The longer bar is the better unit, and it takes its team's colour. A long coloured bar against a short grey one is where a side has the edge.
Colts with the ball
Colts offenseCommanders defense
25th
Passing
27th
6th
Run game
4th
10th
Pass rush
9th
11th
Third down
15th
13th
Big plays
18th
29th
Turnovers
15th
9thi
Red zone
25thi
Commanders with the ball
Commanders offenseColts defense
18th
Passing
29th
22nd
Run game
27th
12th
Pass rush
26th
23rd
Third down
11th
29th
Big plays
14thi
1st
Turnovers
27thi
7th
Red zone
18thi
Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 3 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps. "Faced" is the average rank of the units across from them so far.
Team trends
Each team's own record in a spot like this one, against its record everywhere else. A reason to lean, not a bet.
Commanders have gone over 20 of 27 as an underdog outdoorsmissed, 43 points
14 of 27 everywhere else, 2023-2026, new coach and QB in 2024 · points to Over 46.5
20 of 27in this spot
Commanders have covered 1 of the last 1 meetings
Last time, 2022 week 8: Commanders 17, Colts 16, Commanders covered.
1-0against the spread
Team angles
Every past game that looked like this one, counted by the side it covered. Neither side gets more than luck would give: nothing to bet on here, and that is the finding.
Colts -4.5could be luckcovered
647 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 473.
1.4xluck's count
Under 46.5could be luckhit, 43 points
1,694 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 1,697.
1.0xluck's count
The strongest angles behind each side, in plain words
Behind Under 46.5
Their D allows 13%+ more than league average to 6'3"+ receivers, and the opponent's D-line is below average. 128-73
Player trends
Each player's own record in a spot like this one, his best stat first.
Jonathan TaylorRBhit, 2 rush TD
Jonathan Taylor has 7 of his last 10 games as a favorite with a rushing touchdown. 13 of 31 everywhere else, 2024-2025.
7 of 10last 10
Terry McLaurinWR
Terry McLaurin has 8 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 50+ receiving yards. 15 of 26 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
8 of 10last 10
Jonathan TaylorRBhit, 95 rush yds
Jonathan Taylor has 9 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards. 22 of 31 everywhere else, 2024-2025.
9 of 10last 10
Player angles
No player line on this game was archived with a read.
Model plays
Graded: the official card went 0-1; picks on test went 1-1.
Over 46.5official, 1ulost -1u
Angle card, 2 reasons (53.2% in the 2020-2025 replay). Stamped Sat 12:24 PM ET.
Jonathan Taylor over 89.5 rushing yards (-115)on test, no stakewon, 95 rushing yards
Over 89.5 in 10 of 15 as a favorite. Stamped Wed 11:42 PM ET.
Chig Okonkwo over 23.5 receiving yards (-110)on test, no stakelost, 5 receiving yards
Over 23.5 in 8 of 12 at home as an underdog. Stamped Sat 12:24 PM ET.
Antonio Williams anytime TD (650)on test, no stake
Anytime TD priced past Kalshi's chance (new in 2026). Stamped Sat 12:24 PM ET.
9 more plays
Jonathan Taylor under 2.5 catcheswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 1 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
Keenan Allen over 34.5 receiving yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 3 when it stopped qualifying.
Terry McLaurin over 53.5 receiving yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 1 when it stopped qualifying.
Marcus Mariota over 212.5 passing yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 1 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
Where it turned: the passing game. Expect the Commanders to attack through the air all day.Sunday: Commanders threw for 232 yards and 1 touchdown.
Colts with the ball
