NFL Week 4 betting trends and angles

No official bet on Week 4 yet. The card is stamped each morning and checked again before kickoff. When nothing clears the bar, the card says so, and that is the bet.

32 team angles across 13 games: each team's record in this week's spot since its current coach and quarterback, next to the rest of its games and the league. A trend is a receipt, not a bet.

TEN at BALSunThe Titans have gone over 12 of 14 as an underdog of 7 or moreThe rest of the time: 16 of 40. League in this spot: 59% of 219. 2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025.12 of 1486%PIT at CLEThuThe Steelers have gone over 11 of 15 outdoors in prime timeThe rest of the time: 14 of 39. League in this spot: 51% of 274. 2023-2026, new coach in 2026, new QB in 2025.11 of 1573%PIT at CLEThuThe Browns have gone under 9 of 11 at home when our model likes themThe rest of the time: 17 of 42. League in this spot: 49% of 363. 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2026.9 of 1182%

NYJ at CHISunFree with an account.

PIT at CLEThuFree with an account.

KC at LVSunFree with an account.

GB at TBSunFree with an account.

JAX at CINSunFree with an account.

DET at CARSunFree with an account.

DET at CARSunFree with an account.

IND at WASSunFree with an account.

TEN at BALSunFree with an account.

GB at TBSunFree with an account.

MIA at MINSunFree with an account.

DET at CARSunFree with an account.

IND at WASSunFree with an account.

LA at PHISunFree with an account.

JAX at CINSunFree with an account.

JAX at CINSunFree with an account.

PIT at CLEThuFree with an account.

DAL at HOUSunFree with an account.

DAL at HOUSunFree with an account.

DET at CARSunFree with an account.

LAC at SEASunFree with an account.

IND at WASSunFree with an account.

PIT at CLEThuFree with an account.

GB at TBSunFree with an account.

DET at CARSunFree with an account.

LAC at SEASunFree with an account.

DAL at HOUSunFree with an account.

ARI at NYGSunFree with an account.

LAC at SEASunFree with an account.

And 26 more, on GB at TB, JAX at CIN, DET at CAR, IND at WAS, TEN at BAL, MIA at MIN and others.

8 slate-wide trends. 0 beat the luck line; the rest are the size of thing a search turns up on shuffled results, and we say so.

Weather is the one family that beats the luck line. A weather pick goes on the official card only when two forecasts agree at kickoff; these are the games to watch.

PIT at CLEThuForecast: 26 mph gusts. When gusts reach 25 mph at kickoff, the under hits.Gusts of 25+ at kickoff: 648-460 since 2000, past the luck line. Since 2021: 141-80 (64%).58%1108 games

TEN at BALSunForecast: 0.04 in of rain. When any rain falls at kickoff, the under hits.Any rain at kickoff: 554-451 since 2000, past the luck line. Since 2021: 119-91 (57%).55%1005 games

GB at TBSunForecast: 0.04 in of rain. When any rain falls at kickoff, the under hits.Any rain at kickoff: 554-451 since 2000, past the luck line. Since 2021: 119-91 (57%).55%1005 games

DET at CARSunForecast: 0.22 in of rain. When rain is falling at kickoff, the under hits.Rain at kickoff: 221-130 since 2000, past the luck line. Since 2021: 51-26 (66%).63%351 games