Week 1 · Sunday 13:00 ET

Jets at Titans

Jets -1.5Nissan Stadium · outdoors
Total 39.5

The read

One of the lowest totals on the board at 39.5. The forecast has gusts to 16 miles an hour. Not enough on its own to move a total, but it is real. It opened Jets -3 and 39.5 and has moved three times since, most recently on 2026-09-05.

Who is on the field

New York

Tennessee

The Team HQ depth chart itself, not a copy. Offense and defense toggle inside it, and you can drag players to rearrange. Cross it against the injuries below.

New York on its own page →Tennessee on its own page →

Who is not playing

New York

Tyler BaronDEKneeOUT

Breece HallRBGroinQUESTIONABLE

Isaiah DavisRBKneeQUESTIONABLE

Kenyon SadiqTEAbdomenQUESTIONABLE

D'Angelo PondsCBCalfQUESTIONABLE

Joseph OssaiDEFootQUESTIONABLE

Nahshon WrightCBHipQUESTIONABLE

Qwan'tez StiggersCBConcussionQUESTIONABLE

and 5 more

Tennessee

Carnell TateWRQUESTIONABLE

Mitchell TrubiskyQBBicepsQUESTIONABLE

Wan'Dale RobinsonWRHeadQUESTIONABLE

Andre JamesCQUESTIONABLE

Keldric FaulkDEShoulderQUESTIONABLE

Jaren KanakTEPectoralIR

Dorian MausiLBIR

Jaylen HarrellLBKnee - ACLIR

and 4 more

Skill players in white, because every trend and coverage read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-07. Anyone cleared is absent from this list entirely.

New York depth chart →Tennessee depth chart →

Keys to the game

Jets

Find Taylor against zone

0.35 EPA a target vs zone, 39th of 104. Titans play zone 73.4%, 11th.

Send it at Ward, and get there

Ward falls to -0.55 blitzed, but Jets are only 30th at turning the blitz into pressure.

Run at the Titans zone eyes

Explosive run rate 11.7%, 11th. Titans play man 26.4%, 22nd: lighter boxes, backs turned.

Titans

Throw on first and second down

Titans pass on early downs 57.0%, 4th. Jets are 1st-worst in early-down EPA allowed.

Has to

Change the picture on Taylor

He is -0.53 against man. Titans play it 26.4%, 22nd.

Has to

Keep Ward clean

0.08 EPA a dropback clean, 34th of 37. Blitzed, -0.55, 37th of 37.

Not a key: pace. Jets 21st and Titans 24th in plays a game. Two of the slowest offenses in football, so the total leans under.

Each team in one line

JetsNever hit a deep oneworstGive it upworstNever take it awayworstRarely play Cover 35th-lowest

TitansCannot throw it2nd-worstProtect the football2ndCannot move the ball3rd-worstThrow it as much as anyone3rd

Full tendencies, 2025 regular season, ranked against all 32

New York

How they play

They rarely play Cover 322.3%Cover 3 rate5th-lowest

and they play man40.1%man coverage rate6th

and they live in shotgun73.1%shotgun rate8th

Where they win and lose

They never hit a deep one4.7%explosive pass rateworst

and they give it up+0.29EPA allowed a playworst

and they never take it away0.0%interception rateworst

and they cannot complete a pass53.6%completion rate2nd-worst

Tennessee

How they play

They throw it as much as anyone62.6%pass rate3rd

and they load the box15.9%light box rate6th-lowest

and they rarely play single-high49.1%single-high rate8th-lowest

Where they win and lose

They cannot throw it-0.22EPA a pass2nd-worst

and they protect the football1.3%interception rate2nd

and they cannot move the ball-0.16EPA a play3rd-worst

and they cannot complete a pass54.6%completion rate4th-worst

New York tendencies →Tennessee tendencies →

Angles that fire on this game

None of our frozen angles fire here. The slate is registered before the season and never added to mid-week, so an empty game stays empty.

Player trends that apply to this game

Tony PollardRB has 8 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 50+ rushing yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot · 2023-2024

20 of 37, 54% in every other spot

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Fantasy: who to start, and who they draw

New York

Breece HallRB

57% of the carries · 33 red-zone touches

Garrett WilsonWR

29% of the targets · 5 red-zone touches

Titans give up more to WRs than almost anyone, 8th

Mason TaylorTE

15% of the targets · 9 red-zone touches

Titans give up more to TEs than almost anyone, 6th

Tennessee

Tony PollardRB

64% of the carries · 20 red-zone touches

Jets give up more to RBs than almost anyone, 1st

Elic AyomanorWR

16% of the targets · 8 red-zone touches

Chig OkonkwoTE

13% of the targets · 5 red-zone touches

Usage is last season's average share and red-zone work. The defense line is what that team actually allowed to the position, ranked against all 32. Neither is a projection.

The last time they played

2024 wk 2

Jets at

Titans24-17Jets won, Jets covered

2021 wk 4

Titans at

Jets24-27Jets won, Jets covered

Against the spread in these meetings: 2-0 to Jets. Closing numbers, not openers.

Every meeting, with the lines →

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