How often does the under hit when gusts top 40 mph?

63.2% of the time: 120-70 across 190 NFL games since 1999.

Betting › Weather angles › Gusts of 40+

When gusts top 40 mph, the under hits 63%

Q: Has it always worked?

It finished above break-even in 17 of 27 seasons.

Q: Is it one lucky number?

26 of 120 wins came by 3 points or fewer.

Q: Is it just a few teams?

It has happened at 24 different home stadiums.

63.2% 120-70 to the under
190 games since 1999

40%50%60%70%

break-even 52.4%luck line 59.7%

+39.1 units at -110 since 1999. Since 2021: 18-13, 58%.

It clears both lines. Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Luck alone reaches 59.7% at this many games, after testing all 16 weather conditions we track.Luck line: we shuffle every season's results, re-score all 16 conditions, keep the best, and repeat 1,000 times. The line is where the top 5% of those runs land.

This is the weather that actually happened. A bet is placed on a forecast, so check it again Sunday morning.

This week

No Week 3 game has it in the forecast yet. We check the forecast daily through Sunday morning.

Has it always worked?

Above break-even in 17 of 27 seasons. Best year: 2017, at 7-1. Worst: 2013, at 4-8.

Is it one lucky number?

Partly. 26 of 120 wins came by 3 points or fewer, and the typical win landed 8.5 points under the total.

Is it just a few teams?

Partly. It has happened at 24 different home stadiums. The most at any one is BUF, with 24 of 190.

Does it hold when you cut it?

It stays above break-even in 6 of 6 cuts by week and by total.

Weeks 1 to 6	16-10	62%
Weeks 7 to 12	44-26	63%
Week 13 on	60-34	64%
Total under 42	63-36	64%
Total 42 to 47	41-24	63%
Total over 47	16-10	62%

Every game that fit

All 190 outdoor games since 1999, through Week 2 of 2026. Not a highlight reel; pushes left out.

Game	Weather	Total	Final	Result
2025 wk 17 · NO at TEN	41 mph	39.5	60	Over by 20.5
2025 wk 11 · DET at PHI	40 mph	46.5	25	Under by 21.5
2025 wk 11 · TB at BUF	42 mph	46.5	76	Over by 29.5
2025 wk 11 · CIN at PIT	41 mph	48.5	46	Under by 2.5
2024 wk 18 · CLE at BAL	41 mph	42.5	45	Over by 2.5
2024 wk 17 · ATL at WAS	44 mph	46.5	54	Over by 7.5
2024 wk 17 · NYJ at BUF	41 mph	44.5	54	Over by 9.5
2024 wk 6 · BUF at NYJ	42 mph	42	43	Over by 1
2024 wk 1 · ARI at BUF	41 mph	46	62	Over by 16
2023 wk 19 · PIT at BUF	42 mph	39.5	48	Over by 8.5
2023 wk 15 · BAL at JAX	47 mph	42.5	30	Under by 12.5
2023 wk 15 · NYJ at MIA	40 mph	36	30	Under by 6
2023 wk 10 · DEN at BUF	40 mph	47.5	46	Under by 1.5
2023 wk 3 · IND at BAL	41 mph	43.5	41	Under by 2.5
2022 wk 16 · LV at PIT	48 mph	38.5	23	Under by 15.5
2022 wk 16 · BUF at CHI	42 mph	40	48	Over by 8
2022 wk 16 · NO at CLE	55 mph	32	27	Under by 5
2022 wk 16 · CIN at NE	47 mph	42	40	Under by 2
2022 wk 13 · BUF at NE	46 mph	43.5	34	Under by 9.5
2022 wk 12 · LV at SEA	45 mph	47.5	74	Over by 26.5
2022 wk 11 · NYJ at NE	41 mph	38.5	13	Under by 25.5
2022 wk 9 · MIA at CHI	40 mph	46	67	Over by 21
2022 wk 5 · PIT at BUF	41 mph	44	41	Under by 3
2022 wk 1 · SF at CHI	50 mph	38	29	Under by 9
2021 wk 19 · PHI at TB	46 mph	45.5	46	Over by 0.5

