Avery Johnson
Kansas State#358 overallDraft Movement
Down 17 spots since Jul 20
Scouting Report
Avery Johnson is a thinly built dual-threat quarterback from Wichita, Kansas who burst onto the national scene as a true freshman for the Kansas State Wildcats, earning Pop-Tarts Bowl MVP honors in his debut season. His sophomore campaign in 2024 was a statistical breakthrough, as he shattered program records with 25 touchdown passes while also leading the entire Big 12 conference in rushing yards (605) among quarterbacks, becoming one of just five Power 4 quarterbacks to exceed 2,700 passing yards and 600 rushing yards in the same season. Analysts describe him as one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the country, and he rushed for 50 or more yards in seven games in 2024. Despite that production, Johnson entered early 2026 draft discussion cycles conspicuously absent from most evaluations, with his overall consensus rank sitting outside the top 400 for the 2027 class. Some evaluators were early proponents, grading Johnson as a second-round talent and slotting him among the top five 2026 QB prospects, citing his resilience and the NFL traits he put on tape in 2024. Their primary area of concern was Johnson's tendency to dead-lock into targets for an extra moment before releasing, a habit that exposes him to pressure at the next level. He grades in the middle of the quarterback class, and the significant gap between his statistical output and his draft perception is widely noted. He has been slotted as a mid-third-round value on some boards, while his 2024 passing grade of 72.9 ranked just 60th among FBS quarterbacks. His four fourth-quarter comeback victories in 2024 tied a program record, and his Rate Bowl performance at Chase Field in Phoenix, where he led Kansas State over Rutgers 44-41, demonstrated poise under pressure. Johnson enters his junior season needing to prove he can improve his ball placement and consistency from the pocket before scouts will elevate him beyond the Day 2 tier for the 2027 draft.
Strengths
- Explosive dual-threat ability that forced Big 12 defenses into impossible coverage compromises, ranking him as the top rushing QB in the conference in 2024 with 605 yards and 7 touchdowns
- Natural playmaking instincts with the ability to keep plays alive while maintaining downfield vision, keeping eyes downfield as he extends plays rather than tucking and running immediately
- Quick release mechanism with above-average arm velocity, particularly effective on intermediate routes and RPO concepts
- Clutch performer in high-leverage situations, evidenced by four fourth-quarter comeback victories in 2024, tying a program record, and a Pop-Tarts Bowl MVP performance as a true freshman
- Natural leadership presence that earned team captain honors as a sophomore, described by evaluators as bringing infectious competitive energy and accountability
- Catchable ball production, described by one analyst as having the most catchable drops of any Big 12 quarterback, indicating placement quality exceeds his completion percentage
- Low fumble rate despite heavy rushing usage, registering only 2 fumbles across his entire sophomore season of high-volume rushing production
Weaknesses
- Thinly built frame at 192 pounds raises legitimate durability concerns for a player who absorbs consistent contact as a rushing threat
- Inconsistent passing accuracy ranked just 60th among FBS quarterbacks in passing grade (72.9) in 2024, with particular issues on short and intermediate throws from compromised platforms
- Tendency to dead-lock into primary targets for an extra moment before throwing, a habit evaluators identify as the single most important thing to fix before the 2027 draft
- Turnover issues with 10 interceptions in 2024 despite his statistical dominance, with too many throws he simply should not attempt
- Tendency to abandon pocket progression too quickly in favor of scrambling, missing potential completions by not allowing routes to fully develop
- Deep ball accuracy inconsistent despite adequate arm strength, struggling with touch and anticipation on vertical concepts to the boundary
- Limited recognition from mainstream draft evaluation community, with his consensus rank outside the top 400 entering the 2027 draft cycle, suggesting a significant perception gap that he must close with a strong junior season
NFL Comparison
Kyler Murray-lite upside as a dual-threat playmaker who generates explosive plays with both arm and legs, though at a smaller and thinner build; projects similarly to a developmental Jalen Hurts archetype where rushing utility compensates for early passing deficiencies while pocket mechanics are refined
College Stats
2024 (So): 2,712 pass yards, 58% completion, 25 TD, 10 INT; 605 rush yards, 7 rush TD; 2025 (Jr): 2,385 pass yards, 60% completion, 18 TD, 6 INT; 8 rush TD
College Market Value
Our model prices him at $778K on the open college market, built from production, pedigree, role and Kansas State's program money. No credible deal has been reported for him this season.
The college fantasy model projects 15.5 PPG (QB23), after 13.9 PPG across 12 games last year.
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Measurables
Awards & Honors
Kansas Gatorade Player of the Year (high school); Pop-Tarts Bowl MVP (2023 season, freshman); Team Captain (sophomore year); Big 12 leading rusher among quarterbacks (2024)