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This weekThe board · the model's plays and the triggers, graded in publicSee the board
Betting HQ · Week 4 · Sun 1:00 PM ET

RamsatEagles

Betting HQ→Player angles→
KickoffSun 1:00 PMET
MarketLA -2.5the posted spread
Our numberPHI -2.67we take the other side
Total43.5the posted total
Model playNone on this gamethe model has no edge here
Thu 8:15 PMPIT at CLEPIT -3 / PIT -1.83Sun 9:30 AMIND at WASIND -4.5 / WAS -0.51Sun 1:00 PMARI at NYGNYG -2.5 / ARI -0.22Sun 1:00 PMDAL at HOUHOU -3 / HOU -3.33Sun 1:00 PMGB at TBGB -1.5 / TB -1.3Sun 1:00 PMJAX at CINCIN -3 / CIN -2.33Sun 1:00 PMLA at PHILA -2.5 / PHI -2.67Sun 1:00 PMNE at BUFBUF -5.5 / BUF -6.23Sun 1:00 PMNYJ at CHICHI -3 / CHI -3.85Sun 1:00 PMTEN at BALBAL -10.5 / BAL -10.07Sun 4:05 PMMIA at MINMIN -10.5 / MIN -8.81Sun 4:25 PMDEN at SFSF -3 / SF -3.29Sun 4:25 PMKC at LVKC -6 / KC -4.69Sun 4:25 PMLAC at SEASEA -6.5 / SEA -5.56Sun 8:20 PMDET at CARDET -3 / DET -1.53Mon 8:15 PMATL at NONO -3.5 / NO -3.56

Depth charts and who's out

Who's out

Rams

  • Nobody listed.

Eagles

7 more

Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-30.

Los Angeles depth chart→Philadelphia depth chart→

The game

The model's play

No play

Nothing on the official card for this game.

Best price

The books have not been polled for this game yet.

The setting

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoorsgusts 15 mph at kickoffOpened Rams -2.5Total opened 0

The forecast has gusts to 15 miles an hour. Not enough on its own to move a total, but it is real.

The matchup

Rams with the ball

Rams: take the shots downfield.

Rams offenseEagles defense
2ndnow 15thMoving the ball7thnow 22nd
2ndnow 14thThrowing it2ndnow 3rd
2ndnow 3rdProtection vs the rush8th
4thnow 28thHolding on to itRams16thnow 25th
How they playstay under center lowestalmost never blitz 2nd-lowestplay man 2nd
Eagles with the ball

Eagles: find Smith against zone.

Eagles offenseRams defense
15thnow 12thMoving the ball8thnow 9th
13thnow 12thThrowing it14thnow 8th
16thnow 25thProtection vs the rush10th
5thnow 25thHolding on to it9thnow 11th
How they playgo no-huddle 4thlive in shotgun 6thalmost never blitz 3rd-lowest

Big ranks are the 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side; "now" is 2026 so far (2 to 3 games a team, too few to trust alone). top 8 bottom 8

The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Rams with the ball

What they like to do McVay's Rams stay under center (lowest).

Where they win and lose They move the ball (2nd), throw it well (2nd) and hit explosive passes (2nd).

What the Eagles defense brings They almost never blitz (2nd-lowest), play man (2nd) and rarely play cover 3 (3rd-lowest) and they make throws hard (2nd).

What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.

Where the two meet Rams: take the shots downfield. Rams hit explosive passes 11.7%, 2nd. Eagles play two-high just 35.9%, 5th-fewest.

Eagles with the ball

What they like to do Sirianni's Eagles go no-huddle (4th) and live in shotgun (6th).

Where they win and lose They protect the football (5th).

What the Rams defense brings They almost never blitz (3rd-lowest).

What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.

Where the two meet Eagles: find Smith against zone. In 2025: 0.61 EPA a target vs zone on 76 targets, 7th of 106 among receivers with 50+ targets. Rams played zone 74.4% in 2025, 10th. Eagles: run into light boxes. Eagles pass only 53.5%, 7th-fewest. Rams show a light box 23.5%, 12th-most.

Los Angeles

How they play
They stay under center41.0%shotgun ratelowest
and they almost never blitz19.6%blitz rate3rd-lowest
and they pass on early downs54.5%early-down pass rate7th
and they play two-high48.9%two-high rate7th
Where they win and lose
They move the ball+0.14EPA a play2nd
and they throw it well+0.23EPA a pass2nd
and they hit explosive passes11.7%explosive pass rate2nd
and they protect the quarterback3.7%sacks taken2nd

Philadelphia

How they play
They almost never blitz19.3%blitz rate2nd-lowest
and they play man43.6%man coverage rate2nd
and they rarely play Cover 322.2%Cover 3 rate3rd-lowest
and they go no-huddle19.3%no-huddle rate4th
Where they win and lose
They make throws hard49.4%completion rate allowed2nd
and they protect the football1.3%interception rate5th
and they shut offenses down-0.07EPA allowed a play7th
and they get pressure32.9%pressure rate8th
Los Angeles tendencies→Philadelphia tendencies→

The bets

What the model likes

Nothing on the official card for this game.

