Week 1 · Sunday 13:00 ET

Browns at Jaguars

Browns -7.5EverBank Stadium · outdoors
Total 40.5

The read

A first-year coach in Cleveland and one of the lowest totals on the board at 40.5. The market opened this at Browns -7.5 with a 40.5 and has not touched it since 2026-07-31, across 36 daily checks.

Who is on the field

Cleveland

Jacksonville

The Team HQ depth chart itself, not a copy. Offense and defense toggle inside it, and you can drag players to rearrange. Cross it against the injuries below.

Cleveland on its own page →Jacksonville on its own page →

Who is not playing

Cleveland

Joe RoyerTEPersonalOUT

Isaiah BondWRConcussionQUESTIONABLE

Dillon GabrielQBBackIR

Jamari ThrashWRIR

Alex WrightDEAchillesIR

Edefuan UlofoshioLBBicepsIR

Elijah ChatmanDTQuadricepsIR

Kalia DavisDTQuadricepsIR

and 1 more

Jacksonville

Nobody listed

Skill players in white, because every trend and coverage read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-07. Anyone cleared is absent from this list entirely.

Cleveland depth chart →Jacksonville depth chart →

Keys to the game

Browns

Load the box

Browns load the box 8.0%, 1st-most. Jaguars run it: 56.2% pass rate, 14th-fewest.

Has to

Find a way to score twice

Browns are 2nd-worst in EPA a play into the 3rd-best defense. Field position is the game.

Has to

Protect the football

Browns throw picks 3.0%, 4th-most, into a defense that takes it away 3.1%, 4th.

Jaguars

Squeeze them

Jaguars are 3rd-best in EPA allowed. Browns are 2nd-worst in EPA a play.

Go get the ball

Jaguars take it away 3.1%, 4th. Browns throw picks 3.0%, 4th-most.

Take the shots downfield

Jaguars hit explosive passes 9.4%, 8th. Browns play two-high just 32.1%, 1st-fewest.

Each team in one line

BrownsCannot throw itworstCannot complete a passworstGet pressure1stRarely play two-highlowest

JaguarsShut offenses down3rdCannot get a sack3rd-worstTake the ball away4thAlmost never play man7th-lowest

Full tendencies, 2025 regular season, ranked against all 32

Cleveland

How they play

They rarely play two-high32.1%two-high ratelowest

and they rarely sit in zone59.2%zone rate4th-lowest

Where they win and lose

They cannot throw it-0.29EPA a passworst

and they cannot complete a pass53.0%completion rateworst

and they get pressure34.9%pressure rate1st

and they cannot move the ball-0.19EPA a play2nd-worst

Jacksonville

How they play

They almost never play man23.8%man coverage rate7th-lowest

and they play fast63.1plays a game8th

Where they win and lose

They shut offenses down-0.11EPA allowed a play3rd

and they cannot get a sack4.5%sack rate3rd-worst

and they take the ball away3.1%interception rate4th

Cleveland tendencies →Jacksonville tendencies →

Angles that fire on this game

Model road lean in a low-total game

Take away · 661-551 in testing · our number is 1.9 points off the market

Leaning. Not proven.

54.5%

Frozen before the season and graded in public whatever happens. Where we do not believe one, it says so above in its own words.

Fantasy: who to start, and who they draw

Cleveland

Quinshon JudkinsRB

67% of the carries · 34 red-zone touches

Jerry JeudyWR

18% of the targets · 9 red-zone touches

Harold Fannin Jr.TE

19% of the targets · 13 red-zone touches

Jaguars give up more to TEs than almost anyone, 8th

Jacksonville

Travis EtienneRB

53% of the carries · 64 red-zone touches

Jakobi MeyersWR

21% of the targets · 11 red-zone touches

Brenton StrangeTE

14% of the targets · 10 red-zone touches

Browns are one of the hardest defenses for TEs, 29th

Usage is last season's average share and red-zone work. The defense line is what that team actually allowed to the position, ranked against all 32. Neither is a projection.

The last time they played

2024 wk 2

Browns at

Jaguars18-13Browns won, Browns covered

2023 wk 14

Jaguars at

Browns27-31Browns won, Browns covered

2020 wk 12

Browns at

Jaguars27-25Browns won, Jaguars covered

Against the spread in these meetings: 2-1 to Browns. Closing numbers, not openers.

Every meeting, with the lines →

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