College football recruiting

Recruiting accuracy

Our commit odds and our grade, graded in public, misses first. Updated Nov 5, 2026.

121Missesof 212 commits since Jul 1, our favorite was wrong 43%Favorite rightvisits alone: 23%70%Grade's draft callthe composite: 72%

Our misses

Since we started keeping score

starts tonight

From tonight, every commit is graded against the odds on his page the night before. The misses land here first.

Our biggest misses, Jul 1 to Nov 2

121 of 212 wrong

Sebastian Blue DLWe gave Louisville 94%. He picked Florida Atlantic (under 1%).Oct 16

Jayden Vessell EDGEWe gave North Texas 83%. He picked Oklahoma State (17%).Jul 29

Karnell James SWe gave Texas 82%. He picked LSU (2%).Jul 2

Cade Haug LBWe gave Texas 77%. He picked SMU (2%).Jul 20

Londyn Johnson LBWe gave Syracuse 75%. He picked Temple (22%).Jul 17

Blake Betton LBWe gave Penn State 73%. He picked Wisconsin (under 1%).Oct 25

Khalil Taylor WRWe gave Penn State 64%. He picked Nebraska (14%).Jul 6

Manase Brown OTWe gave BYU 61%. He picked Fresno State (16%).Jul 2

Seager Milholen TEWe gave Nebraska 59%. He picked Colorado State (30%).Jul 4

JD Brown QBWe gave Florida Atlantic 58%. He picked UConn (3%).Jul 2

E'Mareon Edison IOLWe gave Army 58%. He picked Stephen F. Austin (15%).Jul 25

Carvell Wafer RBWe gave Utah 54%. He picked Hawai'i (32%).Sep 19

Jeramie Cooper TEWe gave Houston 54%. He picked UAB (under 1%).Oct 23

Jaxon Zembrycki EDGEWe gave Arizona 54%. He picked Northern Arizona (6%).Jul 18

MiCah McClintock TEWe gave North Carolina 54%. He picked App State (4%).Sep 7

Monsanna Torbert Jr. CBWe gave Ohio State 52%. He picked Michigan (26%).Jul 1

Lawrence Hewlett RBWe gave James Madison 52%. He picked East Carolina (41%).Jul 5

Deshawn Dillon WRWe gave Mississippi State 52%. He picked Georgia Tech (21%).Aug 22

Kaiden Seals WRWe gave South Alabama 51%. He picked McNeese (20%).Aug 17

Rahzario Edwards TEWe gave USC 51%. He picked Ole Miss (under 1%).Oct 18

Caleb Unger IOLWe gave Mississippi State 49%. He picked Tulane (21%).Oct 26

Lauifi Tosi IOLWe gave North Carolina 48%. He picked Stanford (22%).Jul 6

William Wood QBWe gave Penn State 48%. He picked Boston College (26%).Oct 18

Maalik Moore ATHWe gave Missouri 48%. He picked Cincinnati (40%).Sep 27

Kyren Caldwell WRWe gave Alabama 45%. He picked Maryland (14%).Jul 4

Darryl Flemister SWe gave Iowa 45%. He picked Illinois (43%).Jul 4

Kahlio Vaetoe DLWe gave Washington State 43%. He picked San Diego State (3%).Sep 21