Show all 190 games

Game	Weather	Total	Final	Result
2021 wk 18 · NYJ at BUF	41 mph	43	37	Under by 6
2021 wk 18 · CIN at CLE	42 mph	38	37	Under by 1
2021 wk 14 · BAL at CLE	41 mph	44	46	Over by 2
2021 wk 14 · NO at NYJ	42 mph	42	39	Under by 3
2021 wk 13 · NE at BUF	59 mph	40	24	Under by 16
2021 wk 7 · NO at SEA	46 mph	42	23	Under by 19
2020 wk 14 · PIT at BUF	42 mph	48.5	41	Under by 7.5
2020 wk 12 · SEA at PHI	49 mph	50	40	Under by 10
2020 wk 10 · CIN at PIT	56 mph	45.5	46	Over by 0.5
2020 wk 10 · HOU at CLE	54 mph	46	17	Under by 29
2020 wk 10 · JAX at GB	51 mph	47	44	Under by 3
2020 wk 10 · PHI at NYG	42 mph	45	44	Under by 1
2020 wk 8 · TB at NYG	48 mph	47	48	Over by 1
2020 wk 8 · NE at BUF	47 mph	41	45	Over by 4
2020 wk 8 · TEN at CIN	41 mph	49.5	51	Over by 1.5
2020 wk 8 · LV at CLE	52 mph	48	22	Under by 26
2020 wk 8 · MIN at GB	50 mph	47	50	Over by 3
2020 wk 8 · ATL at CAR	67 mph	52	42	Under by 10
2019 wk 13 · OAK at KC	47 mph	49.5	49	Under by 0.5
2019 wk 13 · NYJ at CIN	40 mph	43	28	Under by 15
2019 wk 13 · TB at JAX	41 mph	46.5	39	Under by 7.5
2019 wk 12 · DAL at NE	43 mph	44.5	22	Under by 22.5
2019 wk 9 · WAS at BUF	41 mph	37	33	Under by 4
2019 wk 8 · PHI at BUF	56 mph	39.5	44	Over by 4.5
2019 wk 8 · LAC at CHI	42 mph	41	33	Under by 8
2018 wk 14 · NO at TB	47 mph	55	42	Under by 13
2018 wk 13 · DEN at CIN	52 mph	45	34	Under by 11
2018 wk 12 · PIT at DEN	41 mph	47.5	41	Under by 6.5
2018 wk 9 · LAC at SEA	46 mph	48.5	42	Under by 6.5
2018 wk 8 · TB at CIN	47 mph	55	71	Over by 16
2018 wk 7 · DAL at WAS	41 mph	40.5	37	Under by 3.5
2018 wk 6 · LA at DEN	45 mph	50	43	Under by 7
2017 wk 19 · TEN at NE	68 mph	48	49	Over by 1
2017 wk 16 · OAK at PHI	44 mph	46	29	Under by 17
2017 wk 16 · DEN at WAS	47 mph	39.5	38	Under by 1.5
2017 wk 16 · IND at BAL	41 mph	41	39	Under by 2
2017 wk 14 · IND at BUF	46 mph	36.5	20	Under by 16.5
2017 wk 11 · JAX at CLE	49 mph	37	26	Under by 11
2017 wk 11 · KC at NYG	48 mph	44.5	21	Under by 23.5
2017 wk 5 · NYJ at CLE	51 mph	41.5	31	Under by 10.5
2016 wk 15 · PIT at CIN	47 mph	45.5	44	Under by 1.5
2016 wk 11 · GB at WAS	52 mph	48.5	66	Over by 17.5
2016 wk 11 · PIT at CLE	48 mph	45.5	33	Under by 12.5
2016 wk 6 · ATL at SEA	49 mph	45.5	50	Over by 4.5
2015 wk 18 · GB at WAS	42 mph	47	53	Over by 6
2015 wk 8 · MIA at NE	54 mph	51	43	Under by 8
2014 wk 20 · GB at SEA	48 mph	44.5	50	Over by 5.5
2014 wk 12 · ARI at SEA	42 mph	42	22	Under by 20
2013 wk 19 · IND at NE	56 mph	51	65	Over by 14
2013 wk 19 · NO at SEA	54 mph	44	38	Under by 6
2013 wk 16 · MIA at BUF	42 mph	42	19	Under by 23
2013 wk 16 · MIN at CIN	51 mph	48	56	Over by 8
2013 wk 12 · DEN at NE	45 mph	54	65	Over by 11
2013 wk 12 · DAL at NYG	46 mph	44.5	45	Over by 0.5
2013 wk 12 · NYJ at BAL	44 mph	38	22	Under by 16
