Explosive play rate is the share of an offense's plays that went for a big gain, most often defined as a run of 10 or more yards or a pass of 20 or more. Explosive plays are rare, roughly one in ten snaps, but they account for most of the expected points an offense adds in a game, which is why the rate is tracked next to success rate as the other half of efficiency.
Updated Sept. 16, 2026.
Through Week 1, the Jacksonville Jaguars lead the league in explosive play rate at 17.0%, better than 95.7% of every team's start through the same week since 1999. The Dallas Cowboys are last at 1.9% (2.2%).
Explosive here means a pass of 20+ yards or a run of 10+ yards.
| # | Team | explosive play rate | Plays |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 17.0% | 53 |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | 15.4% | 52 |
| 3 | Baltimore Ravens | 15.0% | 60 |
| 4 | Miami Dolphins | 14.0% | 50 |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 13.4% | 67 |
| 6 | Indianapolis Colts | 13.2% | 53 |
| 7 | Carolina Panthers | 12.9% | 62 |
| 8 | Chicago Bears | 12.9% | 70 |
| 9 | Seattle Seahawks | 12.8% | 47 |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles | 11.8% | 51 |
| 11 | New York Jets | 11.7% | 60 |
| 12 | Cincinnati Bengals | 11.3% | 62 |
| 13 | Detroit Lions | 11.0% | 73 |
| 14 | Houston Texans | 11.0% | 73 |
| 15 | Kansas City Chiefs | 10.9% | 64 |
| 16 | Atlanta Falcons | 10.5% | 57 |
| 17 | San Francisco 49ers | 9.4% | 64 |
| 18 | New Orleans Saints | 9.3% | 86 |
| 19 | Cleveland Browns | 8.2% | 49 |
| 20 | Los Angeles Chargers | 7.8% | 51 |
| 21 | Las Vegas Raiders | 7.8% | 64 |
| 22 | Washington Commanders | 7.4% | 68 |
| 23 | Arizona Cardinals | 7.2% | 69 |
| 24 | Los Angeles Rams | 7.1% | 56 |
| 25 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.6% | 61 |
| 26 | New York Giants | 6.2% | 65 |
| 27 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5.9% | 51 |
| 28 | New England Patriots | 4.5% | 67 |
| 29 | Tennessee Titans | 4.1% | 49 |
| 30 | Minnesota Vikings | 3.4% | 59 |
| 31 | Denver Broncos | 2.2% | 46 |
| 32 | Dallas Cowboys | 1.9% | 52 |
Most plays are small. The average snap gains a few yards and moves the expected score by a fraction of a point. Explosive plays are the exception: a 25-yard completion or a 15-yard run adds around a point of EPA on its own, and a handful of them decide a game. Offenses that generate them at a high rate score more, even with a middling success rate.
The definition varies by source. The most common is 10-plus rushing and 20-plus passing. Some use 12 and 16; some use 15 for both; some define it as any play with EPA above a threshold. The rankings are similar under each, but the raw percentages are not, so the definition has to travel with the number. This site uses 10-plus runs and 20-plus passes.
Explosive rate is noisier than success rate from one stretch to the next because the plays are rare, which is why a team that is winning on explosives alone tends to regress and a team winning on success rate tends to hold.
The 2023 49ers ran an offense near 13 percent explosive rate with a top-five success rate: consistent and dangerous, the profile of a Super Bowl team. A team at 13 percent explosive with a bottom-five success rate is boom-or-bust, feast one week and punt eight times the next.
Explosive play rate = (runs of 10+ yards + passes of 20+ yards) / total plays. Explosive pass rate and explosive run rate use the same thresholds over passes only or runs only. Defensive explosive rate allowed is the same number from the other side.
Under the most common definition, a run of 10 or more yards or a pass of 20 or more. Different analysts use different thresholds, so check which one a number is using before comparing it to another source.
Under the 10/20 definition, the league averages a little under 10 percent of plays. Above 12 percent over a season is elite; below 8 percent is an offense that has to grind every drive.
Success rate is the more repeatable half and the better predictor. Explosive rate is where the points come from on a given Sunday. The best offenses are high in both; the ones that fool people in September are high in explosives only.
Category: Stats & Analytics. Part of the StickToTheModel NFL Encyclopedia.