Caden Jones QBWe gave Washington 43%. He picked Arizona (34%).Jul 3

Connor Rooney LBWe gave Syracuse 43%. He picked Rice (27%).Jul 7

Kentorion King WRWe gave North Texas 43%. He picked Colorado State (9%).Jul 7

Easton Royal WRWe gave LSU 42%. He picked Florida (20%).Oct 11

Jaiden Fields ATHWe gave Texas A&M 42%. He picked Oklahoma (18%).Jul 7

Kylan Bobo RBWe gave Memphis 42%. He picked Colorado (38%).Jul 1

Messiah Mack IOLWe gave Georgia State 41%. He picked South Florida (40%).Oct 28

Derrick LeBlanc Jr. DLWe gave Arizona 40%. He picked Air Force (6%).Aug 26

Ahmeer Williamson LBWe gave Arizona 40%. He picked Cal Poly (12%).Sep 13

Rashaad Silver SWe gave Georgia 40%. He picked Arkansas (14%).Jul 1

Kadin Fife DLWe gave Tennessee 39%. He picked Louisville (under 1%).Jul 14

Tyran Clark DLWe gave South Florida 39%. He picked Colorado State (2%).Jul 4

Kye Wehby WRWe gave McNeese 39%. He picked Tarleton State (11%).Jul 18

Chuck Alexander WRWe gave Wisconsin 38%. He picked Iowa State (2%).Jul 3

Ta'Shawn Poole SWe gave Georgia 38%. He picked Florida State (8%).Jul 17

Preston Glasco CBWe gave Georgia 38%. He picked Tennessee (9%).Oct 28

Evan Mack CBWe gave Washington 37%. He picked Arizona (28%).Jul 2

DJ Williams EDGEWe gave Mississippi State 37%. He picked Oklahoma State (18%).Oct 30

Kaleb Exume DLWe gave Boston College 37%. He picked Louisville (4%).Oct 30

Kameron Payne EDGEWe gave New Mexico 36%. He picked Cal Poly (16%).Jul 3

Julian Reese II ATHWe gave Wake Forest 36%. He picked Delaware (12%).Aug 28

Keilan Neal DLWe gave Kansas State 35%. He picked Oklahoma State (4%).Oct 17

DeMarco Jenkins DLWe gave TCU 35%. He picked SMU (20%).Oct 21

Chad Willis WRWe gave Auburn 35%. He picked North Carolina (28%).Jul 1

Elijajuan Houston SWe gave Texas Tech 35%. He picked SMU (22%).Oct 14

Dallas Pauldo DLWe gave Missouri 35%. He picked Maryland (25%).Jul 11

Censere Gaylord CBWe gave Georgia 35%. He picked Washington (26%).Jul 11

Landen Williams-Callis RBWe gave Texas A&M 34%. He picked Texas (30%).Aug 1

Dorian Franklin SWe gave UCLA 34%. He picked Harvard (under 1%).Jul 17

Shamar Banner QBWe gave Marshall 33%. He picked Tulsa (30%).Sep 20

Brayton Feister ATHWe gave Georgia 33%. He picked Oregon (28%).Aug 14

Kyle Davis ATHWe gave NC State 33%. He picked Northwestern (31%).Jul 4

Dolph McDonald CBWe gave Mississippi State 33%. He picked Southern Miss (under 1%).Oct 30

Jakob Madden PWe gave Florida Atlantic 32%. He picked Troy (25%).Jul 3

Sincere Wilkerson IOLWe gave Florida International 31%. He picked Coastal Carolina (23%).Jul 1

Kennedy Green SWe gave South Carolina 31%. He picked Mississippi State (20%).Jul 11

Nick Carroll SWe gave Tennessee 31%. He picked Georgia (7%).Oct 8

Michael Kori CBWe gave Oregon State 31%. He picked Idaho (17%).Aug 18

Tristan Hardin-Roberts OTWe gave Oklahoma State 31%. He picked West Virginia (27%).Jul 11

David Gabriel Georges RBWe gave Georgia 31%. He picked Tennessee (22%).Jul 22

Josiah Sturdivant EDGEWe gave East Carolina 30%. He picked Vanderbilt (2%).Sep 17

Karlos May DLWe gave Georgia 30%. He picked Ohio State (22%).Jul 18

DaJohn Yarborough IOLWe gave Washington 30%. He picked California (14%).Jul 11

Franklin Richardson ATHWe gave Duke 30%. He picked Maryland (24%).Sep 25

Qualteau Hawkins ATHWe gave Virginia Tech 29%. He picked Georgia Southern (4%).Nov 1

