. If you quote a Model Price, this is what you are quoting.
How wrong we are
Every reported deal is a test. Each deal is graded against a model re-fit without it, so the model never sees the answer it is being tested on. Here is the score on this season's deals.
In-sample, with the deal inside the fit: median miss 32%, within 30% on 40%, we run 2% low.
By position group, median miss: QB 20% (n=6); everyone else 40% (n=9); DL 77% (n=3); OL 26% (n=3).
| Player | Reported | Our number |
|---|---|---|
 Trinidad ChamblissQB · Ole Miss | $5.0M Yahoo Sports | $3.4MUNDER -32% |
 Jordan SeatonOT · LSU | $4.0M Sports Illustrated (via CBS Sports) | $4.0MCLOSE -1% |
 Demond Williams Jr.QB · Washington | $4.0M ESPN | $3.7MCLOSE -8% |
 Drew MestemakerQB · Oklahoma State | $3.8M Denton Record-Chronicle | $3.7MCLOSE -3% |
JCJackson CantwellOT · Miami | $2.0M CBS Sports | $1.2MUNDER -40% |
JCJared CurtisQB · Vanderbilt | $2.0M Sports Illustrated | $2.0MCLOSE -2% |
 Cam ColemanWR · Texas | $2.0M Athlon Sports (via On3) | $4.3MOVER +114% |
 Kewan LacyRB · Ole Miss | $2.0M OMSpirit (247) via HottyToddy | $1.4MUNDER -32% |
FOFelix OjoOT · Texas Tech | $1.7M ESPN | $1.3MCLOSE -26% |
FBFaizon BrandonQB · Tennessee | $1.0M Athlon Sports (via On3) | $2.6MOVER +161% |
 Devon DampierQB · Utah | $1.0M KSL.com | $1.7MOVER +70% |
CCChaz ColemanEDGE · Tennessee | $1.0M CBS Sports | $227KUNDER -77% |
 Princewill UmanmielenDE · LSU | $1.0M Audacy (WWL New Orleans radio) | $2.1MOVER +107% |
 Anthony JonesEDGE · Oregon | $1.0M On3/Rivals (Steve Wiltfong) | $1.7MOVER +71% |
LGLaDamion GuytonLB · Texas Tech | $900K Pro Football Network | $1.2MOVER +37% |
Ole Miss
LSU
Washington
Oklahoma State
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Utah
OregonReported is the outlet's annual figure, linked. Our number is the model's price for him with his deal held out of the fit. Miss is ours against reported; CLOSE means within 30%.
Prior seasons. 14 deals from 2024 and 2025, priced the way we would have priced them at the time: median miss 58%, within 30% on 29%, we run 13% high (2024: 62% on 1, 2025: 58% on 13).
The team check
10 programs have a reported roster payroll we can hold our roster sums against. Median miss 11%, we run 2% low. The five worst:
| Program | Reported | Our payroll |
|---|---|---|
 Illinois | $8.0M 2025 On3 (Pete Nakos) via SI | $24.6MOVER +207% |
 Texas Tech | $46.4M 2025 On3 (Pete Nakos) via SI | $36.1MCLOSE -22% |
 Miami | $48.0M 2025 On3 (Pete Nakos) via Yahoo | $41.2MCLOSE -14% |
 North Carolina | $21.6M 2025 ESPN (Tim Keown) via Bleacher Report | $24.6MCLOSE +14% |
 Texas | $50.0M 2025 CBS Sports | $55.6MCLOSE +11% |
Reported payrolls are last season's figures scaled to this season's market, or this season's where one has been reported. Our budget bands already lean on these same reports, so an anchored team's miss understates the model's own error.
By rebuild
- 2026-10-12: median miss 37%
- 2026-10-13: median miss 37%
Median miss on the current season's deals, one point per rebuild.
What changed
The last three rebuilds: what was re-fit (names only), what joined the ledger, and the prices that moved most.
2026-10-13
Inputs re-fit: starter_floor_f, starters_lifted.
No ledger rows added.
Biggest moves against nil_valuations_20261012.csv:
Aaron PhiloQB · Florida$168K → $1.1M ↑
Marcel ReedQB · Texas A&M$332K → $1.1M ↑
Billy Edwards Jr.QB · North Carolina$272K → $1.0M ↑
Ashton DanielsQB · Florida State$336K → $1.0M ↑
Rocco BechtQB · Penn State$490K → $1.2M ↑
Jaden CraigQB · TCU$293K → $963K ↑
Byrum BrownQB · Auburn$476K → $1.1M ↑
Alberto MendozaQB · Georgia Tech$328K → $923K ↑
Keyone JenkinsQB · UCF$295K → $834K ↑2026-10-12
Inputs re-fit: global_k, talent_k, talent_k_qb.
No ledger rows added.
