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Week 9 · Saturday, October 31 · 3:30 PM ET

Florida at Georgia

Georgia -10.5Neutral site · SEC
Total 56.5
The story

The script. The market has Georgia by 10.5 at a total of 56.5: Georgia 33.5, Florida 23 on paper. Georgia ahead means Frazier carries it late; Florida chasing means Philo throws, and Wilson and Brown get the volume.

How it plays. The total of 56.5 is ordinary for college. A neutral field. Conference play.

What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.

The read

Georgia is favored by 10.5 on a neutral field against Florida, and the total is 56.5. Our number has Georgia by 14.6, so the lean is Georgia -10.5. A lean, not a play.

Spread
Georgia -10.5
Florida +10.5
Total
56.5
Over and under
Moneyline
Georgia -425
Florida +330

Our number vs the market

The lean
Georgia -10.5
A lean, not a play
Our number
Georgia by 14.6
Market has Georgia -10.5
Gap
4.1 pts
Between our number and the market

College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.

The card

Over 53.5 (-110)Watching · 0 units
Our total 58.2 against the 53.5 opener, 4.7 points over it; totals are on probation: 34-35 at the opener this season, under break-even · one kind, a read: a rule · take the over at 53.5 or lower · Our Sunday total off the opening total, the side it points at: B 4+ points any week, C 3-4 points from week 6. Tuned on 2014-2020; 2021-25 at the opener 57% at 4+ points, 57% at 3-4 from week 6. This season at the opener: 34-35. · stamped 2026-10-25

Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.

Where the money is

Bets is the share of tickets; money is the share of dollars. When the money runs well ahead of the bets, fewer people are betting bigger on that side, the move bettors call sharp money.

Spread

Florida+10.5-10.5Georgia
Bets35%65%
Money10%90%

Georgia: 65% of the bets, 90% of the money. Fewer people, betting bigger.

Since 2018: when the money ran 20 or more points ahead of the bets on a side, the money side covered 50.4% (532-524-14, 1,070 games). No better than a coin flip.

Total

Over56.556.5Under
Bets44%56%
Money62%38%

56% of the bets are on the under, but 62% of the money is on the over.

Since 2018: when most of the bets sat on one side and most of the money on the other, the money side hit 50.4% (687-675-13, 1,375 games). No better than a coin flip.

Moneyline

Florida+330-425Georgia
Bets10%90%
Money79%21%

90% of the bets are on Georgia, but 79% of the money is on Florida.

Bets and money splits via DraftKings, as of Sun 5:05 PM ET. One book's customers, not the whole market.

Who carries it
Florida
  • QB Aaron Philo 224 passing yards a game in 6 games
  • RB Jadan Baugh 111 rushing yards a game in 6 games, 98 last season
  • RB Duke Clark 44 rushing yards a game in 6 games, 24 last season
  • WR Dallas Wilson 63 receiving yards a game in 6 games, 39 last season
  • WR Vernell Brown III 68 receiving yards a game in 4 games, 52 last season
  • WR Bailey Stockton 43 receiving yards a game in 6 games
Georgia
  • QB Gunner Stockton 209 passing yards a game in 5 games, 204 last season
  • RB Nate Frazier 53 rushing yards a game in 4 games, 68 last season
  • RB Bo Walker 26 rushing yards a game in 5 games, 25 last season
  • WR Craig Dandridge 35 receiving yards a game in 5 games
  • WR Talyn Taylor 44 receiving yards a game in 4 games, 6 last season
  • WR Sacovie White 27 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 9 last season

From the game logs, this season first. College has no published depth chart or injury report; these are the players who actually carried it.

The game plan
Florida with the ball

What they like to do. Florida play slow (19th-slowest).

Where they win and lose. They throw interceptions (9th-worst) and cannot throw it (25th-worst).

What the Georgia defense brings. They shut the run down (10th) and keep it in front (22nd) and they cannot get a sack (20th-worst).

What works against them. Make them throw: they give it away (9th-worst). Make them throw it (25th-worst).

Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.

Georgia with the ball

What they like to do. Georgia play fast (18th).

Where they win and lose. They protect the football (20th).

What the Florida defense brings. A middle-of-the-country defense.

What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.

Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.

From every play of the 2025 season, ranked against the 138 FBS teams. College has no blitz or coverage charting yet, so the plan reads strengths against weaknesses.

Head to head since 2013

Georgia 9-4 in the series over these 13 games.

2025-11-01Georgia 24 at Florida 20Florida covered, Florida +7
2024-11-02Florida 20 at Georgia 34Florida covered, Georgia -14.5
2023-10-28Georgia 43 at Florida 20Georgia covered, Florida +14
2022-10-29Florida 20 at Georgia 42Florida covered, Georgia -23
2021-10-30Georgia 34 at Florida 7Georgia covered, Florida +14
2020-11-07Florida 44 at Georgia 28Florida covered, Georgia -3
2019-11-02Georgia 24 at Florida 17Georgia covered, Florida +6.5
2018-10-27Florida 17 at Georgia 36Georgia covered, Georgia -7
Florida →Georgia →
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