Akedran Crumel CBWe gave Wake Forest 28%. He picked NC State (27%).Jul 24

Jaylen Smith EDGEWe gave Ole Miss 28%. He picked Southern Miss (6%).Jul 2

Jacob Whitehead CBWe gave USC 28%. He picked Arizona (2%).Aug 5

Ezekiel Su'a LBWe gave UNLV 28%. He picked Dartmouth (2%).Aug 10

Antwan Jackson EDGEWe gave Alabama 27%. He picked Ole Miss (20%).Jul 3

Hayden Stepp CBWe gave Georgia 27%. He picked Oregon (26%).Jul 1

Davion Jones SWe gave Clemson 27%. He picked South Carolina (26%).Jul 2

Jayden Johnson RBWe gave Georgia Southern 27%. He picked Middle Tennessee (2%).Jul 7

Camarey Bell CBWe gave Mississippi State 27%. He picked Lamar (8%).Jul 15

Levi Kerr QBWe gave Michigan 27%. He picked North Carolina (12%).Nov 1

J'lynnd Kellow CBWe gave Iowa State 26%. He picked Oklahoma State (16%).Oct 29

Raheem Floyd CBWe gave Missouri 25%. He picked Florida (20%).Jul 7

Dewey Young OTWe gave Georgia 25%. He picked Colorado (6%).Jul 6

Delonte Duff IOLWe gave TCU 24%. He picked Arkansas (24%).Sep 26

Clark Cokley WRWe gave San Diego State 24%. He picked Georgetown (1%).Jul 27

Aidan Whitaker ATHWe gave San Diego State 24%. He picked Northern Arizona (6%).Oct 15

Xavier Sabb ATHWe gave Alabama 23%. He picked Oregon (16%).Jul 10

Kingston Preyear QBWe gave Florida 23%. He picked Alabama (12%).Jul 10

Rome Ewell LBWe gave Houston 23%. He picked Louisville (16%).Sep 28

Jett Harrison WRWe gave Notre Dame 22%. He picked Ohio State (11%).Jul 1

Isaac Andrews DLWe gave Georgia State 22%. He picked Kennesaw State (18%).Aug 7

Joshua Echols LBWe gave Wake Forest 22%. He picked Arkansas State (under 1%).Nov 1

Jack Whelchel LBWe gave Iowa State 22%. He picked Pennsylvania (1%).Jul 4

Joseph Gibbs WRWe gave Kentucky 21%. He picked South Carolina (20%).Jul 8

Lincoln Mageo IOLWe gave UCLA 21%. He picked Michigan (15%).Jul 11

Madaylan McKenzie EDGEWe gave Tennessee 20%. He picked Louisiana (18%).Aug 14

Koehn Dial OTWe gave Tennessee 20%. He picked Georgia (7%).Oct 19

Jayden Elder WRWe gave Pittsburgh 19%. He picked Florida International (17%).Aug 28

Colton Johnson TEWe gave Florida State 19%. He picked Ole Miss (15%).Jul 9

Josh Alford SWe gave Tulane 18%. He picked West Georgia (4%).Jul 2

Hunter Fujikawa QBWe gave Washington 18%. He picked Stanford (2%).Nov 2

Cairo Williams SWe gave Louisville 18%. He picked North Carolina Central (10%).Oct 7