2013 wk 11 · BAL at CHI	54 mph	41	43	Over by 2
2013 wk 11 · CLE at CIN	52 mph	40	61	Over by 21
2013 wk 9 · CHI at GB	42 mph	50.5	47	Under by 3.5
2013 wk 8 · SF at JAX	46 mph	40	52	Over by 12
2013 wk 3 · JAX at SEA	41 mph	39	62	Over by 23
2012 wk 20 · BAL at NE	40 mph	49.5	41	Under by 8.5
2012 wk 17 · DAL at WAS	47 mph	49	46	Under by 3
2012 wk 13 · CLE at OAK	53 mph	39.5	37	Under by 2.5
2012 wk 10 · KC at PIT	42 mph	39.5	29	Under by 10.5
2012 wk 10 · HOU at CHI	42 mph	37	19	Under by 18
2012 wk 6 · CIN at CLE	40 mph	42	58	Over by 16
2011 wk 17 · BAL at CIN	44 mph	37.5	40	Over by 2.5
2011 wk 17 · PIT at CLE	43 mph	33	22	Under by 11
2011 wk 12 · TB at TEN	47 mph	43.5	40	Under by 3.5
2011 wk 10 · DET at CHI	50 mph	42.5	50	Over by 7.5
2011 wk 6 · STL at GB	40 mph	47	27	Under by 20
2011 wk 3 · ARI at SEA	44 mph	42.5	23	Under by 19.5
2010 wk 14 · NE at CHI	48 mph	37.5	43	Over by 5.5
2010 wk 14 · MIA at NYJ	49 mph	37.5	16	Under by 21.5
2010 wk 14 · TB at WAS	41 mph	41	33	Under by 8
2009 wk 16 · JAX at NE	41 mph	44.5	42	Under by 2.5
2009 wk 16 · SD at TEN	64 mph	47.5	59	Over by 11.5
2009 wk 14 · PIT at CLE	50 mph	34	19	Under by 15
2009 wk 7 · ARI at NYG	50 mph	46.5	41	Under by 5.5
2008 wk 17 · NE at BUF	59 mph	35	13	Under by 22
2008 wk 17 · KC at CIN	53 mph	40	22	Under by 18
2008 wk 17 · CLE at PIT	47 mph	33.5	31	Under by 2.5
2008 wk 16 · CIN at CLE	44 mph	31	14	Under by 17
2008 wk 15 · SD at KC	45 mph	41	43	Over by 2
2008 wk 14 · WAS at BAL	43 mph	34.5	34	Under by 0.5
2008 wk 13 · NO at TB	47 mph	44	43	Under by 1
2008 wk 8 · STL at NE	48 mph	41	39	Under by 2
2008 wk 8 · KC at NYJ	47 mph	41	52	Over by 11
2008 wk 8 · ATL at PHI	43 mph	45	41	Under by 4
2008 wk 2 · PIT at CLE	56 mph	43.5	16	Under by 27.5
2008 wk 2 · TEN at CIN	61 mph	37	31	Under by 6
2008 wk 1 · CIN at BAL	42 mph	37.5	27	Under by 10.5
2008 wk 1 · STL at PHI	41 mph	44	41	Under by 3
2007 wk 18 · WAS at SEA	48 mph	38.5	49	Over by 10.5
2007 wk 16 · NYJ at TEN	51 mph	37	16	Under by 21
2007 wk 16 · NYG at BUF	55 mph	32	59	Over by 27
2007 wk 16 · GB at CHI	51 mph	32	42	Over by 10
2007 wk 16 · CLE at CIN	55 mph	43	33	Under by 10
2007 wk 15 · SEA at CAR	40 mph	37	23	Under by 14
2007 wk 15 · BUF at CLE	49 mph	36.5	8	Under by 28.5
2007 wk 15 · JAX at PIT	46 mph	34.5	51	Over by 16.5
2007 wk 15 · ATL at TB	50 mph	37.5	40	Over by 2.5
2007 wk 13 · NE at BAL	43 mph	46	51	Over by 5
2007 wk 13 · NYG at CHI	46 mph	40	37	Under by 3
2007 wk 13 · SD at KC	43 mph	37	34	Under by 3
2007 wk 13 · HOU at TEN	41 mph	39.5	48	Over by 8.5
2007 wk 10 · SF at SEA	47 mph	37.5	24	Under by 13.5
2006 wk 18 · DAL at SEA	47 mph	48	41	Under by 7
2006 wk 17 · PIT at CIN	43 mph	45	40	Under by 5
2006 wk 17 · NE at TEN	44 mph	41	63	Over by 22
2006 wk 16 · TEN at BUF	40 mph	37.5	59	Over by 21.5
