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College recruiting · how the numbers are made

How our recruiting grades work

Every number we put on a recruit, graded in public.

Program strength says what a school's offer is worth. Offer strength turns a recruit's offers into a grade and shows its hit rate on 11 past classes beside the industry composite. The fit table says where a size starts. Nothing here reads film or anyone else's rankings.

Program strength

0 to 100 per program

Three parts, each a percentile among the 139 programs we score (the FBS plus the FCS schools with a recruiting page). Strength is 45% results, 35% NFL output and 20% selectivity. Notre Dame leads today at 96: results 99, NFL output 94, selectivity 89.

PartWhat it countsWhere it comes from
ResultsOur power rating over the last three seasons: opponent-adjusted scoring margin, single-game margins capped at 28, 2.5 points of home field, weighted 0.5, 0.3, 0.2 newest first. The season in progress counts once it has games.Every FBS game since 2013 in our own game file; the same method as our team ratings.
NFL outputOver the last ten draft classes: players drafted per class, and the pro value those picks have produced (weighted approximate value). Half each.The draft record by school, joined to Pro Football Reference's approximate value by name and draft year.
SelectivityCommits taken per offer extended, counted among recruits with at least one offer on record that cycle, so a program's commits and offers are counted on the same population. A program needs 15 offers on record; fewer, and it takes the field median.Our offer graph. A cycle counts when it holds 1,000 offers, 300 offered recruits and 50 commits; today only the 2027 cycle does, and the 2016-2026 classes arrive in phase 2.

The top ten today

of 139
#ProgramStrengthResultsNFL outputSelectivity
1Notre Dame logo Notre Dame96999489
2Ohio State logo Ohio State931009965
3LSU logo LSU91959868
4Texas logo Texas91948986
5Georgia logo Georgia90989861
6Oregon logo Oregon89939080
7Utah logo Utah88948583
8Iowa logo Iowa88899183
9Alabama logo Alabama879710041
10Oklahoma logo Oklahoma87789594
Every program's number with its parts is on the hub and its own page. For a past recruiting cycle the number is recomputed as the program stood then (results from the three seasons before it, draft classes before it), so the backtest below never reads a 2026 season into a 2012 grade.

Offer strength

a recruit's grade, read off his offers

Nobody here watches film. The grade is the market's: who offered, how strong those programs are, and how rarely they offer. It sits beside the industry composite on every recruit page and never replaces it.

RuleWhat it does
One offerProgram strength times the program's selectivity that cycle (commits per offer, floored at 0.02). A dated offer in a covered cycle uses the program's own rate; an undated archive offer uses the cycle's median. Selectivity enters as its square root, capped at twice the cycle median: taken raw, a Clemson offer (25 commits from 79 offers) was worth six Alabama offers (14 from 258).
CommittedThe program he is committed to counts double, and counts as an offer whether or not the post was found. On the 2010-2020 classes this lifted the draft AUC from 0.659 to 0.688.
The gradeThe sum of his top 8 offers, scaled 0 to 100 against his class (100 is the strongest board in the class). Capping at 8 keeps a forty-offer board from beating ten offers from Georgia, Ohio State and Texas.
StarsDecimal, 1.0 to 5.0: one plus four times the square root of the grade over 100. A board a quarter as strong as the best in the class is 3.0 stars.

The hit rate: classes 2010-2020

36,589 recruits with both grades · 2,559 drafted
Tier within the classRecruitsDrafted, by our gradeDrafted, by the compositeNFL starter, by our gradeNFL starter, by the composite
Top 1001,10026.7%28.7%18.2%24.8%
101-3002,20016.9%17.4%10.9%13.4%
301-1,0007,70010.9%10.2%7.3%6.2%
1,001 and on25,5894.1%4.2%2.9%2.7%
Drafted: in the NFL draft three to six years after his class. NFL starter: a season of 6+ games at 50%+ snaps three to eight years after his class, measured from the 2016 season on, so the starter columns cover the 2013-2020 classes. Tiers are ranks within each class by each grade, so the two columns compare the same number of recruits. On the draft the composite is ahead of us by 0.026 of AUC (0.714 to 0.688); on NFL starter seasons 0.723 to 0.696. Our grade reads the market with no film; the composite reads film and the market. Both sit on every recruit page, and this table is updated every night the graph rebuilds.

