NFL weather angles · Week 3
What's your angle?
Type it the way you'd say it. We check it against every NFL game since 1999.
This week's games that fit
Grouped by the angle they fit, from the latest forecast. Weather changes; we check again Sunday morning.
No Week 3 game has a weather angle in the forecast yet. We check daily through Sunday morning.
Every weather angle, against luck
Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. The luck line is the best record chance produces at each sample size after testing all 16 conditions together, so a record inside it cannot be told apart from luck.
| Condition | Record | Under | Luck line | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain at kickoff | 221-130 | 63.0% | 57.3% | Clears the luck line |
| Gusts of 25+ at kickoff | 648-460 | 58.5% | 54.3% | Clears the luck line |
| Gusts of 40+ | 120-70 | 63.2% | 59.7% | Clears the luck line |
| A half-inch of rain | 213-141 | 60.2% | 57.2% | Clears the luck line |
| Gusts of 20+ at kickoff | 1209-952 | 56.0% | 53.3% | Clears the luck line |
| Gusts of 30+ | 481-361 | 57.1% | 54.9% | Clears the luck line |
| Gusts of 25+ | 911-727 | 55.6% | 53.7% | Clears the luck line |
| Gusts of 30+ at kickoff | 297-217 | 57.8% | 56.1% | Clears the luck line |
| Sustained wind of 15+ | 384-290 | 57.0% | 55.4% | Clears the luck line |
| Rain on game day | 603-482 | 55.6% | 54.4% | Clears the luck line |
| Gusts of 20+ | 1556-1326 | 54.0% | 52.9% | Clears the luck line |
| Any rain at kickoff | 554-451 | 55.1% | 54.5% | Clears the luck line |
| A quarter-inch of rain | 374-294 | 56.0% | 55.4% | Clears the luck line |
| Sustained wind of 20+ | 103-81 | 56.0% | 59.8% | Inside the luck line |
| Snow | 187-207 | 47.5% | 56.9% | Leans over |
| Below freezing | 177-200 | 46.9% | 57.0% | Leans over |
Outdoor games, pushes left out, weather as it actually happened. Snow and freezing temperatures lean over.