A turnover-worthy play, or TWP, is a pass or a carry that should have been a turnover whether or not it was: an interceptable throw the defender dropped, a fumble the offense recovered, a ball put in harm's way that the defense failed to punish. It is a charting stat from PFF. Interceptions are rare and lucky; turnover-worthy plays are more frequent and stable, so TWP rate says more about a quarterback's decision-making than his interception total does.
Updated Sept. 16, 2026.
A quarterback throws 500 passes and 12 are intercepted. How many of the other 488 were interceptable? That question is the difference between judging a quarterback by his outcomes and by his process. Interceptions depend on the defender's hands; turnover-worthy plays depend on the throw. Year to year, a quarterback's TWP rate is far more stable than his interception rate, and it predicts next year's interceptions better than this year's interceptions do.
The companion stat is the big-time throw (BTT), a pass with excellent ball placement and timing into a tight window, usually downfield. The two together are PFF's summary of a quarterback's risk profile: high BTT and low TWP is the elite profile; high in both is the gunslinger; low in both is the game manager.
The stat is charted, so it involves judgment, and PFF does not publish its criteria in full. It cannot be rebuilt from play-by-play, which is why this site reports interceptions, interception rate and EPA lost on turnovers, and treats TWP as an external cross-check.
In 2021 Josh Allen threw 15 interceptions, but his turnover-worthy play rate was among the lowest in the league; in 2022 he threw 14 with a much higher TWP rate. The first season's interceptions were bad luck on a clean process; the second season's process had gotten looser, and the number said so before the picks did.
TWP rate = turnover-worthy plays / dropbacks (for quarterbacks) or / touches (for ball carriers), from PFF's charting. There is no public formula; the classification is a charter's judgment about whether the play deserved to be a turnover.
Under 2.5 percent of dropbacks is excellent; the league average sits around 3 to 3.5 percent; above 4.5 percent is a quarterback who is going to throw interceptions whatever his current total says.
For predicting the future, turnover-worthy plays. Interceptions are a sample of them, filtered through defenders' hands. For explaining a game that already happened, the interceptions are what counted.
PFF's positive counterpart: a pass with excellent placement and timing, usually into a tight window or deep downfield. Big-time throw rate and turnover-worthy play rate together describe a quarterback's aggression and his accuracy at the same time.
Category: Stats & Analytics. Part of the StickToTheModel NFL Encyclopedia.