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Week 1 · Sunday Sep 13 · Final

BrownsatJaguars

FinalCLE 10, JAX 34Jaguars by 24
SpreadJAX -8.5Jaguars covered
Total40.5went over, 44 points
OpenedJAX -7.5moved 1 points by kickoff

The run game. Expect the Browns to give up on the run early.

Sunday: Browns ran for 87 yards on 22 carries.

The model's reads, Over 39.5: it won.

The depth charts as they stand today.

Jaguars run defense, 4th, against a run game ranked 29th.

Longer bar, better unit.

Browns with the ball

Browns offenseJaguars defense
17th
Passing
15th
29th
Run game
4th
30th
Pass rush
19th
30th
Third down
10th
25th
Big plays
5th
4th
Turnovers
3rd
26th
Red zone
3rd

Jaguars with the ball

Jaguars offenseBrowns defense
5th
Passing
6th
13th
Run game
17th
17th
Pass rush
4th
7th
Third down
16th
9th
Big plays
23rd
22nd
Turnovers
14th
10th
Red zone
12th

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 7 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps.

Browns scored 10 against a team total of 16: under.

Browns scored 10 against a team total of 16: under. the spread and total, split.

Jaguars scored 34 against a team total of 24.5: over. the spread and total, split.

The situations on the schedule that fit this game.

This week · Browns as an underdog of 7 or more in week 1
49-30
this game200020052010201520202025
49 covered30 did notevery game since 1999, 62%; since 2021 10-3

The last time the Browns were here, Sep 3, 2000: lost to the Jaguars by 20 as a 10.5-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 79 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Browns.

This week · Browns with the worse quarterback by two tiers in week 1
145-111
this game200020052010201520202025
145 covered111 did notevery game since 1999, 57%; since 2021 35-25

The last time the Browns were here, Sep 3, 2000: lost to the Jaguars by 20 as a 10.5-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 256 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Browns.

This week · Jaguars as a favorite of 7 or more with the better quarterback by two tiers in week 1
18-35
this game200020052010201520202025
18 covered35 did notevery game since 1999, 34%; since 2021 2-8

The last time the Jaguars were here, Sep 3, 2000: beat the Browns by 20 as a 10.5-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 53 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Browns.

Searched this week: 1,157 spread situations and 92 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 3.92 on the spread and 3.37 on the total.

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Nothing was on the official card for this game.