The information

All the evidence

Eagles +3strong
1,578 angles agree, 546 would by chance · mostly season form and last game
+5.9past luck
Under 43.5no more than luck
2,189 angles agree, 1,813 would by chance
+1.0past luck
Rams -3no more than luck
532 angles agree, 624 would by chance
-0.5past luck
Over 43.5no more than luck
941 angles agree, 1,284 would by chance
-0.6past luck

Player angles

No posted player line has an angle firing on it this week.

Player trends

Jalen Hurts QB PHI 2+ passing touchdownsConfidence 72
at home · 9 of 35 everywhere else, 2024-2026
8 of 10last 10 at home
Saquon Barkley RB PHI 50+ rushing yardsConfidence 56
outdoors · 8 of 12 everywhere else, 2025-2026
9 of 10last 10 outdoors
DeVonta Smith WR PHI 50+ receiving yardsConfidence 50
at home · 19 of 32 everywhere else, 2024-2026
7 of 10last 10 at home

Game angles

Our read: Eagles +3 and Under 43.5
The official card's pick where it has one; otherwise the side or total with more evidence past luck (the under favored when gusts at kickoff reach 25 mph). Every row below says if it agrees.
Eagles +3 a registered rule; a read, not on the official cardConfidence 64
model likes them by 3.0+, less rest than the opponent, better record, elite QB
64%25-14
Lean Eagles +3with our readConfidence 55
Rams against a team that has missed three straight covers two or more time zones from home. Every game since 1999.
96-136covered, did not
Lean Eagles +3with our readConfidence 57
Rams against a team that has missed three straight covers after traveling 1,500 miles or more. Every game since 1999.
80-123covered, did not
3 more game angles
Lean Over 43.5against our readConfidence 65
Overs have hit 65 of 108 in week 4 outside the division; usually 48%, 2016-2026.
65 of 108in this spot
Lean Eagles +3with our readConfidence 55
Rams against a team that has missed three straight covers in an early body-clock kickoff. Every game since 1999.
35-55covered, did not
Lean Rams -3against our readConfidence 58
Road teams have covered 45 of 73 in week 4 after the road team lost; usually 50%, 2016-2026.
45 of 73in this spot

Game trends

Lean Under 43.5with our readConfidence 64
Rams have gone under 8 of 10 outdoors after a loss; 37 of 78 everywhere else, 2021-2026, McVay and Stafford.
8 of 10gone under

A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.

Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts

The player lines

No player lines posted for this game yet.

Player trends

Hurts: 8 of his last 10 games at home with 2+ passing touchdowns.

8of 10
Jalen HurtsQB at home with 2+ passing touchdowns
2024-2026 · 9 of 35 elsewhere
Why 72
  1. The story No view on this one.
  2. The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 26% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
  3. Agreement No other signal on this side.
Share this card
72
score
9of 10
Saquon BarkleyRB outdoors with 50+ rushing yards
2025-2026 · 8 of 12 elsewhere
Against the storythe Eagles chase, so Barkley carries it less; the Eagles play slow
Why 56
  1. The story Against it: the Eagles chase, so Barkley carries it less; the Eagles play slow.
  2. The evidence 9 of 10 (90%) against a 67% baseline, 72% after shrinking for sample size.
  3. Agreement No other signal on this side.
Share this card
56
score
How this is graded

The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.

Player trends, every game →

Team trends

This week · Rams against a team that has missed three straight covers after traveling 1,500 miles or more
80-123
this game200020052010201520202025
80 covered123 did notevery game since 1999, 39%; since 2021 14-27

The last time the Rams were here, Jan 20, 2019: beat the Saints by 3 as a 3-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 203 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Eagles.

This week · Rams against a team that has missed three straight covers two or more time zones from home
96-136
this game200020052010201520202025
96 covered136 did notevery game since 1999, 41%; since 2021 18-29

The last time the Rams were here, Jan 20, 2019: beat the Saints by 3 as a 3-point underdog.

Inside the luck line: 232 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Eagles.

See all 5 team trends
This week · Rams against a team that has missed three straight covers in an early body-clock kickoff
35-55
this game200020052010201520202025
35 covered55 did notevery game since 1999, 39%; since 2021 9-10

The last time the Rams were here, Oct 20, 2019: beat the Falcons by 27 as a 3-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 90 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Eagles.

Searched this week: 2,010 spread situations and 133 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 3.98 on the spread and 3.54 on the total.

8of 10
Los Angeles have gone under outdoors after a loss
2021-2026, McVay and Stafford · 37 of 78 elsewhere

On totals of 41.5 to 50; this game is 43.5, inside that.

Why 64
  1. The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 47% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
  2. Agreement No other signal on this side.
64
score

Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.

Game trends, every game →

Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. A player and stat gets one verdict on this page: when reads disagree we weigh them, this season first, and name the side with the reasons against it.

History

No recent meetings on file.

Build this angle in the Angle Finder→All games this week→

The card

Betting Pass
The story

The number. The market has the Rams by 3 at a total of 43.5: Rams 23.2, Eagles 20.2 on paper.

How it plays. The total of 43.5 is ordinary. Eagles play slow (25th in plays a game).

What changed. Rams: no starter on the report. Eagles: TE Dallas Goedert doubtful.

Model favorites

No favorite from 5 signals. The angles are reading, not picks. Data as of: forecast Wed 4:10 PM ET; injuries Wed 12:50 PM ET; model Sun 12:05 PM ET.

This season, by score: 70-79: 1-2 (-0.5u). 3 graded bets, every card, no cherry-picking.