Class by class

AUC: 0.5 is a coin flip, 1.0 is perfect
ClassRecruitsOffers on recordDraftedDraft AUC, oursDraft AUC, compositeStarter AUC, oursStarter AUC, compositeOffer record
20102,62612,7682010.6450.681--dense
20112,74514,1021930.6820.705--dense
20123,03216,0822050.6820.72--dense
20133,31017,1452180.7230.7210.7080.735dense
20143,51818,7432180.7340.7310.70.705dense
20153,21713,7842000.7280.7150.7110.72dense
20163,6865,7002680.7550.6990.7180.697dense
20173,8021,2123050.7570.7180.730.729dense
20183,5157642610.7310.70.7110.723dense
20193,6531,1712530.7340.7310.7060.742dense
20203,4857962370.7220.7350.7130.754dense
Dense: 1,000 or more recruits with offers on record (the Rivals archive, 2010-2016, 9,000 to 19,000 offers a class). Thin: the 2017-2021 archive lists offers for a few hundred recruits a class, so most of those grades rest on the commit alone. The 2016-2026 pull in phase 2 fills them.

Where his size starts

For a recruit's position, the starters since 2022 within an inch of his height and seven percent of his weight, by conference and program, and which of his offers have started that size.

LineWhat it does
Starter, the rule50% or more of offensive or defensive snaps in six or more games in a season, the line the NFL side uses.
Starter, the stand-in we can compute todayCollege snap counts are not public, so the table uses the nearest line our weekly stat files allow: six or more games and one of the position's starting slots on his team that season by volume (tackles on defense, targets at receiver and tight end, touches at running back, dropbacks at quarterback, games then our rank on the line). QB 1, RB 1, WR 3, TE 1, OT 2, IOL 3, EDGE 2, IDL 2, LB 2, CB 2, S 2.
SizesHeight and weight as listed on the recruit record out of high school, then the career and draft records by name. 10,522 starter seasons carry a size; a starter with none is left out.

Need and room

Per program and position group, the bodies on the roster by years left, who is in his last year, portal exits and arrivals over three seasons, this cycle's commits and the NIL money on the roster at the spot. It fills the need section on every program page, the Need card on every College Team HQ and the "who needs him" line on every recruit page.

LineWhat it does
Years leftFrom each player's recruiting class on the five-year clock: class 2024 and later has two or more seasons left; class 2022 is in his last year. Walk-ons and unranked transfers can have no class on file; they are counted as bodies and named as unknown, never guessed.
Portal, three seasonsExits are players who left the program through the 2024, 2025 and 2026 portal feeds; arrivals are the ones who landed there. A spot that keeps leaking is thin even when the bodies are there.
RoomSupply is players with two or more years left plus this cycle's commits at the spot. Against the 68 programs mapped (the power conferences and Notre Dame), the bottom third is thin, the top third stocked, the rest even. The program's thinnest spot is the thin label first, then supply against the group's median, then exits.
NIL on rosterThe sum of our model price for the players at the spot. A recruit's own number never appears; minors get recruiting facts only.
SpecialistsKickers, punters and long snappers are not mapped.

STM odds

where he commits (provisional)

For a recruit who has not committed, his odds at each program that offered him, from the dated recruit graph only: no expert picks, ratings or articles. The odds add to 100% across his offers (a program that never offered is not in the model), and every number on a page carries the three lines that move it most. Provisional: one dated class trains it today; when the history for classes 2016 to 2026 lands, the newest finished class becomes the holdout.

