PIT at 
CLEPIT -3 / PIT -1.83Sun 9:30 AM
IND at 
WASIND -4.5 / WAS -0.51Sun 1:00 PM
ARI at 
NYGNYG -2.5 / ARI -0.22Sun 1:00 PM
DAL at 
HOUHOU -3 / HOU -3.33Sun 1:00 PM
GB at 
TBGB -1.5 / TB -1.3Sun 1:00 PM
JAX at 
CINCIN -3 / CIN -2.33Sun 1:00 PM
LA at 
PHILA -2.5 / PHI -2.67Sun 1:00 PM
NE at 
BUFBUF -5.5 / BUF -6.23Sun 1:00 PM
NYJ at 
CHICHI -3 / CHI -3.85Sun 1:00 PM
TEN at 
BALBAL -10.5 / BAL -10.07Sun 4:05 PM
MIA at 
MINMIN -10.5 / MIN -8.81Sun 4:25 PM
DEN at 
SFSF -3 / SF -3.29Sun 4:25 PM
KC at 
LVKC -6 / KC -4.69Sun 4:25 PM
LAC at 
SEASEA -6.5 / SEA -5.56Sun 8:20 PM
DET at 
CARDET -3 / DET -1.53Mon 8:15 PM
ATL at 
NONO -3.5 / NO -3.56Depth charts and who's out
Who's out
Steelers
Drew Allar QBCoach's DecisionOUT
Eli Heidenreich RBCoach's DecisionOUT
Will Howard QBCoach's DecisionOUT
Donte Kent CBOUT
Gabriel Rubio DECoach's DecisionOUT
8 more
Joey Porter Jr. CBOUT
Kevin Jobity Jr. DTCoach's DecisionOUT
DeShon Elliott SIR
Gennings Dunker GKneeIR
Jack Driscoll OTIR
Rico Dowdle RBToeQ
Brandin Echols CBConcussionQ
Jalen Ramsey CBWristQ
Browns
Joe Royer TEPersonalOUT
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LBNeckOUT
Dillon Gabriel QBBackIR
Dylan Sampson RBKneeIR
Alex Wright DEAchillesIR
10 more
Edefuan Ulofoshio LBBicepsIR
Elijah Chatman DTQuadricepsIR
Kalia Davis DTQuadricepsIR
Kendrick Green GIR
Tylan Wallace WRKneeQ
Elgton Jenkins CConcussionQ
Grant Delpit SShoulderQ
Teven Jenkins GBackQ
Tyson Campbell CBKneeQ
Tytus Howard OTKneeQ
Every read on this page assumes the man is on the field. Designations as of 2026-09-30.
The game
The model's play
Nothing on the official card for this game.
Weather at kickoff
Best price
The books have not been polled for this game yet.
The setting
The forecast has gusts to 26 miles an hour. Not enough on its own to move a total, but it is real.
The matchup
Steelers with the ballBrowns: send it at Rodgers.
Browns4thnow 24thBrowns1stplay slow 5th-slowestrarely play two-high lowestrarely sit in zone 4th-lowestBrowns with the ballBrowns: find Jr. against man.
Steelers16thnow 3rdSteelers19thnow 8thSteelers10thnow 2ndBig ranks are the 2025 regular season, 1st to 32nd, 1st best at the job either side; "now" is 2026 so far (2 to 3 games a team, too few to trust alone). top 8 bottom 8
The game plan in words, and every rank (2025 regular season)
Steelers with the ballWhat they like to do McCarthy's Steelers play slow (5th-slowest).
Where they win and lose Middle of the league on both sides of the ledger.
What the Browns defense brings They rarely play two-high (lowest) and rarely sit in zone (4th-lowest) and they get pressure (1st) and shut offenses down (4th).
What works against them Nothing on the ledger stands out; it comes down to the matchup below.
Where the two meet Browns: send it at Rodgers. Blitz rate 28.0%, 13th. Rodgers falls to -0.17 EPA when blitzed, 32nd of 36. Steelers: find Metcalf against man. In 2025: 0.34 EPA a target vs man on 27 targets, 36th of 106 among receivers with 50+ targets. Browns played man 40.8% in 2025, 5th.
Browns with the ballWhat they like to do Monken's Browns are middle of the league in how they play.
Where they win and lose They cannot throw it (worst), cannot complete a pass (worst) and cannot move the ball (2nd-worst).
What the Steelers defense brings A middle-of-the-league defense in how it plays and how it holds up.
What works against them Make them throw it (worst). Play tight and make every throw hard (worst).
Where the two meet Browns: find Jr. against man. In 2025: 0.24 EPA a target vs man on 39 targets, 53rd of 106 among receivers with 50+ targets. Steelers played man 35.2% in 2025, 11th. Steelers: go get the ball. Steelers take it away 2.2%, 10th. Browns throw picks 3.0%, 4th-most.
