Week 1 · Sunday 16:25 ET

Dolphins at Raiders

Dolphins -3.5Allegiant Stadium · indoors
Total 40.5

The read

Two brand-new head coaches, a dome and one of the lowest totals on the board at 40.5. Jeff Hafley and Klint Kubliak are both in their first season with these teams. It opened Dolphins -3 and 41.5, moved once on 2026-08-01, and has sat still for the 36 days we have been watching.

Who is on the field

Miami

Las Vegas

The Team HQ depth chart itself, not a copy. Offense and defense toggle inside it, and you can drag players to rearrange. Cross it against the injuries below.

Miami on its own page →Las Vegas on its own page →

Who is not playing

Miami

Darrell Baker Jr.CBOUT

Storm DuckCBKneeOUT

Ollie Gordon IIRBRibsQUESTIONABLE

Will KacmarekTEQUESTIONABLE

Jacob RodriguezLBQUESTIONABLE

Ben SimsTEIR

Cole TurnerTEIR

Kenneth GrantDTLegIR

and 1 more

Las Vegas

Ashton JeantyRBAnkleQUESTIONABLE

Carter RunyonTEIR

Chris CollierRBIR

Dont'e Thornton Jr.WRIR

Brennan JacksonLBIR

Chigozie AnusiemCBKneeIR

Justin PickettGIR

Keyron CrawfordDEAnkleIR

Skill players in white, because every trend and coverage read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-07. Anyone cleared is absent from this list entirely.

Miami depth chart →Las Vegas depth chart →

Keys to the game

Dolphins

Blitz them

Dolphins blitz 32.8%, 5th. Raiders take sacks 11.1%, 1st-most.

Run at the Raiders zone eyes

Explosive run rate 13.0%, 5th. Raiders play man 20.4%, 30th: lighter boxes, backs turned.

Has to

Get off the field on early downs

Dolphins are 5th-worst in early-down EPA allowed, and Raiders pass on early downs 56.5%, 5th.

Raiders

Throw on first and second down

Raiders pass on early downs 56.5%, 5th. Dolphins are 5th-worst in early-down EPA allowed.

Has to

Pick up the blitz

Raiders take sacks 11.1%, 1st-most, and Dolphins blitz 32.8%, 5th.

Has to

Stop the Dolphins run with light boxes

Zone eyes mean light boxes, and Dolphins rip explosive runs 5th-most.

Not a key: the Dolphins blitz (5th) on Cousins. He drops when blitzed like everyone, but from 10th in the league.

Not a key: pace. Dolphins 32nd and Raiders 31st in plays a game. Two of the slowest offenses in football, so the total leans under.

Each team in one line

DolphinsThrow interceptions2nd-worstLet everything get completed2nd-worstBreak explosive runs5thPlay slowslowest

RaidersCannot move the ballworstCannot run itworstGet sackedworstPlay slow2nd-slowest

Full tendencies, 2025 regular season, ranked against all 32

Miami

How they play

They play slow55.4plays a gameslowest

and they play light boxes30.2%light box rate3rd

and they blitz32.8%blitz rate5th

and they play two-high50.0%two-high rate5th

Where they win and lose

They throw interceptions3.5%interception rate2nd-worst

and they let everything get completed62.7%completion rate allowed2nd-worst

and they break explosive runs13.0%explosive run rate5th

and they lose early downs+0.19early-down EPA allowed5th-worst

Las Vegas

How they play

They play slow55.4plays a game2nd-slowest

and they play zone79.6%zone rate2nd

and they sit in Cover 338.0%Cover 3 rate2nd

and they throw it as much as anyone61.4%pass rate4th

Where they win and lose

They cannot move the ball-0.22EPA a playworst

and they cannot run it-0.26EPA a runworst

and they get sacked11.1%sacks takenworst

and they never break a long run8.5%explosive run rate2nd-worst

Miami tendencies →Las Vegas tendencies →

Angles that fire on this game

Model road lean in a low-total game

Take away · 661-551 in testing · our number is 2.2 points off the market

Leaning. Not proven.

54.5%

Underdog vs a team looking ahead to a division game

Take away · 991-915 in testing

TEST, expectation null. Surfaced by the 2026-08-28 depth-4 sweep INSIDE the luck envelope; the model-free base rate is 50.3%. Registered to settle it forward, not because we believe it.

52.0%

Model lean vs a team looking ahead to a division game

Take away · 764-680 in testing · our number is 2.2 points off the market

TEST, expectation null. Same sweep, same luck-envelope caveat as PR-004.

52.9%

Frozen before the season and graded in public whatever happens. Where we do not believe one, it says so above in its own words.

Player trends that apply to this game

De'Von AchaneRB has 10 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.

10 of 10, 100% in this spot · 2025

10 of 23, 44% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Fantasy: who to start, and who they draw

Miami

De'Von AchaneRB

61% of the carries · 43 red-zone touches

Tyreek HillWR

22% of the targets · 2 red-zone touches

Darren WallerTE

15% of the targets · 8 red-zone touches

Las Vegas

Ashton JeantyRB

71% of the carries · 45 red-zone touches

Jakobi MeyersWR

20% of the targets · 6 red-zone touches

Dolphins are one of the hardest defenses for WRs, 26th

Brock BowersTE

20% of the targets · 18 red-zone touches

Usage is last season's average share and red-zone work. The defense line is what that team actually allowed to the position, ranked against all 32. Neither is a projection.

The last time they played

2024 wk 11

Raiders at

Dolphins19-34Dolphins won, Dolphins covered

2023 wk 11

Raiders at

Dolphins13-20Dolphins won, Raiders covered

2021 wk 3

Dolphins at

Raiders28-31Raiders won, Dolphins covered

2020 wk 16

Dolphins at

Raiders26-25Dolphins won, Raiders covered

Against the spread in these meetings: 2-2 to Raiders. Closing numbers, not openers.

Every meeting, with the lines →

Build this angle in the Angle Finder All games this week