College football fair price

How the fair price is made

The College Sports Commission published the first official pay table on October 30, 2026: the median and 90th percentile of what paid Power 4 and other FBS players earn at each position, revenue share and cleared NIL together. A player keeps his rank among paid players at his position on our board; the table says what that rank is paid. It measured up to the 90th percentile, so above that our Model Price, which the reported deals grade best at the top, takes over by the 99th.

Graded on the same 15 reported 2026 deals, each against the number we had before the deal was in our data: the Model Price misses by a median 37% (5 within 30%), the fair price by 39% (6 within 30%). Reported deals are mostly stars, where the two numbers agree; the official table is what the fair price adds for everyone else. Every graded deal.

Three priced comps are the three college careers on our board that play most like his, from our comp engine, each with its fair price and any reported deal; where the engine has no profile for him (most linemen) they are the three players at his position, at other programs, priced closest to him. Below them is the nearest real reported deal in his position group, with its source.

Retention risk weighs three facts. His reported deal against his fair price (a deal well under the market is the one a richer program can beat). The seasons left on his five-year clock, from his recruiting class (a player in his final season leaves for the draft or graduation, not the portal). And how often his program loses players at his position to the portal, 2024 to 2026, against the Power 4 rate. A fair price in the top fifth adds a point: those are the players other programs come for. Today: 62 high, 1,572 medium, 3,123 low.

Source: College Sports Commission compensation report, published 2026-10-30, paid players only. We price Power 4 rosters, so the P4 columns apply. Recruits are never priced.