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Week 2 · Sunday Sep 20 · Final

SteelersatPatriots

FinalPIT 3, NE 20Patriots by 17
SpreadNE -4.5Patriots covered
Total41.5stayed under, 23 points
OpenedNE -4.5moved 0 points by kickoff

The passing game. Expect the Steelers to find nowhere to throw.

Sunday: Steelers threw for 187 yards and 0 touchdowns.

The model's reads, Under 41.5: it won.

The depth charts as they stand today.

Patriots pass defense, 15th, against a passing game ranked 28th.

Longer bar, better unit.

Steelers with the ball

Steelers offensePatriots defense
28th
Passing
15th
3rd
Run game
12th
22nd
Pass rush
9th
28th
Third down
5th
20th
Big plays
16th
16th
Turnovers
13th
17th
Red zone
13th

Patriots with the ball

Patriots offenseSteelers defense
6th
Passing
14th
22nd
Run game
26th
14th
Pass rush
17th
14th
Third down
8th
15th
Big plays
31st
29th
Turnovers
10th
20th
Red zone
5th

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 6 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps.

Steelers scored 3 against a team total of 18.5: under.

Steelers scored 3 against a team total of 18.5: under. the spread and total, split.

Patriots scored 20 against a team total of 23: under. the spread and total, split.

The situations on the schedule that fit this game.

This week · Patriots with three or more extra days of rest in the first four weeks against a first-year head coach
25-13
this game200020052010201520202025
25 covered13 did notevery game since 1999, 66%; since 2021 9-4

The last time the Patriots were here, Sep 19, 2004: beat the Cardinals by 11 as a 8-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 38 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Patriots.

This week · Patriots with three or more extra days of rest with an elite quarterback with the better head coach by two tiers
81-104
this game200020052010201520202025
81 covered104 did notevery game since 1999, 44%; since 2021 24-22

The last time the Patriots were here, Sep 19, 2004: beat the Cardinals by 11 as a 8-point favorite.

Inside the luck line: 185 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Steelers.

Searched this week: 1,401 spread situations and 79 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 4.01 on the spread and 3.21 on the total.

No player line on this game was archived with a read.

Nothing was on the official card for this game.