Pittsburgh
Cleveland
The bets
What the model likes
Nothing on the official card for this game.
The information
All the evidence
Player angles
No posted player line has an angle firing on it this week.
Player trends
Game angles
6 more game angles
Game trends
A lean is where a record points. Only a record past the luck line is a bet; the rest is reading. The bar's tick is the line to beat. Confidence runs from 50, a coin flip, to 100.
Every read in full: the scores, the story and the receipts
The player lines
No player lines posted for this game yet.
Player trends
Pittman: 8 of his last 10 games on the road as a favorite with 6+ catches.
Michael PittmanWR on the road as a favorite with 6+ catchesWhy 77
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 8 of 10 (80%) against a 39% baseline, 60% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
Quinshon JudkinsRB at home as an underdog with 50+ rushing yardsWhy 72
- The story No view on this one.
- The evidence 5 of 6 (83%) against a 36% baseline, 58% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
How this is graded
The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one.
Team trends
The last time the Browns were here, Dec 8, 2011: lost to the Steelers by 11 as a 14-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 94 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Steelers.
The last time the Browns were here, Dec 8, 2011: lost to the Steelers by 11 as a 14-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 95 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Steelers.
See all 10 team trends
The last time the Browns were here, Dec 8, 2011: lost to the Steelers by 11 as a 14-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 98 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Steelers.
Inside the luck line: 67 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the under.
Cleveland have gone under at home when our model likes themOn totals of 35.5 to 42.5; this game is 38.5, inside that.
On the card, 1.5uWhy 82
- The evidence 9 of 11 (82%) against a 40% baseline, 63% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 4 other signals on the same side.
- Where it went On the card, 1.5u.
Cleveland have covered at home in a division gameWhy 78
- The evidence 7 of 9 (78%) against a 37% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
- The gap Our number 1.2 points off the market on this side.
- Where it went On the card, 0.5u.
Pittsburgh have gone over outdoors in prime timeOn totals of 34 to 46.5; this game is 38.5, inside that.
Why 72
- The evidence 11 of 15 (73%) against a 36% baseline, 57% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement No other signal on this side.
Pittsburgh have gone under as a favorite in a division gameOn totals of 34 to 48.5; this game is 38.5, inside that.
On the card, 1.5uWhy 62
- The evidence 6 of 8 (75%) against a 50% baseline, 52% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 4 other signals on the same side.
- Where it went On the card, 1.5u.
Pittsburgh have covered in a division gameWhy 62
- The evidence 14 of 19 (74%) against a 53% baseline, 59% after shrinking for sample size.
- Agreement 1 other signal on the same side.
Against the spread and the total, as far back as the current head coach and starting quarterback go (at least three seasons; each card says how far, and what changed). The second bar is the same team everywhere else, which is the number that tells you whether the first one means anything.
Model plays carry a live record. Prop spots and trends are situational reads, and no prop verdict has a graded record yet. A player and stat gets one verdict on this page: when reads disagree we weigh them, this season first, and name the side with the reasons against it.
History
Last meetings
- 2025 wk 17Steelers at BrownsBrowns won, Browns covered6-13
- 2025 wk 6Browns at SteelersSteelers won, Steelers covered9-23
- 2024 wk 14Browns at SteelersSteelers won, Steelers covered14-27
Against the spread in these meetings: 3-2 to Browns, on closing numbers.
The card
Betting PassThe number. The market has the Steelers by 2.5 at a total of 38.5: Steelers 20.5, Browns 18 on paper.
How it plays. The total of 38.5 is low. Steelers play slow (28th in plays a game). The forecast has gusts to 26, which leans the passing game down. The ball goes to the ground, so Warren and Judkins carry it more; the books raise rushing lines for weather (rushing overs 49% since 2019) and do not cut passing lines enough (passing overs 33% in wind), so the passing unders are the edge and the rushing overs are the story at a fair price.
What changed. Steelers: LCB Joey Porter Jr. out. Browns: no starter on the report.
Model favorites
Two favorites from 12 signals: the total and a side. Data as of: forecast Wed 4:10 PM ET; injuries Wed 12:50 PM ET; model Sun 12:05 PM ET.
The total
4 reasons for, 1 againstA side
4 reasons for, 1 againstHow the score works
Score is how much we trust a bet. 50 is a coin flip; the number is how far past it the evidence pushes: reasons for minus reasons against, and a reason from something with a years-long record counts more than a trend. Units follow it: a bet backed by a tracked record is 1 unit, 1.5 at 80 or more; a bet whose logic is sound but unproven is half a unit, and only at plus money or alongside a 1-unit bet on the same game. Click a bet for its reasons.