Giovanni Tuggle SWe gave Clemson 17%. He picked Ole Miss (8%).Sep 22

Samuel Bailey OTWe gave Florida State 16%. He picked Florida (3%).Sep 28

David Dotson DLWe gave Texas 15%. He picked SMU (2%).Oct 11

Romel Koon CBWe gave Kentucky 15%. He picked Tulsa (1%).Jul 5

Sam Walker IOLWe gave SMU 12%. He picked Georgia Tech (3%).Oct 4

Darieon Prescott EDGEWe gave Texas A&M 12%. He picked Notre Dame (2%).Jul 27

Antavion Allen DLWe gave Texas 11%. He picked Ole Miss (10%).Aug 11

James Bethea WRWe gave Florida 11%. He picked Bethune-Cookman (2%).Jul 1

Patrick Hall CBWe gave Ole Miss 11%. He picked San José State (11%).Jul 19

Jordan Carraway IOLWe gave Baylor 11%. He picked Tulane (1%).Oct 26

Kaden Craft QBWe gave Florida 11%. He picked Tennessee (7%).Aug 17

Jay Schell LBWe gave Tennessee 10%. He picked Oklahoma (2%).Sep 22

Za'Kari Johnson ATHWe gave Miami 10%. He picked Florida State (8%).Jul 14

Tysir Young EDGEWe gave Ohio State 10%. He picked Alabama (6%).Jul 26

Lukas Prock QBWe gave Missouri 8%. He picked Indiana (4%).Jul 23

Austin Attalah OTWe gave USC 8%. He picked Texas Tech (4%).Aug 25

Braylen Bedford SWe gave Kentucky 8%. He picked Ole Miss (2%).Sep 20

The test: the model learned from 1,798 commits before Jul 1, then priced each later commit the day before it happened, never having seen it. Surest misses first: the higher our number on the school he passed on, the worse the miss.

Commit odds

How often our favorite was right

212 commits it never saw

Our odds91 of 21243%

Visits alonethe school he visited23%

A coin for every offeran even split4%

Our favorite is the school with the highest odds on his page the day before he committed. Visits alone uses official and unofficial visits and nothing else.

When we say 30%, does it happen 30%?

every school on every board

When we said 10-20%

We said281 school-recruit pairs15%

It happenedhe picked that school12%

When we said 20-30%

We said154 school-recruit pairs24%

It happenedhe picked that school27%

When we said 30-40%

We said77 school-recruit pairs34%

It happenedhe picked that school34%

When we said 40-50%

We said41 school-recruit pairs44%

It happenedhe picked that school56%

When we said 50-60%

We said19 school-recruit pairs54%

It happenedhe picked that school37%

When we said 60-80%

We said17 school-recruit pairs69%

It happenedhe picked that school71%

When we said 80-100%

We said15 school-recruit pairs93%

It happenedhe picked that school80%

Every school on every held-out board, grouped by the odds we gave it. Close numbers mean the odds can be taken at face value. The 0-10% group is left off: thousands of long shots, and they land as often as we say.

247's Crystal Ball

their published record

247 posts each analyst's Crystal Ball record. The best sit near 90%: in the 2018 class its top analyst went 434 of 474, or 92% (the standings).
Those are calls from reporters who talk to families and coaches, and an analyst picks the recruits he knows. Ours gives every school on every board a number, every night, from public facts only: offers, visits, distance, room at his position.
So theirs is the insider's call and ours is the reason a school is ahead. We never use their picks, and we never store them.

The grade

Drafted, by tier

classes 2010-2020

Top 100 in his class

Our grade1,100 recruits30%

The compositethe industry's ranking30%

101-300 in his class

Our grade2,200 recruits19%

The compositethe industry's ranking17%

301-1,000 in his class

Our grade7,700 recruits10%

The compositethe industry's ranking10%

1,001 and on in his class

Our grade25,533 recruits4%

The compositethe industry's ranking4%

Drafted: in the NFL draft three to six years after his class. Tiers are ranks inside each class, so both grades are scored on the same number of recruits. Take one drafted recruit and one who was not: our grade ranks the drafted one higher 70% of the time, the composite 72%. The composite reads film and the market; ours reads only who offered, so it is behind, and it is shown beside the composite on every recruit page, never in its place. Every class, every table.

Beat our odds: Commit Picks Find a recruit How the grades are made Every program's 2027 class