SMU at 
Syracuse
Total 56.5
The script. The market has SMU by 9.5 at a total of 56.5: SMU 33, Syracuse 23.5 on paper. SMU ahead means Raphael carries it late; Syracuse chasing means Angeli throws, and Hatcher and Ross-Simmons get the volume.
How it plays. The total of 56.5 is ordinary for college. Conference play.
What changed. No injury report or depth chart for college yet; the names above are the last ones we saw carrying it.
SMU is favored by 9.5 on the road against Syracuse, and the total is 56.5. Our number has SMU by 11.7, so the lean is SMU -9.5. A lean, not a play. SMU has covered 8 of 11 in conference play when our model likes them, 2023-2026, better than the 14-17 they are everywhere else.
Our number vs the market
College is leans only. The model has no proven edge against the spread here, so this is where we disagree with the market, not a bet we are telling you to make.
The card
Nothing on the college card for this game yet.
Two registered rules, graded in public after each game: a player under when his line sits 50% or more above his last-10 average, and a total when our Sunday number sits 3 or more points off the opener. The kinds grade beside each pick counts the different kinds of evidence that agree: a rule, his history, the matchup, the script, the weather.
SMU- QB Kevin Jennings 320 passing yards a game in 5 games, 277 last season
- RB Kendrick Raphael 82 rushing yards a game in 5 games
- RB Dramekco Green 27 rushing yards a game in 4 games, 20 last season
- WR Yamir Knight 73 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 48 last season
- WR Jalen Cooper 60 receiving yards a game in 5 games, 31 last season
- WR Yannick Smith 58 receiving yards a game in 4 games
Syracuse- QB Steve Angeli 249 passing yards a game in 3 games, 319 last season
- RB Tylik Hill 95 rushing yards a game in 3 games, 22 last season
- RB Ahmad Miller 34 rushing yards a game in 3 games
- WR Umari Hatcher 107 receiving yards a game in 4 games
- WR Justus Ross-Simmons 54 receiving yards a game in 3 games, 44 last season
- WR Cole Weaver 17 receiving yards a game in 4 games
SMU with the ballWhat they like to do. SMU pass on early downs (19th).
Where they win and lose. They protect the quarterback (18th) and hit explosive passes (22nd).
What the Syracuse defense brings. They never take it away (16th-worst) and cannot get a sack (23rd-worst).
What works against them. Nothing on the ledger stands out.
Where the two meet. SMU protect the quarterback (18th); Syracuse cannot get a sack (23rd-worst). Edge SMU.
Syracuse with the ballWhat they like to do. Syracuse are middle of the country in how they play.
Where they win and lose. They throw interceptions (19th-worst), cannot throw it (22nd-worst) and never break a long run (22nd-worst).
What the SMU defense brings. They shut the run down (20th).
What works against them. Make them throw: they give it away (19th-worst). Make them throw it (22nd-worst). Load the box: they do not break long runs (22nd-worst).
Where the two meet. No strength meets a weakness here; it comes down to talent, and the power gap says who has it.
How each team covers in this spot
SMUSyracuseAgainst the spread and the total, the last three seasons plus this one, pushes left out. Only the conditions that are true of this game, only where the team has at least 8 games in the spot, and only where the team beats the whole league in that spot. The second bar is the same team everywhere else.
Player trends that apply to this game
Kevin JenningsQB has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite in conference play with 2+ passing touchdowns.Kendrick RaphaelRB has 5 of his last 6 games on the road in conference play with 50+ rushing yards.The second number is the point. Everyone posts the first one. Game logs through last season; this season joins the file as it is played.
Syracuse 18 at SMU 31Syracuse covered, SMU -17.5