2006 wk 9 · OAK at SEA	51 mph	34	16	Under by 18
2006 wk 8 · NYJ at CLE	52 mph	37	33	Under by 4
2006 wk 8 · TB at NYG	46 mph	38.5	20	Under by 18.5
2006 wk 8 · JAX at PHI	48 mph	39	19	Under by 20
2006 wk 3 · DEN at NE	41 mph	38.5	24	Under by 14.5
2006 wk 3 · NYJ at BUF	44 mph	33	48	Over by 15
2005 wk 17 · HOU at SF	45 mph	37.5	37	Under by 0.5
2005 wk 17 · NYG at OAK	52 mph	44	51	Over by 7
2005 wk 15 · CLE at OAK	43 mph	40.5	16	Under by 24.5
2005 wk 12 · SF at TEN	41 mph	42.5	55	Over by 12.5
2005 wk 10 · SF at CHI	49 mph	33	26	Under by 7
2005 wk 9 · TEN at CLE	52 mph	39	34	Under by 5
2004 wk 16 · CAR at TB	52 mph	39	57	Over by 18
2004 wk 15 · HOU at CHI	41 mph	34	29	Under by 5
2004 wk 12 · PHI at NYG	55 mph	35.5	33	Under by 2.5
2004 wk 9 · NYJ at BUF	43 mph	34	39	Over by 5
2004 wk 8 · ARI at BUF	45 mph	33.5	52	Over by 18.5
2004 wk 6 · MIA at BUF	44 mph	30	33	Over by 3
2004 wk 3 · PIT at MIA	65 mph	31	16	Under by 15
2003 wk 15 · BAL at OAK	48 mph	38	32	Under by 6
2003 wk 14 · MIA at NE	44 mph	33.5	12	Under by 21.5
2003 wk 13 · MIA at DAL	40 mph	34.5	61	Over by 26.5
2003 wk 12 · OAK at KC	46 mph	44.5	51	Over by 6.5
2003 wk 11 · DET at SEA	44 mph	39.5	49	Over by 9.5
2002 wk 17 · KC at OAK	50 mph	44.5	24	Under by 20.5
2002 wk 15 · GB at SF	60 mph	42.5	34	Under by 8.5
2002 wk 13 · CAR at CLE	42 mph	34.5	19	Under by 15.5
2002 wk 13 · TEN at NYG	40 mph	34	61	Over by 27
2002 wk 11 · DEN at SEA	41 mph	42.5	40	Under by 2.5
2002 wk 10 · ATL at PIT	43 mph	42.5	68	Over by 25.5
2002 wk 10 · HOU at TEN	44 mph	39.5	27	Under by 12.5
2001 wk 17 · NE at CAR	44 mph	36	44	Over by 8
2001 wk 14 · DAL at SEA	49 mph	36.5	32	Under by 4.5
2001 wk 12 · BUF at SF	50 mph	44.5	35	Under by 9.5
2001 wk 12 · ARI at OAK	56 mph	44	65	Over by 21
2001 wk 12 · SD at SEA	53 mph	43	23	Under by 20
2001 wk 11 · MIA at BUF	55 mph	36	61	Over by 25
2001 wk 11 · CIN at CLE	56 mph	35.5	18	Under by 17.5
2001 wk 5 · NO at CAR	48 mph	39.5	52	Over by 12.5
2001 wk 5 · ARI at CHI	48 mph	39.5	33	Under by 6.5
2001 wk 5 · CLE at CIN	44 mph	35	38	Over by 3
2001 wk 5 · TB at TEN	53 mph	33	59	Over by 26
2000 wk 16 · NE at BUF	46 mph	39	23	Under by 16
2000 wk 16 · SD at CAR	51 mph	38.5	52	Over by 13.5
2000 wk 16 · TEN at CLE	43 mph	37	24	Under by 13
2000 wk 16 · DET at NYJ	63 mph	39.5	17	Under by 22.5
2000 wk 16 · OAK at SEA	42 mph	47.5	51	Over by 3.5
1999 wk 17 · IND at BUF	42 mph	42	37	Under by 5
1999 wk 17 · TB at CHI	42 mph	34	26	Under by 8
1999 wk 14 · PHI at DAL	40 mph	36.5	30	Under by 6.5
1999 wk 13 · SF at CIN	40 mph	39	74	Over by 35
1999 wk 9 · PIT at SF	46 mph	41.5	33	Under by 8.5
1999 wk 6 · WAS at ARI	44 mph	45.5	34	Under by 11.5
1999 wk 6 · CLE at JAX	41 mph	37.5	31	Under by 6.5

More weather angles

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