Nick Chubb

Houston Texans·#21

Pos RBHt 5'11"Wt 225 lbExp 7 yrCollege Georgia

RB rankings →

Model Score

78.3 MODEL

2018

68.0

2019

71.5

2020

85.7

2021

86.7

2022

87.3

2024

79.0

2025

78.3

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Season Stats · 15 games

50643rd

Rush Yds

343rd

Rush TD

1356th

Rec

6760th

Rec Yds

350th

Total TD

5.958th

Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

-0.11255th

EPA / rush

4534th

Rush yds over exp

3.63

Efficiency

2.63s

Time to line

STM Take

The career arc from tier 1 (#3) in 2021 to tier 8 (#60) in 2025 is one of the steepest declines on the board, and it is entirely injury-driven. The 2025 game log (six of eight weeks under 7 PPR, with three under 2) shows the explosive cuts and contact balance that defined his Cleveland prime are gone. He is now a short-yardage complement to Mixon at age 30 with a rebuilt knee.

Chubb came out of Georgia as Cleveland's 2nd-round pick (35th overall) in 2018, sliding from the 1st round due to medical questions about his 2015 knee injury at UGA. He went on to make four straight Pro Bowls (2019-2022), post five consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons (2018-2022, including 1,494 yards in 2022), and reach STTM tier 1 #3 in 2021 as one of the league's premier rushing talents. A horrific Week 2 2023 knee injury (multiple ligaments torn against Pittsburgh) ended his Browns prime; Cleveland released him after the 2024 season and Houston signed him as a Joe Mixon complement.

Strengths

Four straight Pro Bowls (2019-2022), five consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons, and the 2021 tier 1 #3 finish establish a Hall-of-Very-Good career baseline.
Even at compromised health he still has the size (5'11"/227) and goal-line vision for short-yardage carries, which is the role Houston signed him to fill.

Concerns

The arc from tier 1 (#3) in 2021 to tier 8 (#60) in 2025 is monotonic since the 2023 knee tear. Three games under 2 PPR in 2025 show the bottom is real, not noise.
At 30 with a rebuilt knee plus the 2024 calf injury that further compromised his return, durability is the structural ceiling. Mixon's contract guarantees the lead role through 2026.

What to watch: Whether Houston retains him as the goal-line specialist for 2026 or releases him with the knowledge that the 2025 sample was as good as it will get.