The holdout: commits since 2026-07-01

212 commits, trained on the 1,798 before
ModelBrier scoreTop pick right
STM odds0.72442%
Visits only (official and unofficial visits, nothing else)0.83523%
Even split across his offers0.9124%
Each row is a commit we had dated, cut the day before he announced it. Brier score: per recruit, the sum over his offers of (odds minus what happened) squared; lower is better, 0 is perfect. On these commits the model beats the visits-only baseline. The published model is refit on every dated commit.

Calibration on the holdout

said vs happened
Odds we gaveProgramsAverage oddsCommitted there
0-10%3,7522%2%
10-20%23014%18%
20-30%10824%23%
30-40%6234%34%
40-50%4145%42%
50-60%2254%46%
60-80%2569%56%
80-100%2990%76%
Above 50% the holdout runs thin and the model is too sure of itself; read a big number as a lean, not a lock.

The lines

weight in the fitted model
LineWhat it isWeight
StrengthThe program's strength over the best program on his board.+2.67
Official visitAn official visit there before the day.+2.05
Unofficial visitsUp to two unofficial visits there.+0.74
Camp or junior dayA camp or junior day there.+0.74
DistanceMiles from his high school to campus, on a log scale (CFBD locations).-1.41
In-stateThe program is in his home state.+0.61
NeedThe program's room at his position: players with two or more years left against other programs, thin, even or stocked. This cycle's commits are left out, or a commit would make his own spot look stocked.+0.01
Offered earlyHis offer was among the earliest third of that program's offers in his class.+0.14
Decommitted beforeHe decommitted from that program earlier.-0.82
Last contactDays since the last offer, visit or camp with that program, on a log scale.-3.95
A positive weight lifts a program's odds when it is higher on that line than his other offers; the three reasons beside each number are the lines with the biggest pull for that program against the rest of his board. Every line uses events before the day only.

Best fits

Three of a recruit's offers, one line each, ranked on need x fit x room x odds: how thin the program is at his spot (the need map), whether it has started players his size since 2022 (the starter tables), how many at his spot are in their last year, and, while he is uncommitted, his STM odds there. Each part is scaled from 0.35 to 1 and the four multiply, so one weak part pulls a program down without zeroing it. Recruiting facts only; the agent kit ranks every program the same way.

Boards that looked like his

trajectory comps

For every recruit in the live class, the past recruits whose offer boards looked most like his, and what became of them; for every drafted player since 2015 with a board, the "next" page: the 2027 recruits whose boards look most like his did. History, never a forecast.

LineWhat it does
PositionThe eight need-map groups; an athlete matches athletes. A board never matches across groups.
SizeHeight and weight against the group, out of high school.
Strength mixThe program strength of his eight best offers, best first, as each program stood in his cycle. The best offers weigh most.
VolumeHow many programs had offered, on a log scale: 30 offers is not twice 15.
TimingHow early the first power-conference offer came and the offers in the 90 days before, once both boards are dated. Every board is cut the same number of days before signing day.
Today's limitOffers before 2027 carry no dates in our record yet, so a past board is the one he held at signing and the timing lines sit out. The 247 history pull for classes 2016 to 2026 is landing now; each night's rebuild cuts every dated board at the same month. Classes 2016 to 2026 hold few boards today, so most comps come from 2010 to 2015.
OutcomesWhere he signed, drafted (year, round, pick) and NFL seasons as a starter (six or more games at half the snaps). A pick is credited only when the draft record names the school he signed with, or one pick of that name at his position after a transfer; starter seasons count only for a credited pick.
Match100 is an identical board; the number falls with the weighted distance between the two. It ranks boards, it is not a chance of anything.

Risers

The daily risers card ranks the live class by the gain in offer strength over the last seven days, from dated offers only. A recruit under 18 is shown with recruiting facts and the crests of the programs that offered, never a dollar figure, a handle or a face until the page is claimed.

Lines that do not move

No ratings, rankings, predictions or articles from any recruiting service are inputs to these numbers; the industry composite is shown beside our grade, never inside it. Recruits are mostly minors: name, position, class, school, hometown, size and dated recruiting events only. No national rank below the top 500 is printed.