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NFL weather angles · Week 3

What's your angle?

Type it the way you'd say it. We check it against every NFL game since 1999.

Unders when it's raining at kickoffGusts of 25 at kickoffA half-inch of rainHome teams off a lossor build with filters

This week's games that fit

Grouped by the angle they fit, from the latest forecast. Weather changes; we check again Sunday morning.

When rain is falling at kickoff, the under hits 63%

221-130 since 1999 · luck line 57.3%

TEN at NYGForecast 0.10 in rain at kickoffUnder 38.5See the matchup →
SEA at WASForecast 0.39 in rain at kickoffUnder 40.5See the matchup →

When a half-inch of rain falls, the under hits 60%

213-141 since 1999 · luck line 57.2%

TEN at NYGForecast 1.25 in rain on the dayUnder 38.5See the matchup →
SEA at WASForecast 0.72 in rain on the dayUnder 40.5See the matchup →

When gusts reach 25 mph at kickoff, the under hits 58%

648-460 since 1999 · luck line 54.3%

LAC at BUFForecast 26 mph gusts at kickoffUnder 50.5See the matchup →
TEN at NYGForecast 39 mph gusts at kickoffUnder 38.5See the matchup →
SEA at WASForecast 29 mph gusts at kickoffUnder 40.5See the matchup →

When gusts reach 30 mph, the under hits 57%

481-361 since 1999 · luck line 54.9%

TEN at NYGForecast 49 mph gusts on the dayUnder 38.5See the matchup →
SEA at WASForecast 30 mph gusts on the dayUnder 40.5See the matchup →

When gusts top 40 mph, the under hits 63%

120-70 since 1999 · luck line 59.7%

TEN at NYGForecast 49 mph gusts on the dayUnder 38.5See the matchup →

Every weather angle, against luck

Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. The luck line is the best record chance produces at each sample size after testing all 16 conditions together, so a record inside it cannot be told apart from luck.

ConditionRecordUnderLuck lineVerdict
Rain at kickoff221-13063.0%57.3%Clears the luck line
Gusts of 25+ at kickoff648-46058.5%54.3%Clears the luck line
Gusts of 40+120-7063.2%59.7%Clears the luck line
A half-inch of rain213-14160.2%57.2%Clears the luck line
Gusts of 20+ at kickoff1209-95256.0%53.3%Clears the luck line
Gusts of 30+481-36157.1%54.9%Clears the luck line
Gusts of 25+911-72755.6%53.7%Clears the luck line
Gusts of 30+ at kickoff297-21757.8%56.1%Clears the luck line
Sustained wind of 15+384-29057.0%55.4%Clears the luck line
Rain on game day603-48255.6%54.4%Clears the luck line
Gusts of 20+1556-132654.0%52.9%Clears the luck line
Any rain at kickoff554-45155.1%54.5%Clears the luck line
A quarter-inch of rain374-29456.0%55.4%Clears the luck line
Sustained wind of 20+103-8156.0%59.8%Inside the luck line
Snow187-20747.5%56.9%Leans over
Below freezing177-20046.9%57.0%Leans over

Outdoor games, pushes left out, weather as it actually happened. Snow and freezing temperatures lean over.

Go deeper

Build your own angleThis week's lines