Week 7 Betting Card: Line Moves and Model Disagreements

Season: 2026 | Spreads are the home-team line from our daily log; "open" is the first observation we recorded. The model number is our walk-forward spread - where it disagrees with the market is information, not a pick.

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Where the Lines Moved

• NYG @ HOU (2026-10-25): HOU -5.5 on 2026-08-25 → HOU -10.5 now (5.0 points toward HOU).
• CIN @ BAL (2026-10-25): BAL -3.5 on 2026-08-30 → BAL +1.5 now (5.0 points away from BAL).
• TB @ CAR (2026-10-25): CAR +1.5 on 2026-08-25 → CAR -3.0 now (4.5 points toward CAR).
• CLE @ TEN (2026-10-25): TEN -2.5 on 2026-08-25 → TEN +1.5 now (4.0 points away from TEN).
• IND @ MIN (2026-10-25): MIN -2.5 on 2026-08-25 → MIN -6.5 now (4.0 points toward MIN).
• LAR @ LV (2026-10-25): LV +7.0 on 2026-10-16 → LV +4.5 now (2.5 points toward LV).

Model vs Market

• KC @ SEA: market says SEA -2.5, the model says SEA +2.2 - a 4.7-point gap in KC's favor.
• PIT @ NO: market says NO +3.5, the model says NO +0.9 - a 2.6-point gap in NO's favor.
• DAL @ PHI: market says PHI +4.5, the model says PHI +1.9 - a 2.6-point gap in PHI's favor.
• LAR @ LV: market says LV +4.5, the model says LV +2.0 - a 2.5-point gap in LV's favor.
• CIN @ BAL: market says BAL +1.5, the model says BAL -0.4 - a 1.9-point gap in BAL's favor.

The Full Board

Every game, every angle, the model's number vs the market: Betting hub → · Angle finder →