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Week 2 · Sunday Sep 20 · Final

JaguarsatBroncos

FinalJAX 13, DEN 20Broncos by 7
SpreadDEN -2.5Broncos covered
Total45.5stayed under, 33 points
OpenedDEN -3moved 0.5 points by kickoff

The passing game. Expect the Broncos to find nowhere to throw.

Sunday: Broncos threw for 288 yards and 1 touchdown.

The model's reads, Over 43.5: it lost.

The depth charts as they stand today.

Jaguars pass defense, 15th, against a passing game ranked 26th.

Longer bar, better unit.

Jaguars with the ball

Jaguars offenseBroncos defense
5th
Passing
8th
13th
Run game
25th
17th
Pass rush
5th
7th
Third down
23rd
9th
Big plays
18th
22nd
Turnovers
7th
10th
Red zone
10th

Broncos with the ball

Broncos offenseJaguars defense
26th
Passing
15th
15th
Run game
4th
2nd
Pass rush
19th
24th
Third down
10th
30th
Big plays
5th
15th
Turnovers
3rd
11th
Red zone
3rd

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 7 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps.

Jaguars scored 13 against a team total of 21.5: under.

Jaguars scored 13 against a team total of 21.5: under. the spread and total, split.

Broncos scored 20 against a team total of 24: under. the spread and total, split.

The situations on the schedule that fit this game.

This week · Broncos after losing by 14 or more off a Monday night game
74-101
this game200020052010201520202025
74 covered101 did notevery game since 1999, 42%; since 2021 15-19

The last time the Broncos were here, Sep 19, 1999: lost to the Chiefs by 16 as a 3.5-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 175 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Jaguars.

This week · Jaguars after winning by 14 or more in the first four weeks with the worse head coach by two tiers
39-57
this game200020052010201520202025
39 covered57 did notevery game since 1999, 41%; since 2021 10-17

The last time the Jaguars were here, Sep 23, 2001: beat the Titans by 7 as a 2-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 96 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Broncos.

This week · Broncos in a pick 'em off a Monday night game with the worse quarterback by two tiers
26-41
this game200020052010201520202025
26 covered41 did notevery game since 1999, 39%; since 2021 6-9

The last time the Broncos were here, Sep 17, 2017: beat the Cowboys by 25 as a 2.5-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 67 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Jaguars.

Searched this week: 1,401 spread situations and 79 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 4.03 on the spread and 3.16 on the total.

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Nothing was on the official card for this game.