Biggest moves against nil_valuations_20261011.csv:
CJ CarrQB · Notre Dame$185K → $3.5M ↑
Yhonzae PierreLB · Alabama$404K → $2.7M ↑
Kyngstonn Viliamu-AsaLB · Notre Dame$462K → $2.2M ↑
Jesse PerryOT · Tennessee$231K → $1.9M ↑
John MateerQB · Oklahoma$170K → $1.8M ↑
DJ LagwayQB · Baylor$192K → $1.8M ↑
Darian MensahQB · Miami$5.7M → $4.1M ↓
Francis BrewuIDL · Notre Dame$1.7M → $299K ↓
Raylen WilsonLB · Georgia$574K → $1.9M ↑
Julian SayinQB · Ohio State$4.5M → $3.4M ↓1. Facts first: the verified-deals ledger
The engine is anchored to a ledger of publicly reported deals. Journalism facts only. Every amount was reported by a named outlet or documented in court and public records. Valuation estimates from other services are never ingested as deal amounts. Where a report gave a range, we record the low end. Where a famous deal has no reported number, there is no row. No invented figures, ever.
Every ledger row carries a confidence tier: confirmed (player, school, or agent on the record, or public filings), reported (credible outlet with a specific figure), or rumored (single-source, disputed, or aggregator-only). Declined offers are recorded too, because they price the market's willingness to pay, but they are excluded from realized-compensation totals.
2. The position rate card
Reported deals and published market surveys are fit into a position-by-role rate card. Tackles and interior linemen have their own rows, so a tackle is priced as a tackle, not as a blend of the line. Three anchor vintages are kept deliberately so the card can model market growth rather than freeze it. Current card:
| Position | Role | 25th %ile | Median | 75th %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB | STARTER | $700K | $775K | $850K |
| CB | ROTATION | $150K | $250K | $350K |
| CB | DEPTH | $37K | $62K | $93K |
| EDGE | STARTER | $600K | $800K | $1.0M |
| EDGE | ROTATION | $300K | $400K | $500K |
| EDGE | DEPTH | $38K | $64K | $96K |
| IDL | STARTER | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| IDL | ROTATION | $250K | $375K | $500K |
| IDL | DEPTH | $50K | $84K | $126K |
| IOL | STARTER | $550K | $600K | $650K |
| IOL | ROTATION | $126K | $210K | $315K |
| IOL | DEPTH | $200K | $250K | $300K |
| LB | STARTER | $600K | $700K | $700K |
| LB | ROTATION | $250K | $325K | $400K |
| LB | DEPTH | $150K | $200K | $250K |
| OT | STARTER | $500K | $750K | $4.0M |
| OT | ROTATION | $300K | $400K | $500K |
| OT | DEPTH | $36K | $60K | $90K |
| QB | STARTER | $1.5M | $2.0M | $4.0M |
| QB | ROTATION | $750K | $875K | $1.0M |
| QB | DEPTH | $96K | $160K | $240K |
| RB | STARTER | $700K | $775K | $850K |
| RB | ROTATION | $250K | $275K | $300K |
| RB | DEPTH | $37K | $62K | $93K |
| S | STARTER | $675K | $712K | $750K |
| S | ROTATION | $150K | $249K | $374K |
| S | DEPTH | $200K | $275K | $350K |
| ST | STARTER | $100K | $150K | $200K |
| ST | ROTATION | $32K | $52K | $79K |
| ST | DEPTH | $7K | $12K | $18K |
| TE | STARTER | $550K | $600K | $650K |
| TE | ROTATION | $126K | $210K | $315K |
| TE | DEPTH | $200K | $250K | $300K |
| WR | STARTER | $500K | $650K | $3.2M |
| WR | ROTATION | $300K | $400K | $500K |
| WR | DEPTH | $31K | $52K | $78K |
3. On-field value drives the player number
A player's Model Price starts from what he does on the field: role, production, recruiting pedigree and draft-board signal (a board rank counts only when at least two boards agree), slotted into his position's rate card. In season, last year's grade blends with this year's as the games pile up, so a hot September moves a price and one quarter does not. Linebackers read our Model Score, the grade on the prospect pages, because production alone ranked drafted linebackers backwards. Social reach can nudge a number; it never drives one. Football first.
4. Reconciled to real budgets, with a range
Player values on a roster are reconciled to that program's budget band, built from public statements, records requests, and the rev-share era's published figures, so a team's model payroll lives in the range its own administrators describe. Only the top 70 players on each roster are priced at all; the money does not reach a 105-man roster, and everyone past the pool shows as not modeled rather than as a token figure.
Every modeled price ships with a range. The range is the spread of our own past misses on players like him, position by position, applied to his number: a quarterback's range is tighter than a lineman's because we have been closer on quarterbacks. A position with too few graded deals borrows the all-positions spread.
5. Reported deals supersede the model
When a real number is credibly reported for a player, it replaces the model's estimate on our surfaces and prints without a range. The model prices the unpriced; journalism outranks it.
Now run a real NIL budget yourself. Be a GM College →Questions, corrections, or a deal we should know about: the ledger only gets better with receipts.